tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-388591612023-10-28T08:23:52.870+01:00The AsparagusTHE FOREIGN AFFAIRS BLOGRichardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.comBlogger254125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-32561271618674624962011-08-11T14:20:00.002+01:002011-08-11T14:23:38.575+01:00The End Of The AsparagusAfter more than four years and 250 posts, I've decided to close this blog down. For quite a while I've been busy with my other websites and have struggled to find the time to update it very often, and so I'm going to end it here. However, I'll leave all of the posts online as an archive. Thanks for reading!
<br />Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-43140324884526080952011-06-29T14:36:00.002+01:002011-06-29T14:50:32.379+01:00No Sign Of Easy Solution To Libya ConflictFrance <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/06/29/uk-libya-idUKTRE75O1ER20110629">has reportedly begun</a> supplying weapons on the quiet to the rebels in Libya, in an attempt to help them break the apparent stalemate in their battle against Colonel Gaddafi's forces. According to a source quoted in Le Figaro, France took the action without consulting its partners in the NATO bombing of the regime, because "there was no other way to proceed."<br /><br />It's been slow going over the past three months for France, Britain and their allies. Forced to intervene to prevent a possible massacre when Gaddafi's forces reached the gates of the rebel-held Benghazi, the notion that Gaddafi's regime might fall quickly under pressure from the rebel forces on the ground and the NATO warplanes in the air now looks wildly optimistic. The popular uprising against Gaddafi which western leaders undoubtedly hoped for has not materialised, and instead of being on the side of the Libyan people, NATO rather appears to be merely on one side in a civil war. And the weaker side at that.<br /><br />How NATO extracts itself from the conflict is less clear. But for a lesson from recent history, we can look a little further to the north in Bosnia. There, although the country's borders have remained in tact, largely separate administrations exist for the Serb-dominated areas, and those populated by Muslims and Croats. Critics say it's a solution which has put the conflict into deep freeze rather than solved it, but at least nobody's killing each other anymore.<br /><br />Diplomats are reluctant to encourage the break-up of any nation, for fear that could spread instability to neighbouring countries, and the preferred option for those looking at Libya from both near and far would undoubtedly be it to remain in one piece. But when the internationally-brokered peace deal finally arrives, as surely it must, don't be surprised if it's a horribly complicated mess of regional assemblies and bureaucracies, that keeps everyone more or less apart, and just about happy enough to avoid reaching for their guns.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-43190357449148080562011-05-02T10:56:00.003+01:002011-05-02T11:43:30.473+01:00Bin Laden's Death A Part Of Al Qaeda's Slow DeclineOsama bin Laden <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/05/02/uk-obama-statement-idUKTRE7410AE20110502">is dead</a>. The leader of Al Qaeda was apparently shot and killed at a compound in Pakistan by American special forces. He'd been in hiding for almost a decade since ordering the 9/11 attacks on the United States.<br /><br />The death of bin Laden is undoubtedly symbolic. As well as being the leader of the Al Qaeda terrorist network, he was its name and, through the video messages which had such a global impact in the months and years after 9/11, he was its face.<br /><br />But, in practical terms, his death will have little impact on a network which has already been in gradual decline for some years. Bin Laden has been holed up in a house with little opportunity to communicate with the outside world, so his influence on Al Qaeda's people and operations has probably been extremely limited since 2001.<br /><br />Besides, Al Qaeda, which roughly translates as "the base," has never been a conventional military or guerrilla type terrorist group, such as the Tamil Tigers or IRA. It's always been a very loose affilitation of groups in assorted parts of the world, often with wildly differing views and methods. The role of Bin Laden and his chief lieutenants has usually been one of financier, facilitator and, though his favourite philosophical notion of "propaganda by deed" - suicide bombings to you and me - inspiration.<br /><br />The death of Bin Laden will weaken the idea of Al Qaeda as a central network still further. Groups such as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which is primarily based in Yemen, will carry on regardless. But with the Arab Spring suggesting that, in some countries at least, there's a desire for a democratic rather than Islamist future, those groups increasingly look like they're alongside Bin Laden on the wrong side of history.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-90008612060930918632011-04-15T12:53:00.003+01:002011-04-15T13:01:15.155+01:00Croatia's Hero Jailed For War CrimesOne of the most popular figures in Croatia, Ante Gotovina, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13092438">has been jailed for 24 years</a> for war crimes carried out against the Serbs during the end of the Balkan War in 1995. Another man got 18 years, while a third was cleared, following an international trial in The Hague.<br /><br />The Gotovina case has been a prickly one for successive Croatian governments. As the man who led the Croat Army to a series of victories over the Serbs in the summer of 1995, as the Serbs were themselves under pressure from belated international air strikes, he was and is something of a national hero. But hundreds of Serb civilians died during that campaign, as they were forced by the Croats from the Krajina region, traditionally a Serb enclave (the word Krajina means frontier).<br /><br />And it's offences relating to that which have landed Gotovina in prison after all these years. But the real reason is much larger. Croatia wants to join the EU, and soon, like its neighbour Slovenia did back in 2004. Failing to finish the unfinished business of the war was a major sticking point preventing that happening.<br /><br />If it weren't for the prospect of EU membership, Gotovina would surely still be at large. But that carrot has proved too strong for the Croatian government to resist, even if it means temporary unpopularity among many Croat citizens. Perhaps one day, something similar will help the Serbs bring Ratko Mladic and others to justice.