Obama Woos The White Working Class

John Edwards, a former contender for the Democrat nomination for the US presidency, has decided to support Barack Obama. It's another setback for Hillary Clinton's dwindling chances of winning the nomination, despite her healthy victory in the West Virginia primary the other day.

The Edwards endorsement is significant because it goes right to the heart of one of Senator Obama's big problems - his lack of appeal to white working class voters. This was most recently proved in West Virgnia, an overwhelmingly white state, which Senator Clinton won by more than 40 points. Senator Obama's controversial remark earlier in the campaign that many whites are "bitter" and so cling to guns or religion, is something he'll have to work hard to live down.

That's where John Edwards could come in. During his own run for the presidency both this year and in 2004, he was hugely popular among white working class voters, and won the support of many big unions. His endorsement won't on its own suddenly guarantee all those supporters follow him in backing Senator Obama, but it could help move the issue down the political agenda a bit. Both the media and senior members of the Democratic party may be less likely to constantly bring up Senator Obama's lack of appeal among white working class voters, which ought to allow some of his other messages to get through more clearly.

This might not be the last we hear of John Edwards in this race. He could join Senator Obama as his running mate for November's general election. Although there are reasons why this might not be a great idea - he after all lost four years ago when on John Kerry's ticket - John Edwards could bring plenty to the Obama campaign. Not only would he help win over those white working class voters, but as a southerner he could improve their chances in some important states, and he's a credible alternative president, which is an unspoken but crucial part of being a candidate for the vice presidency. Whatever happens, there really is just about no hope left for Senator Clinton.

Burma's Cyclone

More than 20-thousand people are now known to have died in the cyclone which struck Burma. A further 40-thousand are missing. International aid agencies are doing what they can to assist rescue efforts, but the Burmese military government has been slow to let outsiders into the country.

There seems to be a lot of anger among Burmese people at what has gone on in the last few days. Not just the usual anger and frustration of victims of a natural disaster, although that's often a powerful thing. Rather there's anger at the military government's failure to warn anyone, other than regime officials, that the cyclone was on its way. The government had a good couple of days' notice the cyclone might well land a direct hit, but did nothing to avert this human disaster.

Burmese Buddhists may well be giving plenty of thought to the old legend that, when in times of bad leadership, an angry God sends famine, pestilence and storms as a way of showing displeasure. Just a few months on from the pro-democracy protests, which the regime sent in the army rather more quickly than they have done this week, surely many in the country will now have had enough of incompetent military rule. If and when the regime falls, this will surely prove to have been a pivotal moment.

Raul's Cuba

Raul Castro has attended Cuba's traditional May Day celebrations in central Havana. As usual, lots of people turned up, but in a break with the tradition of his big brother and predecessor Fidel, Raul didn't make a four-hour speech about the glory of the revolution. It's just the latest in a series of subtle changes since Raul took power for good earlier this year.

Recently Raul's announced various measures making things in Cuba a bit more liberal, a bit more western if you like. The controversial ban on Cuban citizens staying in tourist hotels in resorts like Varadero has been lifted. He's also made it legal for ordinary Cubans to have mobile phones. It's now easier for state workers to own their homes and pass them on to their children. Even wage limits are being abolished to, wait for it, allow employers to offer more incentives.

If all this has the scent of capitalism about it, you'd be right. After years of 'defending the revolution' by keeping things strictly communist, Cuba's new leader knows the regime must change if it's going to survive. Change may be slight and gradual, but it's clear Raul has his eye on what his comrades in China have done. Retaining a one-party state while slowly feeding in limited free-market reforms to the economy, just like Beijing, is the path he's set out on. And as long as Cubans are satisfied by their new-found ability to own more and do more, and if that doesn't cause the pride they still feel in their revolution to fade, it'll probably work.

Obama's Ups And Downs

Barack Obama seems likely to move closer to securing the Democrat nomination for the US presidential election tomorrow. The latest primary takes place in Pennsylvania, and if Senator Obama can either beat, or come a close second to his rival Hillary Clinton, it'll all-but-guarantee that he'll be the one taking on the Republican contender John McCain in November's general election. His lead over Senator Clinton is already just about unassailable, and unless she can match the ten-point victory she managed in Pennsylvania's neighbour Ohio, her hopes will probably be over.

But even though he's on the verge of finally becoming the Democrat nominee, the long campaign is storing up trouble for Senator Obama. His recent remark that people in small-town America are "bitter" about job losses, and therefore cling to their religion and guns, has not been enough on its own to knock his campaign completely off course. But it, and other issues like it, may yet come back to haunt him in the autumn.

