Six Somalian MPs are among at least 32 people killed in a gun and grenade attack on a hotel in the capital, Mogadishu. The Islamist group al-Shabaab has said it carried out the attack.
Today's incident is the worst outbreak of fighting since yesterday's announcement from al-Shabaab that it was beginning a new offensive against the African Union forces who have been trying to prop up the country's transitional government. The Islamists include elements of the old UIC regime, which briefly ran Somalia in 2006, until they were forced out by US-backed Ethiopian troops because of their hardline Islamist policies. Since then, the transitional government has not managed to impose much authority on Somalia, large areas of which remain more or less lawless.
The attack shows that the threat posed by al-Shabaab is perhaps even more serious than had been thought. The hotel was in one of the few areas of Mogadishu considered safe. For al-Shabaab to strike in such brazen and deadly fashion is further evidence of the group's growing strength. The notion that al-Shabaab's latest offensive could result in the complete overthrow of the transitional government, and the defeat of the African Union forces, now seems to be a definite possibility.
If that happens, the US and others who don't want to see an Islamist regime re-established in Somalia, may decide they have little choice but to intervene, perhaps once again using the Ethiopian army. The crisis in Somalia, which has been largely ignored by the rest of the world in recent years, could be about to return to the front pages.
Showing posts with label Somalia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Somalia. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Monday, July 12, 2010
Somalia's Islamists Strike In Uganda
Dozens of people have been killed in a double bomb attack in the capital of Uganda, Kampala. A rugby club and an Ethiopian restaurant were the targets of the blasts, which targeted football fans watching the World Cup final. Somalia's Islamist al-Shabaab group is already being blamed.
The al-Shabaab organisation is sometimes described as having links to al-Qaeda, although as far as we know that's only true in the sense that it shares some of the aims and philosophies of Osama bin Laden's network, rather than anything more tangible like money or weapons. It formed out of the remnants of the UIC, a hardline Islamic group which briefly ran lawless Somalia in 2006, until it was overthrown by the US-backed Ethiopian army for being rather too much like the Taliban for Washington's liking.
The decision to target an Ethiopian restaurant therefore hints at al-Shabaab being behind the Kampala attacks, as does the choice of Uganda itself, as Uganda has supplied some of the African Union forces currently trying to protect what little central government there is to speak of in Somalia.
But the most significant thing about last night's attacks are their scale. al-Shabaab has grown in strength of late, partly bolstered by cash flowing into the country through ransoms paid to Somali pirates. Last winter, al-Shabaab was linked to an attack on the man responsible for the Prophet Mohammed cartoons at his home in Denmark. If that incident suggested the group was developing the ambition and capability to strike at targets abroad, the Uganda blasts confirm that both of those factors are only increasing with time. It could once again be up to US-backed Ethiopian forces to move into al-Shabaab's heartland in rural Somalia, to try to reverse that growing strength.
The al-Shabaab organisation is sometimes described as having links to al-Qaeda, although as far as we know that's only true in the sense that it shares some of the aims and philosophies of Osama bin Laden's network, rather than anything more tangible like money or weapons. It formed out of the remnants of the UIC, a hardline Islamic group which briefly ran lawless Somalia in 2006, until it was overthrown by the US-backed Ethiopian army for being rather too much like the Taliban for Washington's liking.
The decision to target an Ethiopian restaurant therefore hints at al-Shabaab being behind the Kampala attacks, as does the choice of Uganda itself, as Uganda has supplied some of the African Union forces currently trying to protect what little central government there is to speak of in Somalia.
But the most significant thing about last night's attacks are their scale. al-Shabaab has grown in strength of late, partly bolstered by cash flowing into the country through ransoms paid to Somali pirates. Last winter, al-Shabaab was linked to an attack on the man responsible for the Prophet Mohammed cartoons at his home in Denmark. If that incident suggested the group was developing the ambition and capability to strike at targets abroad, the Uganda blasts confirm that both of those factors are only increasing with time. It could once again be up to US-backed Ethiopian forces to move into al-Shabaab's heartland in rural Somalia, to try to reverse that growing strength.
