Ireland Says Yes, And EU Expansion Could Follow

At the second time of asking, voters in Ireland have approved the EU's Lisbon Treaty. The treaty is supposed to make the EU run more smoothly, now that it has 27 members. Ireland is the only country which has held a referendum on the treaty, because the Irish constitution states that it has to. The treaty would probably be voted down if many other countries held similar polls, but that's not really important, because all the other EU governments are merely approving the treaty in their parliaments. That process should be complete by the end of this year.

One of the consequences of adopting the treaty is that the EU will expand further. The simpler decision-making processes that the treaty will introduce should make this traditionally tortuous process a bit easier. Countries keen to join as soon as possible include the next most likely entrant, Croatia, which is moving closer after apparently resolving a border dispute with Slovenia. After Croatia, there are other Balkan countries to consider, including Bosnia and Serbia.

For years it has seemed that those nations would ultimately be admitted into the EU once the remaining outstanding details of the 1992-95 war were resolved, such as the war criminals who remain at large. But both Bosnia and Serbia face considerable other problems. For Bosnia, the main issue is trying to get the two halves of the country (it was split into a Muslim-Croat part and a Serb part by the Dayton peace deal) to work together. After a series of disagreements between the two administrations, an international conference has been called for this Friday in Sarajevo to try to sort it out. Without political harmony across the whole of its territory, Bosnia's hopes of EU entry will remain distant.

Serbia's position is probably worse. Serb nationalism remains a potent and, in the west at least, a largely underestimated factor. There are still significant elements within Serbia which would rather the country was allied more closely with its traditional friend Russia than join the EU. Recent large-scale job losses have helped lead to dissatisfaction with the (still newish) pro-western and pro-EU government in Belgrade. Also, the recent cancellation of a planned gay pride event in fear of violence from right-wing groups has acted as a reminder that, socially, Serbia is not yet the sort of modern, forward-looking country the EU would like to welcome into the union.

There is a significant move forward coming up in January, though. Serbian citizens are expected to be given the right to travel to the rest of the EU without a visa, a privilege they last enjoyed when they were part of Yugoslavia. The fact that Serbs have not been allowed to move easily throughout Europe in recent years has helped stoke resentment against the EU. Removing that barrier could help make sure Serbia, and its people, see their future in Europe and not elsewhere.

Ireland's No Means Trouble For Europe

Ireland has voted no in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. The document includes various rules designed to make the EU run more smoothly, now that it contains 27 nations. But the Irish no vote means it's likely it'll never come into force, at least not in its current form.

The EU's not just looking for a Plan B now, but a Plan C. The Lisbon Treaty is very similar to the EU Constitution, which was scrapped when French and Dutch voters rejected it in 2005. This time, 26 of the 27 EU countries, including Britain, decided they didn't want a referendum. Publicly, governments argued such a vote wasn't necessary because the treaty wouldn't dramatically change the way individual countries are run. But really, EU leaders didn't want to hold votes because they feared the treaty would be rejected. Because of its constitution, Ireland had to hold a vote, and it produced the result EU leaders dreaded.

It's difficult to see what the EU can do now. As the club grows, it's becoming increasingly tough to run, with even slower decision-making and more of the bureaucracy the EU is notorious for. Pressure's likely to be put on Ireland to hold another referendum on a slightly different version of the treaty. Similar things have happened in Ireland and elsewhere in the past, but forcing a further vote would be unpopular as it would show blatant contempt for the will of the Irish people. Plus, there'd be no guarantee the outcome would be any different.

Instead, look for the EU to have a third go at this in a couple of years time, when Croatia becomes the union's 28th member. Another new treaty would take a lot more slow, painstaking work to put together, and it would have to be less wide-ranging than either Lisbon or the original EU Constitution. But the EU's going to have to try. Otherwise it's going to become even less efficient, and therefore even more unpopular.

Bye Bye Bertie

Bertie Ahern has announced his desicion to resign as Ireland's Prime Minister, after more than a decade in power. He's been at the centre of a long-running scandal about his private finances, dating back to his period as finance minister during the early 90s. Mr Ahern will take the opportunity for one final moment on the international stage, when he addresses the US Congress at the end of this month, before formally standing down early in May.

The only thing most people may recall about Bertie Ahern is that he's a jovial sort of chap, who played an important role in securing the Good Friday Agreement a decade ago. They might be surprised to hear he's had to quit because of his past dodgy dealing. But then, he's the political protege of Ireland's hugely controversial and corrupt former Taoiseach Charles Haughey, who once called Ahern "the most skilful, the most devious and the most cunning" politician he'd ever known. Quite a testimonial.

It's certainly internationally that Mr Ahern will be most fondly remembered, and not just for his role in Northern Ireland. He was arguably the most pro-European of EU leaders, and not only put his country at the forefront of the traditionally Franco-German club, but also helped drive through important changes, overseeing the expansion of the union during his six-month presidency in 2004. And regardless of the grubby scandal that's badly tainted his image at home, Mr Ahern is surely a serious contender to be the EU's first full-time president. We haven't seen the last of this formidable politician.