One of the most popular figures in Croatia, Ante Gotovina, has been jailed for 24 years for war crimes carried out against the Serbs during the end of the Balkan War in 1995. Another man got 18 years, while a third was cleared, following an international trial in The Hague.
The Gotovina case has been a prickly one for successive Croatian governments. As the man who led the Croat Army to a series of victories over the Serbs in the summer of 1995, as the Serbs were themselves under pressure from belated international air strikes, he was and is something of a national hero. But hundreds of Serb civilians died during that campaign, as they were forced by the Croats from the Krajina region, traditionally a Serb enclave (the word Krajina means frontier).
And it's offences relating to that which have landed Gotovina in prison after all these years. But the real reason is much larger. Croatia wants to join the EU, and soon, like its neighbour Slovenia did back in 2004. Failing to finish the unfinished business of the war was a major sticking point preventing that happening.
If it weren't for the prospect of EU membership, Gotovina would surely still be at large. But that carrot has proved too strong for the Croatian government to resist, even if it means temporary unpopularity among many Croat citizens. Perhaps one day, something similar will help the Serbs bring Ratko Mladic and others to justice.
Showing posts with label Serbia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Serbia. Show all posts
Friday, April 15, 2011
Monday, March 01, 2010
Ganic Arrest Shows That Serbia Remembers The Past, Too
A former senior Bosnian politician, Ejup Ganic, has been arrested at Heathrow Airport over alleged war crimes. A warrant for his extradition had been issued by Serbia, in relation to an attack on Yugoslav Army forces in Sarajevo at the start of the 1992-95 war. Mr Ganic has appeared in court, and it's now up to Serbia to produce evidence supporting its extradition request before anything more can happen.
First, the incident itself. Back in 1992, when Bosnia declared independence and was suddenly at war with what remained of Yugoslavia, one early problem was the presence of Yugoslav Army soldiers who had been based in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo. A deal was agreed allowing them to be escorted out of the city by UN peacekeepers to a nearby Serb-controlled area. But hours before this was due to happen, rumours spread that the Bosnian Muslim political leader Alija Izetbegovic had been arrested by Bosnian Serb forces. Bosnian Muslims then ambushed the Yugoslav Army column on Sarajevo's Dobrovoljacka Street.
That much is more or less agreed on. But, as always when discussing the Balkan War, there are differences of opinion about the numbers. Serbia claims more than 40 soldiers were killed, the Bosnians say it was much less. Serbia also alleges that some of those dead soldiers had been wounded in the initial ambush, and were executed later. The charge facing Mr Ganic is that he helped organise this, something he denies. He's the most senior of 19 Bosnian officials who were recently charged by a Serbian court over the incident.
We don't know what evidence Serbia has got, so it's difficult to say whether Mr Ganic or anybody else will ever stand trial. But what we can say is that Serbia is doing its best to correct the record of history a bit. With the war crimes case against ex-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic resuming in The Hague today, Serbia is taking the opportunity to remind us that it wasn't the only side which did bad things during the war. Just as importantly, political and judicial leaders in Belgrade want to remind their own public that they've not forgotten about events which remain controversial and painful for many Serbs. Serbia is fed up being the villain.
First, the incident itself. Back in 1992, when Bosnia declared independence and was suddenly at war with what remained of Yugoslavia, one early problem was the presence of Yugoslav Army soldiers who had been based in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo. A deal was agreed allowing them to be escorted out of the city by UN peacekeepers to a nearby Serb-controlled area. But hours before this was due to happen, rumours spread that the Bosnian Muslim political leader Alija Izetbegovic had been arrested by Bosnian Serb forces. Bosnian Muslims then ambushed the Yugoslav Army column on Sarajevo's Dobrovoljacka Street.
That much is more or less agreed on. But, as always when discussing the Balkan War, there are differences of opinion about the numbers. Serbia claims more than 40 soldiers were killed, the Bosnians say it was much less. Serbia also alleges that some of those dead soldiers had been wounded in the initial ambush, and were executed later. The charge facing Mr Ganic is that he helped organise this, something he denies. He's the most senior of 19 Bosnian officials who were recently charged by a Serbian court over the incident.