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-72142104670763157672011-03-31T14:11:00.002+01:002011-03-31T14:29:38.227+01:00No Compromise For Syria's AssadWhile the world has been largely watching Libya, Syria has become the latest government to face protests as part of the so-called Arab Spring. But despite sacking his government, President Assad this week signalled he wouldn't be offering much in the way of compromises to his internal opponents, as he insisted long-standing emergency laws <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/30/uk-syria-idUKTRE72N2RZ20110330">would remain in place</a>.<br /><br />The resignation of the entire government wasn't nearly as big a concession as it sounds. Control of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ba%27ath_Party">Ba'athist</a> Syria has always been concentrated in the hands of the President and a few cronies, including those who run the country's security apparatus. It was ever thus. The last serious attempt at an uprising, 29 years ago, ended in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hama_massacre">an extraordinary massacre</a> ordered by the current President Assad's father.<br /><br />When Assad Junior came to power in 2000, there was some hope he might prove to be a reforming leader. Western-educated and with a British-born wife, he was considered a somewhat reluctant President, who only got his chance after his elder brother <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basil_Assad">Basil</a> died in a mysterious car crash.<br /><br />But those hopes have been gradually extinguished during his decade in office. He might not be about to massacre opponents as his father did, but President Assad is clearly determined to retain as much personal power as he's always had. If his regime ultimately falls as part of the Arab Spring, and that prospect seems an awfully long way off despite the demonstrations, it'll be quite a demonstration of how the region is changing.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-41776304975618052982011-03-07T16:25:00.002+00:002011-03-07T16:35:56.744+00:00Colonel Gaddafi Digs InLibyan military forces loyal to Colonel Gaddafi have spent another day <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/07/uk-libya-idUKLDE71Q0MP20110307">counter-attacking rebel positions</a> in the east of the country. After large parts of the country fell during the early stages of the uprising, it's now the regime forces which are making most of the running.<br /><br />Libya is different to Egypt and Tunisia, the two other North African countries in which autocratic leaders have recently departed in the face of public opposition. Part of it is down to Colonel Gaddafi himself, a man habitually described as mad, or at the very least unpredictable. Despite suggestions he might flee to Venezuela, he has remained in Tripoli in an attempt to see off the uprising, perhaps because he refuses to believe many of his people really have turned against him, and perhaps because after 42 years in power he simply can't contemplate leaving.<br /><br />But part of it is also down to the internal structures of Libya. In Egypt, it was the powerful military, and its refusal to turn on the protestors, which spelled the end for President Mubarak. However, Libya has a relatively weak military, a legacy of Colonel Gaddafi wanting to prevent a coup of the sort that first brought him to power.<br /><br />There are also large numbers of African mercenaries on Gaddafi's side, reportedly being paid $200 a day to fight. These are desperate men who have no qualms about attacking rebels and civilians. The international disgust about Libyan forces "firing on their own people" slightly misses the point. The foreign fighters aren't firing on their own people as such. They're doing what they're being paid to do, and as a result are much more likely to remain loyal to Gaddafi.<br /><br />Any hopes of a relatively bloodless revolution and transition to democracy have already been dashed. Years and possibly decades of fighting, negotiations, peace plans, and international involvement now look very likely.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-64356240288295381492011-01-26T14:44:00.002+00:002011-01-26T14:51:19.311+00:00Egypt Tries To Stop The Dominoes TopplingEgypt has said it's <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE70O18Y20110126?pageNumber=1">going to ban protests</a> against the regime of Hosni Mubarak, the long-standing autocratic ruler of that country. The decision follows several days of tense demonstrations, which in turn came after the ousting of the leader of nearby Tunisia, amid public anger over rising prices and a lack of everyday freedoms.<br /><br />Mr Mubarak, and other leaders in the Arab world, will doubtless have been left very alarmed by what went on earlier this month in Tunis. In the short-term they will do what they can to prevent a 'domino effect' of regimes falling across north Africa and the Middle East, of the kind we saw in Eastern Europe in 1989. The draconian restrictions on public gatherings are, the Egyptians hope, a way of doing that without resorting to violence, in a way which will allow the momentum of the Tunisia revolt to dissipate, easing the immediate threat to the Cairo regime.<br /><br />However, what happened in Tunisia may have changed the long-term politics of the region forever. Rulers such as Mubarak have long been supported by western nations, and the US in particular, because they have been seen as strongmen. Better to have a stable leader who we find a bit disasteful, the rationale goes, than a regime packed by unpredictable Islamic fundamentalists.<br /><br />If attempts to establish a more democratic system in Tunisia, with a government featuring politicials from all sides, prove successful, the argument that hardline Arab leaders are the only thing preventing the region sliding into the grip of extremists will lose currency. Mubarak and the rest might have to open up a bit to retain western support, and stay in power.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-5182555754525756202010-12-10T22:06:00.003+00:002010-12-10T22:18:10.138+00:00Russia's Double Act Ready To Go On And OnRussia's President Dmitry Medvedev has dropped a big hint that he's planning on standing again in the next presidential election in 2012. A senior aide <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11971851">has told the BBC</a> that he believes Mr Medvedev does want a second term in the job.<br /><br />This is a bit of a surprise. Mr Medvedev was plucked from relative obscurity by his predecessor, Vladimir Putin, to run for office in 2008. Mr Putin was prevented from doing so by Russia's constitution, which limits presidents to two consecutive terms. Mr Putin has since served as prime minister, but seeing as the constitution wouldn't prevent him becoming president again in 2012, it had been widely assumed that Mr Medvedev was basically marking time in The Kremlin before the real power behind the throne returned to the top job.