Saturday, January 02, 2010
The Terror Threat From Somalia And Yemen
Two failed attacks, both apparently carried out by alleged Islamist terrorists, have featured prominently in global headlines over Christmas and New Year. On Christmas Day, a Nigerian man is suspected of trying to blow up a plane as it landed at Detroit. The US now says the suspect has links to an al-Qaeda group in Yemen. And in Denmark, a man with alleged ties to Somalian Islamist group al-Shabaab broke into the home of the artist responsible for the infamous Prophet Mohammed cartoons. The man has now been charged with attempted manslaughter.
And so, Yemen and Somalia are suddenly back on the radar of world leaders, with phrases such as 'incubators of terrorism' being bandied around. We're more used to hearing that sort of thing in relation to Afghanistan and north-west Pakistan, where there was also a recent deadly terrorist attack during a volleyball game. The arguments about how to deal with the security problems in those countries are often debated, but how western countries might deal with the threat posed by terrorist groups operating out of Yemen and Somalia hasn't received much public discussion in recent years. The recent attacks mean that will surely now change, but there seem to be even fewer potential solutions than there are for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Somalia's al-Shabaab formed out of the remnants of the UIC, a Taliban-style Islamist group which briefly ruled Somalia in 2006 until it was overthrown by US-backed Ethiopian forces for, well, being a bit too much like the Taliban. Since then, there's been little central government to speak of in Somalia, which is why pirates have been able to operate with such impunity from Somali ports. Some of the pirates' cash ends up going to al-Shabaab, and the Danish incident demonstrates it now has both the ability and willingness to attempt terrorist attacks abroad. If further international attacks take place, the US may be forced to turn once again to its Ethiopian allies for help in fighting al-Shabaab, the deployment of US troops to Somalia being still far too sensitive a subject following the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident.
As for Yemen, there is at least a central government, and the US has given it tens of millions of aid dollars to help root out terrorists since the attack on the USS Cole in Aden harbour in 2000. Following the failed Christmas Day bombing in Detroit, expect more help for the Yemeni authorities, including more US drones flying over remote parts of the country in an attempt to find terrorist hideouts. The solution to the Yemen problem may be a little more straightforward than that in Somalia, but the potential scale of the Detroit attack shows that al-Qaeda in Yemen already has the ambition to strike at major targets in the US homeland. The Obama administration knows it must act quickly in Yemen before the next terrorist plot becomes a reality.
And so, Yemen and Somalia are suddenly back on the radar of world leaders, with phrases such as 'incubators of terrorism' being bandied around. We're more used to hearing that sort of thing in relation to Afghanistan and north-west Pakistan, where there was also a recent deadly terrorist attack during a volleyball game. The arguments about how to deal with the security problems in those countries are often debated, but how western countries might deal with the threat posed by terrorist groups operating out of Yemen and Somalia hasn't received much public discussion in recent years. The recent attacks mean that will surely now change, but there seem to be even fewer potential solutions than there are for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Somalia's al-Shabaab formed out of the remnants of the UIC, a Taliban-style Islamist group which briefly ruled Somalia in 2006 until it was overthrown by US-backed Ethiopian forces for, well, being a bit too much like the Taliban. Since then, there's been little central government to speak of in Somalia, which is why pirates have been able to operate with such impunity from Somali ports. Some of the pirates' cash ends up going to al-Shabaab, and the Danish incident demonstrates it now has both the ability and willingness to attempt terrorist attacks abroad. If further international attacks take place, the US may be forced to turn once again to its Ethiopian allies for help in fighting al-Shabaab, the deployment of US troops to Somalia being still far too sensitive a subject following the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident.
As for Yemen, there is at least a central government, and the US has given it tens of millions of aid dollars to help root out terrorists since the attack on the USS Cole in Aden harbour in 2000. Following the failed Christmas Day bombing in Detroit, expect more help for the Yemeni authorities, including more US drones flying over remote parts of the country in an attempt to find terrorist hideouts. The solution to the Yemen problem may be a little more straightforward than that in Somalia, but the potential scale of the Detroit attack shows that al-Qaeda in Yemen already has the ambition to strike at major targets in the US homeland. The Obama administration knows it must act quickly in Yemen before the next terrorist plot becomes a reality.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
It's Not Just About The Pirates
Somalia has been in the news a lot over the past couple of years, almost entirely to do with the pirates which have left its coast to attack ships in the Red Sea. Both people and vessels have been held to big ransoms, and the continued lack of a central government worthy of the name in Somalia means that successful pirates have been able to go back home and live high on the hog courtesy of their ill-gotten gains.