We don't know what evidence Serbia has got, so it's difficult to say whether Mr Ganic or anybody else will ever stand trial. But what we can say is that Serbia is doing its best to correct the record of history a bit. With the war crimes case against ex-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic resuming in The Hague today, Serbia is taking the opportunity to remind us that it wasn't the only side which did bad things during the war. Just as importantly, political and judicial leaders in Belgrade want to remind their own public that they've not forgotten about events which remain controversial and painful for many Serbs. Serbia is fed up being the villain.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
Ireland Says Yes, And EU Expansion Could Follow
At the second time of asking, voters in Ireland have approved the EU's Lisbon Treaty. The treaty is supposed to make the EU run more smoothly, now that it has 27 members. Ireland is the only country which has held a referendum on the treaty, because the Irish constitution states that it has to. The treaty would probably be voted down if many other countries held similar polls, but that's not really important, because all the other EU governments are merely approving the treaty in their parliaments. That process should be complete by the end of this year.
One of the consequences of adopting the treaty is that the EU will expand further. The simpler decision-making processes that the treaty will introduce should make this traditionally tortuous process a bit easier. Countries keen to join as soon as possible include the next most likely entrant, Croatia, which is moving closer after apparently resolving a border dispute with Slovenia. After Croatia, there are other Balkan countries to consider, including Bosnia and Serbia.
For years it has seemed that those nations would ultimately be admitted into the EU once the remaining outstanding details of the 1992-95 war were resolved, such as the war criminals who remain at large. But both Bosnia and Serbia face considerable other problems. For Bosnia, the main issue is trying to get the two halves of the country (it was split into a Muslim-Croat part and a Serb part by the Dayton peace deal) to work together. After a series of disagreements between the two administrations, an international conference has been called for this Friday in Sarajevo to try to sort it out. Without political harmony across the whole of its territory, Bosnia's hopes of EU entry will remain distant.
Serbia's position is probably worse. Serb nationalism remains a potent and, in the west at least, a largely underestimated factor. There are still significant elements within Serbia which would rather the country was allied more closely with its traditional friend Russia than join the EU. Recent large-scale job losses have helped lead to dissatisfaction with the (still newish) pro-western and pro-EU government in Belgrade. Also, the recent cancellation of a planned gay pride event in fear of violence from right-wing groups has acted as a reminder that, socially, Serbia is not yet the sort of modern, forward-looking country the EU would like to welcome into the union.
There is a significant move forward coming up in January, though. Serbian citizens are expected to be given the right to travel to the rest of the EU without a visa, a privilege they last enjoyed when they were part of Yugoslavia. The fact that Serbs have not been allowed to move easily throughout Europe in recent years has helped stoke resentment against the EU. Removing that barrier could help make sure Serbia, and its people, see their future in Europe and not elsewhere.
One of the consequences of adopting the treaty is that the EU will expand further. The simpler decision-making processes that the treaty will introduce should make this traditionally tortuous process a bit easier. Countries keen to join as soon as possible include the next most likely entrant, Croatia, which is moving closer after apparently resolving a border dispute with Slovenia. After Croatia, there are other Balkan countries to consider, including Bosnia and Serbia.
For years it has seemed that those nations would ultimately be admitted into the EU once the remaining outstanding details of the 1992-95 war were resolved, such as the war criminals who remain at large. But both Bosnia and Serbia face considerable other problems. For Bosnia, the main issue is trying to get the two halves of the country (it was split into a Muslim-Croat part and a Serb part by the Dayton peace deal) to work together. After a series of disagreements between the two administrations, an international conference has been called for this Friday in Sarajevo to try to sort it out. Without political harmony across the whole of its territory, Bosnia's hopes of EU entry will remain distant.