<br /><br />A former senior figure with state-owned energy giant Gazprom, Mr Medvedev has overseen an increasingly tough policy when it comes to oil and gas supplies. Indeed, he has continued the general theme of creating a strong Russia, keen to challenge rather than kowtow to the west, begun during the presidency of Mr Putin. It couldn't be more different from the Yeltsin years of the 1990s, when Russia and its economy struggled badly to adapt to the post-Soviet Union era, and its national pride took a fearful battering.<br /><br />If Mr Medvedev does indeed try to stay on, it probably won't signal much of a change in that approach. Not least because Mr Putin would almost certainly have to agree that it would be a good idea. After all, Mr Medvedev doesn't appear to have much of a powerbase of his own in Russian politics and society. But if he does decide to go on and on, it would at least be a sign that Russia is now ruled more by a double act than primarily Mr Putin alone. The pair of them could dominate Moscow for a generation to come.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-86683007923018487872010-11-04T16:52:00.002+00:002010-11-04T17:13:19.655+00:00Midterm Setback Not All Bad For ObamaPresident Obama's Democrats have suffered a series of bad results in the US midterm elections. They lost control of the House of Representatives to the Republicans, and only just managed to hang on to the Senate. The Republican politician who will be the next House Speaker, John Boehner, has said <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A244T20101103">cutting spending is his top priority</a> for the months ahead.<br /><br />As bleak as the results seem for Mr Obama, there's an argument to be made that Tuesday's voting makes his re-election to the presidency in 2012 more rather than less likely. For a start, the Republicans now have to start running the country alongside the Democrats. Over the last two years, when the Democrats have controlled both houses of Congress and the presidency, the Republicans have had few political levers to pull beyond opposing much of the Democrats' agenda. It may have given them the nickname of 'the party of no,' but it helped on Tuesday, as voters squarely blamed the Democrats for the sluggish nature of America's economic recovery.<br /><br />But now they've got at least some national power back, the Republicans will have to go about actually governing instead of hurling criticism from the sidelines. This means that, if the economy continues to struggle in the coming months, the Democrats will try to force their opponents to share the blame. Also, with many Republican politicians having swept into office thanks to support from the right-wing Tea Party faction, any compromising of campaign promises in order to get laws passed could lead to a backlash against those same Republicans who are riding high for the time being. If Republicans will find it hard to go on saying no, they might find trying to govern just as difficult.<br /><br />Two more elements are worth considering as we look ahead to the next presidential election. It's still two years away, and even if growth in the American economy remains slow for a good while to come, there's a good chance it'll have improved significantly by 2012. Just as Mr Obama has been blamed this week for poor economic conditions (when his name wasn't even on the ballot), you can bet he'll do everything he can to take the credit for whatever improvements we see between now and polling day.<br /><br />Then there's the big choice facing Republicans, namely who their candidate will be. While the highly energised Tea Party supporters would prefer a right-winger in their own image like Sarah Palin or Jim DeMint, the Republicans' chances of winning over independent and middle-ground voters would probably be better served by picking someone more moderate, like the rather-dull-but-well-known Mitt Romney. It's difficult to see any of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2012">potential contenders</a> beating Mr Obama though. Yes he (probably) can, again.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-9614782848166988392010-09-24T22:54:00.002+01:002010-09-24T23:11:56.779+01:00Raul Castro Opens Up Cuba, SlowlyCuba is changing. President Raul Castro <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68N3OG20100924">has revealed plans</a> to dramatically increase private sector employment in the Communist country. Ordinary Cubans will be allowed to set up their own businesses in dozens of different fields, and even hire employees.<br /><br />Mr Castro says all this is to help "continue perfecting socialism." What he really means is that the measures are to help keep him and his regime in power. Raul has always been more open-minded about this sort of thing than his brother Fidel, who he succeeded as President in 2007 when the older man's health deteriorated. It was Raul who persuaded Fidel to open the country to limited tourism in the early 1990s, when Cuba faced ruin after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the end of the cash supply from Moscow which had seen it through the previous quarter of a century.<br /><br />Although many restrictions have been placed on tourism in Cuba, even down to keeping a separate currency for foreigners, it's proved impossible to stifle the curiosity and jealousy of some locals. Those who have access to even small amounts of the special tourists' money, such as waiters and tour guides, can become far wealthier than their neighbours. Allowing western cash into Cuba may have saved the country's economy, but it has created real inequalities in its supposedly equal society.<br /><br />So Raul has chosen to widen his reforms, to keep his people happy, and make the country a bit richer. He can get away with this because of his personal credibility and connection to the Revolution, something many Cubans remain proud of. Raul was there alongside his brother, Che Guevara and the rest throughout it all. With Fidel ailing, he's the only man left with the clout to carry through such reforms.<br /><br />But this is also about what happens when the Castros are dead, probably not too far off now. It's likely that, without that personal connection to the Revolution, a future Cuban leader would struggle to command the country and its people in the same way the Castros have been able to. Wide-ranging reforms would have been extremely difficult to carry through without the danger of a counter-revolution, and the collapse of the Communist regime.<br /><br />Raul Castro is probably banking that, if he changes Cuba just enough before he goes, he'll give his successor a better chance of keeping Cuba together, and keeping it Communist. The irony is, these latest reforms mean Cuba is becoming less and less Communist by the day.