But all of this has obscured Somalia's other problems, which will be familiar to anyone who's taken even a passing interest in the country at any point over the last couple of decades. A battle for control of Somalia's territory is raging between a group of Islamist fighters called al Shabaab, and the would-be government which is represented by African Union forces. Stuck somewhere in the middle, hopelessly outgunned as always, is the UN
Yesterday's escalation in the trouble came in Baidoa, in the south of the country and traditionally one of the more stable areas. After saying they'd force the UN out of Somalia, some al Shabaab fighters attacked and looted a couple of UN compounds. As a result, the UN has got out of Baidoa, with the staff legging it to Kenya. Al Shabaab has warned anyone else trying to carry out aid work in the area to contact them first, and they'll be told what they can and can't do.
This is Al Shabaab demonstrating to the UN, the would-be Somali government in the capital Mogadishu, and anyone else who's interested, just how powerful they are. In the areas they control, they can do whatever they want. Al Shabaab's aim is to conquer the whole country and reintroduce the kind of hardline Islamist government last seen during the brief rule of the Union of Islamic Courts back in 2006. The UIC sounded rather too much like the Taliban for the liking of the US and other western countries, and they supported Ethiopian troops who were used to drive the UIC out. If Al Shabaab continues to advance, expect the US and others to consider something similar.
But all of this has obscured Somalia's other problems, which will be familiar to anyone who's taken even a passing interest in the country at any point over the last couple of decades. A battle for control of Somalia's territory is raging between a group of Islamist fighters called al Shabaab, and the would-be government which is represented by African Union forces. Stuck somewhere in the middle, hopelessly outgunned as always, is the UN
Yesterday's escalation in the trouble came in Baidoa, in the south of the country and traditionally one of the more stable areas. After saying they'd force the UN out of Somalia, some al Shabaab fighters attacked and looted a couple of UN compounds. As a result, the UN has got out of Baidoa, with the staff legging it to Kenya. Al Shabaab has warned anyone else trying to carry out aid work in the area to contact them first, and they'll be told what they can and can't do.
This is Al Shabaab demonstrating to the UN, the would-be Somali government in the capital Mogadishu, and anyone else who's interested, just how powerful they are. In the areas they control, they can do whatever they want. Al Shabaab's aim is to conquer the whole country and reintroduce the kind of hardline Islamist government last seen during the brief rule of the Union of Islamic Courts back in 2006. The UIC sounded rather too much like the Taliban for the liking of the US and other western countries, and they supported Ethiopian troops who were used to drive the UIC out. If Al Shabaab continues to advance, expect the US and others to consider something similar.
Friday, February 13, 2009
15th Time Lucky In Somalia?
Somalia's new president has chosen the son of a former president to be the next prime minister of the troubled African country. Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke will take the key post in a new unity government that it's hoped will end almost two decades of lawlessness and war in Somalia. It's at least the 15th attempt since 1991 to solve the conflict with a new civilian administration. The previous 14 have failed.
A brief bit of history. The assorted governments have usually been split apart by differences between Somalia's powerful clans. In recent years, some members of the largest of the clans, the Hawiye, have sided with thousands of Islamist fighters, who used to be part of a group which briefly controlled much of the country during 2006. That group was forced back by Ethiopian troops, called in to help by Somalia's civilian leaders. Since then, those Islamists, Hawiye members and others who wanted to continue the fight have been engaged in a violent insurgency against the still very weak government.