Serbia's position is probably worse. Serb nationalism remains a potent and, in the west at least, a largely underestimated factor. There are still significant elements within Serbia which would rather the country was allied more closely with its traditional friend Russia than join the EU. Recent large-scale job losses have helped lead to dissatisfaction with the (still newish) pro-western and pro-EU government in Belgrade. Also, the recent cancellation of a planned gay pride event in fear of violence from right-wing groups has acted as a reminder that, socially, Serbia is not yet the sort of modern, forward-looking country the EU would like to welcome into the union.
There is a significant move forward coming up in January, though. Serbian citizens are expected to be given the right to travel to the rest of the EU without a visa, a privilege they last enjoyed when they were part of Yugoslavia. The fact that Serbs have not been allowed to move easily throughout Europe in recent years has helped stoke resentment against the EU. Removing that barrier could help make sure Serbia, and its people, see their future in Europe and not elsewhere.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Mladic Remains On The Run
Another anniversary has come and gone in Srebrenica. Fourteen years on from the massacre of around 8,000 Bosnian Muslim men and boys, a ceremony has been held for more than 500 of the victims whose remains have recently been identified. But the man who commanded the Bosnian Serb forces who carried out the killings, General Ratko Mladic, is still at large.
The Mladic situation is a big problem for the Serbian government. Put simply, until he's in custody, they can't even talk to the EU about joining, and that's what Serbia and the Serbian economy badly needs. Nearby Slovenia, which was largely unaffected by the 1992-95 war, has been in the union since 2004. It has prospered, and people there earn roughly double their counterparts in Serbia. Croatia, having finally arrested all of its alleged war criminals, is about to join too. With an already strong tourism industry in that country, soon Serbia will be significantly worse off than most of its neighbours, and that's a big political problem for the Serbian government.
In the past, a mixture of Serb national pride and the legacy of wartime propaganda meant that Mladic and his fellow fugitives enjoyed considerable support form ordinary Serbian people. That has helped them stay in hiding, and made it politically difficult for past Serbian governments to arrest them. But as memories of the war fade, and the Serbian economy continues to fall behind other nations in the area, that support is ebbing away. The arrest of Mladic's old partner Radovan Karadzic passed without too much trouble. When the authorities finally catch up with Mladic, the same will surely be true. Ordinary Serbs now largely realise their future lies within the EU, not in the old world of Serb nationalism.
So if the political and public will in Serbia now exists to arrest Mladic, one problem remains. Actually finding him. The hills of western Serbia and the Serb-controlled part of eastern Bosnia contain plenty of remote hiding places. And General Mladic still has support among the men he used to command. So even if NATO or Serb forces find out where he's hiding, any military operation could finish in an horrific bloodbath halfway up a mountain, with a reasonable chance Mladic would be able to slip away. The most likely ways for the authorities to detain Mladic are either if they get lucky and literally just run into him one day, or if someone betrays him for reward money. Until that day, Serbia's dreams of joining the EU will remain as dreams.
The Mladic situation is a big problem for the Serbian government. Put simply, until he's in custody, they can't even talk to the EU about joining, and that's what Serbia and the Serbian economy badly needs. Nearby Slovenia, which was largely unaffected by the 1992-95 war, has been in the union since 2004. It has prospered, and people there earn roughly double their counterparts in Serbia. Croatia, having finally arrested all of its alleged war criminals, is about to join too. With an already strong tourism industry in that country, soon Serbia will be significantly worse off than most of its neighbours, and that's a big political problem for the Serbian government.
In the past, a mixture of Serb national pride and the legacy of wartime propaganda meant that Mladic and his fellow fugitives enjoyed considerable support form ordinary Serbian people. That has helped them stay in hiding, and made it politically difficult for past Serbian governments to arrest them. But as memories of the war fade, and the Serbian economy continues to fall behind other nations in the area, that support is ebbing away. The arrest of Mladic's old partner Radovan Karadzic passed without too much trouble. When the authorities finally catch up with Mladic, the same will surely be true. Ordinary Serbs now largely realise their future lies within the EU, not in the old world of Serb nationalism.