Over the months, several apparently minor incidents have cropped up, that the Republicans will gleefully throw back at Senator Obama in negative ads. He was spotted not putting his hand over his heart during the pledge of allegiance, his wife said she'd never felt proud of America until her husband began campaigning, and most seriously, his links to controversial preacher Jeremiah Wright were discovered (that scandal's already had plenty of rotation on Fox News and elsewhere).

Senator Obama may have inspired many Americans with his messages of hope earlier in the campaign. But the Republicans will do everything in their power to destroy his character, much as they did to John Kerry in 2004, Al Gore in 2000, and most famously, Michael Dukakis in 1988. With their candidate John McCain likely to make his own personal character the main part of his own pitch to the American people, things are only going to get tougher for Barack Obama.

China's Olympic Embarrassment

The Olympic torch is continuing its troubled progress around the world. After pro-Tibet and other protestors disrupted it in London, Paris and San Francisco, it's now reached Buenos Aires.

So far the torch has had to be protected by a horde of Chinese security men in tracksuits, with lots of local police next to them - hardly the sort of image the Olympic movement wants to be associated with. And despite public insistence that the show will go on as planned, there's no doubt that privately the Chinese leaders will be deeply embarrassed by how the torch relay has gone. With one world leader after another announcing they won't be attending the opening ceremony, that embarrassment will only be felt more deeply as the Games draw near.

The Olympics were supposed to be China's big global coming out party. With impressive, sparkly new venues, and numerous gold medal winning performances from its athletes, China was going to show us what an advanced and powerful society it's become. This will probably still happen. But the protestors have already succeeded in making sure Tibet and other human rights issues will hang around the Games, filling column inches and broadcast time, and generally spoiling China's party.

Don't feel too sorry for the Chinese government though. When bidding for the Games, they told the IOC the process of holding an Olympics would help open the country up, and help it improve its human rights record. That hasn't happened, so the protests are fair enough. They might even just change something, although don't count on it. The Chinese may be embarrassed, but as they're proving in insisting the torch relay continues, they're also as stubborn as hell.

Bye Bye Bertie

Bertie Ahern has announced his desicion to resign as Ireland's Prime Minister, after more than a decade in power. He's been at the centre of a long-running scandal about his private finances, dating back to his period as finance minister during the early 90s. Mr Ahern will take the opportunity for one final moment on the international stage, when he addresses the US Congress at the end of this month, before formally standing down early in May.

The only thing most people may recall about Bertie Ahern is that he's a jovial sort of chap, who played an important role in securing the Good Friday Agreement a decade ago. They might be surprised to hear he's had to quit because of his past dodgy dealing. But then, he's the political protege of Ireland's hugely controversial and corrupt former Taoiseach Charles Haughey, who once called Ahern "the most skilful, the most devious and the most cunning" politician he'd ever known. Quite a testimonial.

It's certainly internationally that Mr Ahern will be most fondly remembered, and not just for his role in Northern Ireland. He was arguably the most pro-European of EU leaders, and not only put his country at the forefront of the traditionally Franco-German club, but also helped drive through important changes, overseeing the expansion of the union during his six-month presidency in 2004. And regardless of the grubby scandal that's badly tainted his image at home, Mr Ahern is surely a serious contender to be the EU's first full-time president. We haven't seen the last of this formidable politician.

Mugabe Hangs On

Results from Zimbabwe's presidential and parliamentary elections are slowly being released by the country's electoral commission. Despite claims from the opposition MDC that they've won a thumping victory, the results we've seen so far show them roughly level with the Zanu PF party led by President Robert Mugabe. Given the suspiciously slow speed at which the results are being released, as well as Mugabe's past form for rigging elections, it's fair to assume something dodgy's going on.

But the signs are time could at last be just about up for Mr Mugabe. One reason is the election campaign itself, which went off surprisingly peacefully. In the past, the military and police would have been quick to use violence to suppress the opposition. That didn't happen nearly as much this time, suggesting support for Mr Mugabe within the army may have melted away. In the event of a dubious election result being hotly disputed by the opposition and its supporters, which side the military chooses to support would probably prove decisive.

Then there's the apparent scale of vote-rigging that would be required to change these results. Unofficial tallies released by the opposition and others show Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC with around two-thirds of the vote both in the parliamentary and presidential polls. Zanu PF supporters and even Mr Mugabe himself must know to declare him the outright victor, as the state-owned Herald newspaper is apparently going to do in the morning, would be just too ridiculous. But the sad truth about Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe, where inflation runs at 100,000% is that nothing is too ridiculous. Don't be surprised if he tries to hang on once again.