This is the situation which Sharmarke finds himself in. If it sounds like a desperate job to have to do, that's because it is, but there are a couple of reasons to be positive. Many Somalis have fond memories of his father, who was a relatively successful (by Somali standards) leader until his assassination in 1969. The other is the fact that he is from the Darod clan, which means each of the three major Somali clans, including the Hawiye, are represented in senior positions in the government. Perhaps the new administration's diversity will help it succeed where the others have failed. But given the deep, bitter and long-standing divisions that continue to exist in Somalia, don't bet on it.
A brief bit of history. The assorted governments have usually been split apart by differences between Somalia's powerful clans. In recent years, some members of the largest of the clans, the Hawiye, have sided with thousands of Islamist fighters, who used to be part of a group which briefly controlled much of the country during 2006. That group was forced back by Ethiopian troops, called in to help by Somalia's civilian leaders. Since then, those Islamists, Hawiye members and others who wanted to continue the fight have been engaged in a violent insurgency against the still very weak government.
This is the situation which Sharmarke finds himself in. If it sounds like a desperate job to have to do, that's because it is, but there are a couple of reasons to be positive. Many Somalis have fond memories of his father, who was a relatively successful (by Somali standards) leader until his assassination in 1969. The other is the fact that he is from the Darod clan, which means each of the three major Somali clans, including the Hawiye, are represented in senior positions in the government. Perhaps the new administration's diversity will help it succeed where the others have failed. But given the deep, bitter and long-standing divisions that continue to exist in Somalia, don't bet on it.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Aiming To Get Out
Ethiopia's Prime Minister says he wants all his troops out of Somalia soon. Ethiopia's been involved in months of fighting there, backing a Transitional Government that's been trying to establish itself after the Ethiopians helped overthrow a Taliban-style Islamic group last year. There's been a fierce insurgency ever since, although things seem to have calmed down just a bit now.
Ethiopia's presence isn't exactly popular in Somalia, but it would be a total disaster if their forces withdrew now. Its relatively strong military is the only thing that currently offers hope of some kind of more stable future for Somalia. While the Ethiopian PM is right to say it would be better if African Union peacekeepers were able to take over and relieve his men, that isn't happening yet. That Ethiopian-induced stability is also important if the UN and aid agencies are going to be able to do anything about all the refugees currently milling about the country (the UN now says it's a worse displacement crisis than Darfur). Before getting out, Ethiopia must make sure it finishes the job.
Ethiopia's presence isn't exactly popular in Somalia, but it would be a total disaster if their forces withdrew now. Its relatively strong military is the only thing that currently offers hope of some kind of more stable future for Somalia. While the Ethiopian PM is right to say it would be better if African Union peacekeepers were able to take over and relieve his men, that isn't happening yet. That Ethiopian-induced stability is also important if the UN and aid agencies are going to be able to do anything about all the refugees currently milling about the country (the UN now says it's a worse displacement crisis than Darfur). Before getting out, Ethiopia must make sure it finishes the job.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Why Bush Doesn't Want A Timetable For Withdrawal
The House of Representatives has voted to approve a bill that'll provide extra cash for the US military in Iraq. It also uses that T word - timetable - to call for American forces to withdraw by next March. Because of that, President Bush says he's going to veto it.
On the face of it, this seems a faintly bizarre way of reacting to things. Bush has been given the extra money he wants to give the so-called 'surge' - the additional security effort in Baghdad - a chance to work. And he's also been given a deadline by which the troops should be home, something that should be popular with just about everybody.
But no, Bush is going to use his veto for just the second time since he took office. He and his Republican friends are talking darkly about not wanting to sanction a "surrender" in Iraq. That kind of language isn't really helpful in getting to the heart of what's going on there. The US (and Britain for that matter) won't be leaving because they've been defeated militarily, they'll be leaving because they can't do anything much about the situation on the ground - which is now a civil war, rather than a war between 'us' and 'them.' So the "surrender" argument is pretty bogus.
The real main reason why Bush doesn't want a timetable for withdrawal is because it will make him look a failure. Not only will it make him look a failure, but it will make him an actual failure. Because that's what he is, at least when it comes to Iraq. Over the last four years, there's always been the glimmer of hope that a corner might be turned, and that Iraq might gradually improve to the sort of stable democracy Bush and the rest had in mind in the first place. Pulling the troops out and leaving it to the Iraqis to sort out amongst themselves, would remove that hope, and finally condemn Bush to spending the rest of history in the bargain bucket of failed presidents.