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-43045723927505954282010-08-24T16:30:00.002+01:002010-08-24T16:42:46.305+01:00Hotel Attack Points To Deepening Crisis In SomaliaSix Somalian MPs are among at least 32 people killed in a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-11068805">gun and grenade attack on a hotel</a> in the capital, Mogadishu. The Islamist group al-Shabaab has said it carried out the attack.<br /><br />Today's incident is the worst outbreak of fighting since yesterday's announcement from al-Shabaab that it was beginning a new offensive against the African Union forces who have been trying to prop up the country's transitional government. The Islamists include elements of the old UIC regime, which briefly ran Somalia in 2006, until they were forced out by US-backed Ethiopian troops because of their hardline Islamist policies. Since then, the transitional government has not managed to impose much authority on Somalia, large areas of which remain more or less lawless.<br /><br />The attack shows that the threat posed by al-Shabaab is perhaps even more serious than had been thought. The hotel was in one of the few areas of Mogadishu considered safe. For al-Shabaab to strike in such brazen and deadly fashion is further evidence of the group's growing strength. The notion that al-Shabaab's latest offensive could result in the complete overthrow of the transitional government, and the defeat of the African Union forces, now seems to be a definite possibility.<br /><br />If that happens, the US and others who don't want to see an Islamist regime re-established in Somalia, may decide they have little choice but to intervene, perhaps once again using the Ethiopian army. The crisis in Somalia, which has been largely ignored by the rest of the world in recent years, could be about to return to the front pages.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-80495551538912122032010-07-12T11:51:00.003+01:002010-07-12T12:02:25.163+01:00Somalia's Islamists Strike In UgandaDozens of people <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/10593771.stm">have been killed</a> in a double bomb attack in the capital of Uganda, Kampala. A rugby club and an Ethiopian restaurant were the targets of the blasts, which targeted football fans watching the World Cup final. Somalia's Islamist al-Shabaab group is already being blamed.<br /><br />The al-Shabaab organisation is sometimes described as having links to al-Qaeda, although as far as we know that's only true in the sense that it shares some of the aims and philosophies of Osama bin Laden's network, rather than anything more tangible like money or weapons. It formed out of the remnants of the UIC, a hardline Islamic group which briefly ran lawless Somalia in 2006, until it was overthrown by the US-backed Ethiopian army for being rather too much like the Taliban for Washington's liking.<br /><br />The decision to target an Ethiopian restaurant therefore hints at al-Shabaab being behind the Kampala attacks, as does the choice of Uganda itself, as Uganda has supplied some of the African Union forces currently trying to protect what little central government there is to speak of in Somalia.<br /><br />But the most significant thing about last night's attacks are their scale. al-Shabaab has grown in strength of late, partly bolstered by cash flowing into the country through ransoms paid to Somali pirates. Last winter, al-Shabaab was linked to an attack on the man responsible for the Prophet Mohammed cartoons at his home in Denmark. If that incident suggested the group was developing the ambition and capability to strike at targets abroad, the Uganda blasts confirm that both of those factors are only increasing with time. It could once again be up to US-backed Ethiopian forces to move into al-Shabaab's heartland in rural Somalia, to try to reverse that growing strength.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-25622843106647334042010-06-09T15:48:00.003+01:002010-06-09T16:06:26.373+01:00Republican Split Could Help Obama's DemocratsAnother series of primary contests took place across the US yesterday, as voters from both main parties picked their candidates to fight various seats in Congress and Governorships in the mid-term elections this November. Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6570T320100609">defied predictions</a> to win her party's nomination to defend her Senate seat, but generally incumbent politicians have been struggling.<br /><br />Normally this anti-incumbency mood would be bad for the party in power, which in this case is the Democrats. They hold not just the presidency, but also comfortable majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. However, established Republicans are having even more trouble winning their party's nominations, as right-wing rivals emerge from the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement">Tea Party movement</a> to challenge them.<br /><br />This is much better news for President Obama and his Democrats. While the Tea Party folks offer enough energy and enthusiasm to get their candidates selected in Republican primaries, several seem to be too right-wing to have much chance against their Democrat opponents in November. Kentucky offers a classic example, where right-winger <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rand_Paul">Rand Paul</a> beat an establishment rival to take the Republican nomination for a Senate seat, only to get quickly bogged down in a race row following some confusing comments he made about civil rights law.<br /><br />This all means that several unpopular Democrats may be able to hold on to their seats in November, precisely because the Republicans have picked candidates which are too right-wing to beat them in a general election. The challenge for the Republicans is to turn the enthusiasm of the Tea Party people into votes, and that could prove to be a tougher political test than anything the Democrats face.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-11230208978764913552010-05-11T12:10:00.002+01:002010-05-11T12:43:33.358+01:00Court Eases Tensions In ZimbabweA court in Zimbabwe <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE64921X20100510">has acquitted</a> a senior figure in the Movement for Democratic Change of terrorism charges. Former white farmer Roy Bennett is the treasurer-general of the MDC party, which is engaged in a fractious power-sharing arrangement with the Zanu-PF party of Robert Mugabe. The charges against Mr Bennett has been one of the main sources of tension between the two sides, but a judge threw the case out yesterday saying there wasn't enough evidence.<br /><br />This is an important decision, because it shows that the judiciary in Zimbabwe is independent. The charges against Mr Bennett may have been trumped up by Zanu-PF sympathisers in the police and prosecution service, but the fact the case got nowhere in the courts suggests they may think again before bringing such politically motivated cases in the future.