So if the political and public will in Serbia now exists to arrest Mladic, one problem remains. Actually finding him. The hills of western Serbia and the Serb-controlled part of eastern Bosnia contain plenty of remote hiding places. And General Mladic still has support among the men he used to command. So even if NATO or Serb forces find out where he's hiding, any military operation could finish in an horrific bloodbath halfway up a mountain, with a reasonable chance Mladic would be able to slip away. The most likely ways for the authorities to detain Mladic are either if they get lucky and literally just run into him one day, or if someone betrays him for reward money. Until that day, Serbia's dreams of joining the EU will remain as dreams.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Kosovo Slips Further Away From Serbia
It's been a good day for Kosovo. That's the little part of south-east Europe that used to be part of Yugoslavia and then Serbia, and was latterly run by the UN after the 1999 war waged by NATO to end Slobodan Milosevic's attempts at ethnic cleansing. Kosovo finally declared independence from Serbia in February, and since then nearly 50 other countries have recognised that independence. Today, two of the other bits of the old Yugoslavia, Montenegro and Macedonia, also did.
Serbia went through the motions of being angry about it, and expelling Montenegro's ambassador to Belgrade. The Serbian government has to do that, because there's still plenty of its citizens who believe Kosovo should always remain part of Serbia. That feeling's been central to the idea of Serb nationalism for more than six centuries, even though these days most of the people who live there are ethnic Albanians (the same Albanians Milosevic wanted to kick out back in 1999).
But even though Serbia also this week won a vote at the UN allowing it to challenge Kosovo's independence at the International Court of Justice, it's got no realistic chance of hanging on to its former province. It's already allowed back the ambassadors of western European countries which recognised Kosovo earlier in the year. The leaders in Belgrade know that if they want to continue to move their country closer to the rest of the world, and crucially the EU, they can't play games over Kosovo. When Serbia expresses disgust at the latest developments, it's really just keeping up appearances.
Serbia went through the motions of being angry about it, and expelling Montenegro's ambassador to Belgrade. The Serbian government has to do that, because there's still plenty of its citizens who believe Kosovo should always remain part of Serbia. That feeling's been central to the idea of Serb nationalism for more than six centuries, even though these days most of the people who live there are ethnic Albanians (the same Albanians Milosevic wanted to kick out back in 1999).
But even though Serbia also this week won a vote at the UN allowing it to challenge Kosovo's independence at the International Court of Justice, it's got no realistic chance of hanging on to its former province. It's already allowed back the ambassadors of western European countries which recognised Kosovo earlier in the year. The leaders in Belgrade know that if they want to continue to move their country closer to the rest of the world, and crucially the EU, they can't play games over Kosovo. When Serbia expresses disgust at the latest developments, it's really just keeping up appearances.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Time Catches Up With Radovan Karadzic
One of the world's most wanted men has been caught. A terse statement from the Serbian government reveals that the wartime political leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Radovan Karadzic, is in custody after more than a decade as a war crimes fugitive. He's accused of orchestrating the genocide of Bosnian Muslims during the Srebrenica massacre of 1995, and ordering the killing of civilians during the siege of Sarajevo.
His capture at least partly ends a long-running embarrassment for both the Serbian government and the rest of the world. Serbia's faltering attempts to try to become a more normal country on the European and world stage have been badly affected by the fact Karadzic and his old crony Ratko Mladic have been on the run. Successive Serb politicians have been against trying too hard to arrest the pair, partly because they and the Serb nationalism they stood for are still popular among a lot of Serb people. That sticking point's made it difficult for the Serbs to try to rebuild the country, both politically and economically.
But things are a bit different now. The new Serb government has said it wants to solve the issue of war crimes fugitives. The main reason it wants to do this is so it can improve the country's relations with the rest of the world, meaning a better economy and progress towards joining the EU. Its neighbour Croatia is about to do so, having finally captured its last significant alleged war criminal Ante Gotovina in 2005. Slovenia is already in the EU, and as a result is already far wealthier than the other former members of Yugoslavia.