But there's a second reason too I think. Not one that Bush is probably that bothered about, but one that I believe diplomats and some politicians and military officials are. The Republican leader in the House, John Boehner, put it like this: "We can walk out of Iraq, just like we did in Lebanon, just like we did in Vietnam, just like we did in Somalia and we will leave chaos in our wake." Somalia's been without a stable government in 16 years, ever since a dictator was deposed. As the latest battle for control of Mogadishu continues, with neighbours such as Ethiopia heavily involved, the prospect of Iraq remaining a failed state in bloody anarchy for the next decade and more seems horribly likely. Whether keeping US troops in Iraq for longer can avert that seems pretty doubtful. But the lesson of Somalia is that standing by and watching Iraq destroy itself is not an option.
On the face of it, this seems a faintly bizarre way of reacting to things. Bush has been given the extra money he wants to give the so-called 'surge' - the additional security effort in Baghdad - a chance to work. And he's also been given a deadline by which the troops should be home, something that should be popular with just about everybody.
But no, Bush is going to use his veto for just the second time since he took office. He and his Republican friends are talking darkly about not wanting to sanction a "surrender" in Iraq. That kind of language isn't really helpful in getting to the heart of what's going on there. The US (and Britain for that matter) won't be leaving because they've been defeated militarily, they'll be leaving because they can't do anything much about the situation on the ground - which is now a civil war, rather than a war between 'us' and 'them.' So the "surrender" argument is pretty bogus.
The real main reason why Bush doesn't want a timetable for withdrawal is because it will make him look a failure. Not only will it make him look a failure, but it will make him an actual failure. Because that's what he is, at least when it comes to Iraq. Over the last four years, there's always been the glimmer of hope that a corner might be turned, and that Iraq might gradually improve to the sort of stable democracy Bush and the rest had in mind in the first place. Pulling the troops out and leaving it to the Iraqis to sort out amongst themselves, would remove that hope, and finally condemn Bush to spending the rest of history in the bargain bucket of failed presidents.
But there's a second reason too I think. Not one that Bush is probably that bothered about, but one that I believe diplomats and some politicians and military officials are. The Republican leader in the House, John Boehner, put it like this: "We can walk out of Iraq, just like we did in Lebanon, just like we did in Vietnam, just like we did in Somalia and we will leave chaos in our wake." Somalia's been without a stable government in 16 years, ever since a dictator was deposed. As the latest battle for control of Mogadishu continues, with neighbours such as Ethiopia heavily involved, the prospect of Iraq remaining a failed state in bloody anarchy for the next decade and more seems horribly likely. Whether keeping US troops in Iraq for longer can avert that seems pretty doubtful. But the lesson of Somalia is that standing by and watching Iraq destroy itself is not an option.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
"A Week Or Two"
It's the eighth day in a row of heavy fighting in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. On the one side we've got the interim government, backed by Ethiopian military power (oddly enough, they're the good guys in this one). On the other, Islamic rebels loyal to the ousted Taliban-style regime who spent a few months ruling the country last year (the bad guys). Hundreds of people have been killed in this latest outbreak of fighting, and the UN reckons around 300,000 civilians have been forced to leave Mogadishu recently.
The Ethiopian Prime Minister said yesterday it would only take "a week or two" to clear Mogadishu of the remaining rebels. We've heard this sort of thing ever since the Ethiopians kicked the Islamic regime out of Mogadishu back in December, but still the fighting continues. Hopefully he's right though, and the Somali-Ethiopian force will be powerful enough to not only install the interim government, but keep it firmly in place. The chances of a stable administration taking hold in Mogadishu for the first time in 16 years rest on the strength of the Ethiopian Army.
The timing of "a week or two" is even more important for all those refugees. The phrase 'humanitarian crisis' is so overused it seems fatuous to roll it out again, but there's no getting away from the fact there is going to be one unless the fighting stops soonish. After striking a deal with the both sides, the UN's managing to get some help to the homeless and hungry. But that won't be nearly enough. The refugees need a quick and decisive Ethiopian victory just as much as the politicians of the interim government.