<br /><br />If the judiciary in Zimbabwe can remain independent and stable, that makes it more likely other institutions will start to display the same qualities. Many have long been in the grip of Zanu-PF, with newspaper editors, police chiefs and plenty of others too frightened for their own futures to do anything other than Mr Mugabe's bidding. This visible independence of Zimbabwe's courts is therefore not just a step forward for the country's legal system, but for its wider democracy. Little by little, Zimbabwe is recovering.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-28773190459668730172010-03-29T15:51:00.002+01:002010-03-29T16:06:49.163+01:00Suicide Bombers Return To MoscowTwo suicide attacks <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8592190.stm">have been carried out</a> on the Moscow underground. Dozens of people have been reported killed. It's believed the bombers were women, and suspicion has already fallen on Chechen terrorists.<br /><br />The choice of one of the targets in particular is significant. One of the explosions hit the station underneath the Lubyanka, the infamous former home of the Soviet secret service, the KGB, and still used by its successor, the FSB. The message from whoever was behind the attacks is clear enough. Nowhere in Russia, not even important buildings belonging to the central government, is safe.<br /><br />There are plenty of reasons for assuming this is the work of the Chechens. First, women were involved, as they were in attacks on the Moscow underground and two airliners back in 2004 (around the same time as the Beslan Massacre). Those incidents were blamed on the so-called 'Black Widows' of Chechen soldiers killed fighting the Russians. Also, the Russian military has recently had a series of succeses in its campaign against Islamic separatists fighting in Chechnya and nearby republics, so it was a timely moment for the rebels to show they're still capable of striking back. One of the main websites used by Chechens, <a href="http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2010/03/29/11742.shtml">Kavkaz Center</a>, is already repeating a familiar allegation, that the attacks were in fact false flag operations carried out by the Russian security services themselves.<br /><br />As for what happens next, history tells us the Chechens will probably have more spectacular attacks planned. Despite the inevitable tightening of security across Russia, the country and its transport infrastructure is so vast, it will be almost impossible for the Kremlin to protect every possible target. Instead, expect President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin to order high-profile military retaliations in and around Chechnya, to shore up both public confidence, and their own reputations.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-6097253596635058472010-03-01T20:04:00.002+00:002010-03-01T20:20:31.764+00:00Ganic Arrest Shows That Serbia Remembers The Past, TooA former senior Bosnian politician, Ejup Ganic, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8544374.stm">has been arrested</a> at Heathrow Airport over alleged war crimes. A warrant for his extradition had been issued by Serbia, in relation to an attack on Yugoslav Army forces in Sarajevo at the start of the 1992-95 war. Mr Ganic has appeared in court, and it's now up to Serbia to produce evidence supporting its extradition request before anything more can happen.<br /><br />First, the incident itself. Back in 1992, when Bosnia declared independence and was suddenly at war with what remained of Yugoslavia, one early problem was the presence of Yugoslav Army soldiers who had been based in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo. A deal was agreed allowing them to be escorted out of the city by UN peacekeepers to a nearby Serb-controlled area. But hours before this was due to happen, rumours spread that the Bosnian Muslim political leader Alija Izetbegovic had been arrested by Bosnian Serb forces. Bosnian Muslims then ambushed the Yugoslav Army column on Sarajevo's Dobrovoljacka Street.<br /><br />That much is more or less agreed on. But, as always when discussing the Balkan War, there are differences of opinion about the numbers. Serbia claims more than 40 soldiers were killed, the Bosnians say it was much less. Serbia also alleges that some of those dead soldiers had been wounded in the initial ambush, and were executed later. The charge facing Mr Ganic is that he helped organise this, something he denies. He's the most senior of 19 Bosnian officials who were <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLQ582113">recently charged</a> by a Serbian court over the incident.<br /><br />We don't know what evidence Serbia has got, so it's difficult to say whether Mr Ganic or anybody else will ever stand trial. But what we can say is that Serbia is doing its best to correct the record of history a bit. With the war crimes case against ex-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic resuming in The Hague <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/01/radovan-karadzic-dissident-bosnian-war">today</a>, Serbia is taking the opportunity to remind us that it wasn't the only side which did bad things during the war. Just as importantly, political and judicial leaders in Belgrade want to remind their own public that they've not forgotten about events which remain controversial and painful for many Serbs. Serbia is fed up being the villain.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-47943400985863107602010-02-11T16:27:00.004+00:002010-02-11T16:58:55.404+00:00Victory For Viktor As Ukraine's Future Is No Longer OrangeUkraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8510070.stm">is trying to carry on</a> as normal, despite her apparent defeat in Sunday's presidential election. It appears she may try to challenge the official result, which gave victory to Viktor Yanukovych. But with international observers saying the election was fair, her hopes of getting the outcome changed seem remote.<br /><br />Don't be surprised if these names ring a vague bell with you. Five years ago it was these two politicians, along with the outgoing President, Viktor Yuschenko, who were at the centre of events surrounding the so-called Orange Revolution. Then, the pro-Russia Mr Yanukovych won a blatantly rigged vote. After widespread public protests, a new vote was held, won comfortably by the pro-Western Mr Yuschenko, with Mrs Tymoshenko at his side. Russia fumed as another of the former Soviet states moved away from Moscow's influence towards Europe and the West.