The Ethiopian Prime Minister said yesterday it would only take "a week or two" to clear Mogadishu of the remaining rebels. We've heard this sort of thing ever since the Ethiopians kicked the Islamic regime out of Mogadishu back in December, but still the fighting continues. Hopefully he's right though, and the Somali-Ethiopian force will be powerful enough to not only install the interim government, but keep it firmly in place. The chances of a stable administration taking hold in Mogadishu for the first time in 16 years rest on the strength of the Ethiopian Army.
The timing of "a week or two" is even more important for all those refugees. The phrase 'humanitarian crisis' is so overused it seems fatuous to roll it out again, but there's no getting away from the fact there is going to be one unless the fighting stops soonish. After striking a deal with the both sides, the UN's managing to get some help to the homeless and hungry. But that won't be nearly enough. The refugees need a quick and decisive Ethiopian victory just as much as the politicians of the interim government.
Sunday, April 08, 2007
The Calm After The Storm
Following the recent heavy fighting in Somalia, things have died down over the last few days to more 'normal' levels of gunfire in the capital Mogadishu. And the US has shown it's still interested in trying to salvage a proper Somali government from the chaos, by sending its top Africa diplomat to make sure everyone knows what the score is.
She went bearing aid money from Congress, and promises of lots more if the Transitional Federal Government can form a proper administration over a calm Somalia. The Americans are putting their hopes on a planned conference, that would hopefully convince the clans and warlords behind much of the anti-government violence that they can all have a say in a peaceful administration. It would be a major surprise if it proved to be that easy. But the fact that America's prepared to send someone senior to Somalia for the first time in 14 years at least proves they're interested in helping.
She went bearing aid money from Congress, and promises of lots more if the Transitional Federal Government can form a proper administration over a calm Somalia. The Americans are putting their hopes on a planned conference, that would hopefully convince the clans and warlords behind much of the anti-government violence that they can all have a say in a peaceful administration. It would be a major surprise if it proved to be that easy. But the fact that America's prepared to send someone senior to Somalia for the first time in 14 years at least proves they're interested in helping.
Monday, April 02, 2007
Fading Hopes
For a while there, things were almost starting to look up in Somalia. In what seemed to be the most serious attempt at re-establishing order in 15 years, a Transitional Federal Government arrived in Mogadishu with the backing of Ethiopian and African Union forces. Could they stamp their authority on the country, and create a stable, working administration?
No. Thousands are now fleeing Mogadishu, after the recent violence got even worse over the last few days. It's mostly Ethiopian troops trying to put down Islamic rebels loyal to the Taliban-esque regime they helped overthrow in December. The Ethiopians were supposed to have left Somalia to let African Union forces keep the peace, but that plan's been shattered by the continued strength of the Islamic fighters. Now Ethiopian forces are flooding back into Mogadishu, as the refugees flood out. In just a couple of weeks, the best chance of stability in 15 years has turned into the worst fighting in 15 years. Peace in Somalia has suddenly never seemed so remote.
No. Thousands are now fleeing Mogadishu, after the recent violence got even worse over the last few days. It's mostly Ethiopian troops trying to put down Islamic rebels loyal to the Taliban-esque regime they helped overthrow in December. The Ethiopians were supposed to have left Somalia to let African Union forces keep the peace, but that plan's been shattered by the continued strength of the Islamic fighters. Now Ethiopian forces are flooding back into Mogadishu, as the refugees flood out. In just a couple of weeks, the best chance of stability in 15 years has turned into the worst fighting in 15 years. Peace in Somalia has suddenly never seemed so remote.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
The Stakes Get Higher
The Somali government has confirmed the Islamic insurgency in the country is now being commanded by a well-known Al Qaeda figure. Aden Hashi Ayro trained in Afghanistan, and is now said to be personally directing operations as heavy fighting with Ethiopian-backed government troops rages for a second day in Mogadishu.