<br /><br />But although the future seemed bright, the Orange Revolution turned sour. Unsurprisingly, Mr Yuschenko's years in power have been marked by worsening relations with Russia, including high-profile battles over energy supplies. Yet there's also been growing frustration in Western countries, and among Mr Yuschenko's own supporters, at his failure to actually get things done in office. He didn't follow through on his promises to tackle corruption, nor did he adequately deal with the bitterness and domestic political deadlock that was the legacy of the Orange Revolution. Perhaps most devastatingly, he failed to find a way of setting Ukraine on a path to EU membership. He leaves office humiliated, having finished a distant fifth in the first round of presidential voting last month.<br /><br />So, now the Kremlin has finally got its man, we can expect Ukraine to edge back towards what diplomats call Russia's "sphere of influence." This is an old-fashioned phrase which basically means Ukraine will be friendly towards Moscow. Those arguments about energy pipelines and suchlike should be replaced by extra trade with Russia and other regional allies, such as Belarus. But Mr Yanukovych can't afford to simply do whatever Russia wants. There are plenty of businesses in Ukraine which depend on trade with the EU and the West, and he'll have to defend their interests too if he's serious about dragging Ukraine out of its current deep economic crisis. If people still can't find jobs or put food on the table, the novelty of a new government will soon wear off. It's time for Mr Yanukovych to get to work.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-15443100891821161622010-02-01T08:53:00.002+00:002010-02-01T09:08:07.829+00:00No Closer To A Deal In CyprusUN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60U1HH20100131">has arrived in Cyprus</a>, as he attempts to put new life into efforts to solve one of Europe's longest-running disputes. The latest round of peace talks have been taking place for more than a year, but the problems which have split the island in two <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_history_of_Cyprus">go back decades</a>.<br /><br />To sum it up briefly, Cyprus used to be part of the Ottoman Empire (now Turkey), until it became part of the British Empire. Most of the people in Cyprus are Greek, and during the 1950s an insurgency aimed at overthrowing British rule and uniting Cyprus with Greece took place, ending in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z%C3%BCrich_and_London_Agreement">a deal</a> which led to Cyprus becoming independent, something neither the Greeks nor the Turks especially wanted. Later, as the Turkish government began to worry that Greece was moving to bring Cyprus under its control, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus">it invaded</a> the north of the country, where most of the Turks lived. That was 36 years ago, and all that time there have been two Cypruses, the Greek in the south and the Turkish in the north, and that hasn't made anyone particularly happy, either.<br /><br />There have been various attempts to thrash out some kind of better deal since, but all have failed. This latest round of talks had seemed more likely to succeed than most, not least because the political leaders of both communities in Cyprus seemed keen on it. But enough members of their electorates are not for keen for the talks to be fraught with political risk, and the Turkish-Cypriot leader seems likely to lose an election in April to a hardliner. So if there's going to be progress, it needs to be in the next few weeks, which is why Mr Ban is in town. But he's no miracle-worker, the chances of a significant breakthrough remain very remote.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-9564593892665359322010-01-14T13:25:00.003+00:002010-01-14T13:36:25.821+00:00Earthquake Is A Devastating Setback For HaitiTens of thousands of people <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60B5IZ20100114">are now thought to have died</a> in the earthquake which struck the Caribbean nation of Haiti. Despite offers of help from around the world, rescue efforts have been hindered by a lack of infrastructure in what is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere.<br /><br />Aside from the terrible human cost, this is a setback Haiti will struggle to recover from. There were high hopes back in 1986 when a popular uprising finally overthrew the dictatorship of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Claude_Duvalier">Baby Doc Duvalier</a>, but in the years since a mixture of abortive elections, coups and regular violence has meant Haiti has been so unstable, the lives of its citizens haven't improved all that much.<br /><br />Or at least that was the case until recently. With former President Clinton on board as US special envoy, and following the decision of Haiti's debtors to write off huge amounts of money the country was never going to be able to pay back, things finally seemed to be looking up. And then the quake hit. Once Haitians get over the initial shock of this terrible natural disaster, they must hope that the world doesn't just repair the damage, but also commits to helping the government build the kind of society that just didn't exist there before. If that doesn't happen, Haiti will go on being the worst of the west.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-39501367023526571572010-01-02T13:30:00.003+00:002010-01-02T13:51:24.561+00:00The Terror Threat From Somalia And YemenTwo failed attacks, both apparently carried out by alleged Islamist terrorists, have featured prominently in global headlines over Christmas and New Year. On Christmas Day, a Nigerian man is suspected of trying to blow up a plane as it landed at Detroit. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BU36420100102">The US now says</a> the suspect has links to an al-Qaeda group in Yemen. And in Denmark, a man with alleged ties to Somalian Islamist group al-Shabaab <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8437652.stm">broke into the home</a> of the artist responsible for the infamous <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jyllands-Posten_Muhammad_cartoons_controversy">Prophet Mohammed cartoons</a>. The man has now been charged with attempted manslaughter.<br /><br />And so, Yemen and Somalia are suddenly back on the radar of world leaders, with phrases such as 'incubators of terrorism' being bandied around. We're more used to hearing that sort of thing in relation to Afghanistan and north-west Pakistan, where there was also a recent <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8437473.stm">deadly terrorist attack</a> during a volleyball game. The arguments about how to deal with the security problems in those countries are often debated, but how western countries might deal with the threat posed by terrorist groups operating out of Yemen and Somalia hasn't received much public discussion in recent years. The recent attacks mean that will surely now change, but there seem to be even fewer potential solutions than there are for Afghanistan and Pakistan.<br /><br />Somalia's al-Shabaab formed out of the remnants of the UIC, a Taliban-style Islamist group which briefly ruled Somalia in 2006 until it was overthrown by US-backed Ethiopian forces for, well, being a bit too much like the Taliban. Since then, there's been little central government to speak of in Somalia, which is why pirates have been able to operate with such impunity from Somali ports. Some of the pirates' cash ends up going to al-Shabaab, and the Danish incident demonstrates it now has both the ability and willingness to attempt terrorist attacks abroad. If further international attacks take place, the US may be forced to turn once again to its Ethiopian allies for help in fighting al-Shabaab, the deployment of US troops to Somalia being still far too sensitive a subject following the 1993 <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mogadishu_%281993%29">Black Hawk Down</a> incident.<br /><br />As for Yemen, there is at least a central government, and the US has given it tens of millions of aid dollars to help root out terrorists since the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing">attack on the USS Cole</a> in Aden harbour in 2000. Following the failed Christmas Day bombing in Detroit, expect more help for the Yemeni authorities, including more US drones flying over remote parts of the country in an attempt to find terrorist hideouts. The solution to the Yemen problem may be a little more straightforward than that in Somalia, but the potential scale of the Detroit attack shows that al-Qaeda in Yemen already has the ambition to strike at major targets in the US homeland. The Obama administration knows it must act quickly in Yemen before the next terrorist plot becomes a reality.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-58099148824406340592009-12-10T20:42:00.002+00:002009-12-10T20:57:10.161+00:00Another Embarrassing Failure For Russia's New MissileSome lights in the night sky over Norway <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/12/10/norway.ufo.light/index.html">caused a bit of confusion</a> earlier today. Despite excited suggestions a UFO or Santa Claus himself might have been to blame, the truth is a bit less thrilling. It was the latest failed test of Russia's new nuclear missile system, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSM-56_Bulava">Bulava</a>.<br /><br />It's thought to be the 13th time the missile's failed to work. To say this is embarrassing for the country's leaders in the Kremlin is putting it mildly. Russia has invested a fortune in the Bulava in recent years as it strives to update its ageing Soviet-era military hardware. The Russians are also working on a new fleet of nuclear submarines to carry the Bulava. So, it has to work.<br /><br />But the Bulava's success isn't just a matter of getting value for the Kremlin's money. It's more a question of Russian national prestige. The reputation of the Russian military took a big hit almost a decade ago when the decrepit Kursk submarine <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_submarine">sank with all hands</a>. Since then, Russia's President (and now Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin has tried to win popularity at home and gain respect (and concessions) abroad by building up Russia's strength in various ways reminiscent of how the USSR used to behave. The Bulava project is part of the military aspect of that strategy. Unless it can be made to work soon, both the Kremlin and Mr Putin personally, will start to look pretty foolish, and that's something they're desperate to avoid.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-47278069803422279102009-12-02T21:48:00.002+00:002009-12-02T22:13:11.458+00:00The Big Question In Afghanistan Is What Happens After 2011President Obama has finally made his <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8389849.stm">long-awaited announcement</a> on the future of US strategy in Afghanistan. He's sending an extra 30,000 American troops, with the health warning that they will begin to withdraw in 2011. The decision has met with a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE5B118U20091202">sceptical response</a> in Afghanistan itself.<br /><br />The stated aim of the western military involvement in Afghanistan is to fight Al Qaeda and its Taliban allies, and make it harder for Islamist terrorists to attack targets in the west. One of the major criticisms of the increased western involvement in recent months is that now the troops are focusing not just on fighting the west's enemies, but also on trying to protect and strengthen the Afghan government (which, as the controversial recent election showed, is widely corrupt). Critics call it 'mission creep' and accuse Mr Obama and others of trying to find new reasons to justify their involvement in Afghanistan, when they should have pulled out already.<br /><br />That's believed to be the view of the US Vice-President, Joe Biden. But for leaders like Mr Obama and Gordon Brown, there's more to consider, namely what'll happen when the western troops withdraw. Now that Mr Obama has named 2011 as the start of the end of the mission (as an answer to one of the big criticisms of America's mission in Iraq, namely that there was no exit strategy), that deadline will dominate the way all interested parties act in Afghanistan. And it may end up to the Taliban's advantage.<br /><br />The Taliban now knows that, if it can avoid complete obliteration over the next couple of years (with help from sympathisers in Pakistan, this shouldn't be a problem), the western troops will go home. Then it can take on the Afghan government. The Taliban did exactly that when it initially seized power in Afghanistan back in 1996. It was a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan in which Al Qaeda harboured and trained the terrorists which carried out 9/11.<br /><br />So, if the US and its allies are unable to help the Afghan government improve its security capabilities sufficiently in the coming months, there could be big trouble ahead. Leaving Afghanistan in 2011 might suit short-term western political opinion, but if the Taliban is able to regain control once the Americans have left, it would probably allow Al Qaeda the opportunity to strengthen, and therefore make a spectacular attack on the US or Europe far more likely. Although it may cause an increase in the human cost in terms of American, British and other international lives, spending the time between now and 2011 putting the Afghans in a position to defeat the Taliban is essential to the ultimate success of the west's mission.