The Somalis are hoping to paint this conflict as part of the wider war on terror. They believe the best way to attract more international support, especially from Washington, is to emphasise the Al Qaeda links of the rebels they're fighting. The US won't commit any troops to Somalia - not after its disastrous intervention there in 1993 - but the Somalis presumably reckon at least having American sympathy will help them. And they might be right. The more established the fledgling government becomes in international eyes, the better their chances of seeing off the Islamic rebels.
The Somalis are hoping to paint this conflict as part of the wider war on terror. They believe the best way to attract more international support, especially from Washington, is to emphasise the Al Qaeda links of the rebels they're fighting. The US won't commit any troops to Somalia - not after its disastrous intervention there in 1993 - but the Somalis presumably reckon at least having American sympathy will help them. And they might be right. The more established the fledgling government becomes in international eyes, the better their chances of seeing off the Islamic rebels.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
The Battle For Mogadishu
A little over a week after Somalia's Transitional Federal Government moved to the capital Mogadishu, there's been the heaviest fighting so far as it tries to stamp its authority on the country. TFG forces backed by Ethiopia are battling rebels loyal to the ousted Union of Islamic Courts.
Ethiopian military power was enough to drive the UIC out and put the TFG in power, but it won't be enough to keep them there. The real power in Mogadishu is still divided between the various clan leaders who've been prominent over the last 16 years of anarchy. The most powerful of those clans, the Hawiye, is now threatening to join the fight against the TFG. It's not happy with the role of Ethiopian forces in Somalia in recent months, as well as the Ugandans sent in by the African Union. The Hawiye seem to want some kind of UN force instead, but that can't be allowed to happen. The only solution to the Somalia problem will be an African one, and it's vital the TFG keeps the Hawiye and others onside, to allow it to happen.
Ethiopian military power was enough to drive the UIC out and put the TFG in power, but it won't be enough to keep them there. The real power in Mogadishu is still divided between the various clan leaders who've been prominent over the last 16 years of anarchy. The most powerful of those clans, the Hawiye, is now threatening to join the fight against the TFG. It's not happy with the role of Ethiopian forces in Somalia in recent months, as well as the Ugandans sent in by the African Union. The Hawiye seem to want some kind of UN force instead, but that can't be allowed to happen. The only solution to the Somalia problem will be an African one, and it's vital the TFG keeps the Hawiye and others onside, to allow it to happen.
Monday, March 12, 2007
A Glimmer Of A Chance
MPs in Somalia have voted to move the seat of their Transitional Federal Government to the capital Mogadishu, from Baidoa where they've been meeting since they first entered the country last February. Going from being set up in exile, to meeting in a provincial city, then to the capital is not a normal progression for an administration, but then Somalia's not exactly a normal country.
The TFG is promising to restore order to Mogadishu within 30 days. The capital's been a typically violent place in recent weeks after the Union of Islamic Courts, which had ruled for six months, was driven out by the Ethiopian Army in December. The Ethiopians have been as good as their word and have pulled out, allowing the TFG and a force from the African Union to get on with trying to make things stable.
Ironically, stability is what Mogadishu actually had for a few months last year while the UIC was in control. They were a hardline Islamic group similar to the Taliban and it's good that they're not in charge anymore, but their brief rule at least suggests Somalians could be ready to be governed again (there hasn't been a proper government since 1991). If the violence eases over the next month, and the TFG is able to establish itself in Mogadishu, there's at long, long last a glimmer of a chance of a better future for Somalia.
The TFG is promising to restore order to Mogadishu within 30 days. The capital's been a typically violent place in recent weeks after the Union of Islamic Courts, which had ruled for six months, was driven out by the Ethiopian Army in December. The Ethiopians have been as good as their word and have pulled out, allowing the TFG and a force from the African Union to get on with trying to make things stable.
Ironically, stability is what Mogadishu actually had for a few months last year while the UIC was in control. They were a hardline Islamic group similar to the Taliban and it's good that they're not in charge anymore, but their brief rule at least suggests Somalians could be ready to be governed again (there hasn't been a proper government since 1991). If the violence eases over the next month, and the TFG is able to establish itself in Mogadishu, there's at long, long last a glimmer of a chance of a better future for Somalia.
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