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-81638112625159877702009-11-21T00:15:00.003+00:002009-11-21T00:31:03.445+00:00A Bit Of Rompuy PumpyWe now know who the EU's first president <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE5AJ2UT20091120?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=11617">is going to be</a>. It's Belgium's Prime Minister, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Van_Rompuy">Herman Van Rompuy</a>. There's also going to be a new EU foreign policy chief, in the form of Britain's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathy_Ashton">Cathy Ashton</a>. Better-known candidates for the top job, such as Tony Blair, faded out of contention as the EU's 27 leaders got together to decide who should get the positions.<br /><br />These jobs have been created as part of the Lisbon Treaty, which has now been ratified by all 27 member countries. The idea of them is to help the EU interact in a more effective way with the rest of the world. In future, instead of a mishmash of different signals from the various national leaders, we should all get a clearer idea of what the EU's view on a particular topic is, whether that's trade or a humanitarian intervention. Or at least that's how it's supposed to work.<br /><br />But you'll notice that neither Mr Van Rompuy or Baroness Ashton are household names. Mr Van Rompuy wasn't even elected Belgian Prime Minister, he was appointed by the king to try to solve a constitutional crisis. For her part, Baroness Ashton has never been elected to anything, and until today was not even the most famous person in her family (her husband is the YouGov pollster Peter Kellner).<br /><br />On the face of it, it does appear strange that the EU should select such little-known political figures to be its leaders. It's hardly going to impress the Americans, the Chinese or anyone else. But the main reason is simple, the leaders of the different countries don't want to give up any of their power if they can avoid it. A high-profile figure such as Mr Blair would have quickly dominated the EU's international activities, using his contacts in foreign capitals to take control of the union's external policy. Mr Van Rompuy and Baroness Ashton are much more likely to do what they're told, particularly by the leaders of France and Germany, who blocked Mr Blair's candidacy. Expect EU foreign policy to be set primarily in Paris and Berlin, rather than Brussels.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12971810644294438168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-54493724524027112182009-11-09T13:26:00.001+00:002009-11-09T13:27:53.079+00:00In Iraq, It's Still All About The Oil<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE5A71G220091109">A date's been set</a> for Iraq's general election. It'll be held early next year, on January 21st. There's been a hold up in announcing the final date because of disagreement over the status of the city of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk">Kirkuk</a>. Although a deal's finally been reached, the row offers a glimpse of how the politics of Iraq will shape up after the Americans and the rest have gone. Unsurprisingly, it's all about oil.<br />
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About 8 percent of the world's oil is under Iraq. And an awful lot of that is in the north of the country, the mainly Kurdish area of which Kirkuk is the traditional capital. Various ethnic groups have been drawn to the city over the last century, most notably when Arabs were resettled there by Saddam Hussein during the 1980s in an attempt to keep his Kurdish enemies at bay. Since he was ousted in 2003, Kurds have been flooding back again. So now we have a multi-ethnic city in an unstable country with a lot of oil underneath it. No prizes for guessing why this might be problematic.<br />
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The dispute was that the Arabs wanted to stick to the 2004 electoral roll (which would favour them) while the Kurds wanted a new one (which would favour them). The compromise is that a parliamentary committee will monitor the election results and, if those aren't in line with the expected demographics, they could be challenged. Ultimately, this should help ensure all of the ethnic groups are adequately represented as the future of Kirkuk (and its oil) is decided.<br />
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This deal has done little more than buy some time. Disagreements between the Kurds, Arabs and other interested parties will probably flare up again when the really tough decisions finally have to be made. But, although it sounds worryingly familiar that this dispute is all about oil, the fact that all sides have managed to make a (so far) peaceful compromise at least offers a bit of hope for the future of Iraqi politics.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38859161.post-11962295649345902612009-10-28T13:45:00.002+00:002009-10-28T13:47:03.950+00:00Paying The Taliban To Switch SidesPresident Obama <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSN2796610._CH_.2400">is signing into a law</a> a new bill which, among other things, includes a provision allowing the US to offer Taliban fighters money to put down their weapons and leave the insurgency in Afghanistan. This follows a similar scheme which operated with some success in Iraq. The idea is that ex-insurgents will be paid to defend their towns instead of attack them, and once the war is over will easily fit back into whatever passes for normal society.<br />
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This is another triumph for pragmatism over ideology in America's approach. If the promise of democracy and freedom isn't enough to convince Afghans to leave the Taliban, then the promise of a few quid and a steady job might be. It makes a bit of a mockery of the past rhetoric of US politicians including President Bush, which has often had a sort of 'our society is better than yours, we're giving it to you and you should be grateful for it' undercurrent to it.<br />
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But it would be wrong to assume the Obama people are the first to realise that hard cash might be more effective than western dogma in Afghanistan. In October 2001, the US bombing of Taliban positions initially had little obvious effect. Changing tack, the CIA quickly despatched operatives to Afghanistan with suitcases full of dollars, to literally buy off individual tribal leaders and warlords, getting them to stop supporting the Taliban. Only then did the US-backed offensive start to make any progress. This latest policy of the Obama administration helps show us that, for all of the west's efforts in Afghanistan since 2001, there's still an awful lot that hasn't changed at all.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2