It's unlikely Serbia will be able to make similar progress until Mladic is also appearing before the war crimes tribunal in the Hague, but expect that to happen soon enough. It's taken 13 years since the end of the war, and eight since Slobodan Milosevic was overthrown, but Serbia's leaders are finally proving they really do want to take their country forward.
His capture at least partly ends a long-running embarrassment for both the Serbian government and the rest of the world. Serbia's faltering attempts to try to become a more normal country on the European and world stage have been badly affected by the fact Karadzic and his old crony Ratko Mladic have been on the run. Successive Serb politicians have been against trying too hard to arrest the pair, partly because they and the Serb nationalism they stood for are still popular among a lot of Serb people. That sticking point's made it difficult for the Serbs to try to rebuild the country, both politically and economically.
But things are a bit different now. The new Serb government has said it wants to solve the issue of war crimes fugitives. The main reason it wants to do this is so it can improve the country's relations with the rest of the world, meaning a better economy and progress towards joining the EU. Its neighbour Croatia is about to do so, having finally captured its last significant alleged war criminal Ante Gotovina in 2005. Slovenia is already in the EU, and as a result is already far wealthier than the other former members of Yugoslavia.
It's unlikely Serbia will be able to make similar progress until Mladic is also appearing before the war crimes tribunal in the Hague, but expect that to happen soon enough. It's taken 13 years since the end of the war, and eight since Slobodan Milosevic was overthrown, but Serbia's leaders are finally proving they really do want to take their country forward.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Northern Kosovo, Northern Ireland?
We've seen the worst violence in Kosovo since the former province of Serbia declared independence last month. UN police have been forced to pull out of Serb areas of the northern city of Mitrovica, after clashes with Serbs angry at the fact they're no longer living in Serbia. While most people in Kosovo are ethnic Albanians, hence their desire for self-government, most people in the northern part are Serbs. Unsurprisingly, this ethnic split creates tension in divided cities such as Mitrovica.
More elections are coming up in Serbia in May, after the governing coalition collapsed amid squabbling over what to do about Kosovo. A narrow majority of Serb politicians would like their country to join the EU one day, but with the big European countries recognising Kosovo's independence, that makes their pro-EU stance considerably less popular. Others would rather throw in their lot with Serbia's old ally Russia, and it's these nationalists who may now take power in May's elections.
They want things to go back to how they've been for centuries, with Kosovo as a province of Serbia. While that may not happen, some kind of compromise offer could emerge, with nationalist Serbs pushing for the partition of Kosovo. Much like Ireland, the northern Serb-dominated part could once again become part of Serbia, and in return a nationalist Serb government may agree to recognise the independence of the rest of Kosovo. Such a deal would probably be unpalatable to the Kosovars, not to mention most of the rest of the world. But don't be surprised if the borders of the Balkans are re-drawn again in the near future.
More elections are coming up in Serbia in May, after the governing coalition collapsed amid squabbling over what to do about Kosovo. A narrow majority of Serb politicians would like their country to join the EU one day, but with the big European countries recognising Kosovo's independence, that makes their pro-EU stance considerably less popular. Others would rather throw in their lot with Serbia's old ally Russia, and it's these nationalists who may now take power in May's elections.
They want things to go back to how they've been for centuries, with Kosovo as a province of Serbia. While that may not happen, some kind of compromise offer could emerge, with nationalist Serbs pushing for the partition of Kosovo. Much like Ireland, the northern Serb-dominated part could once again become part of Serbia, and in return a nationalist Serb government may agree to recognise the independence of the rest of Kosovo. Such a deal would probably be unpalatable to the Kosovars, not to mention most of the rest of the world. But don't be surprised if the borders of the Balkans are re-drawn again in the near future.
Friday, February 22, 2008
"As Long As We Live, Kosovo Is Serbia"
To put it mildly, the big demonstration in Belgrade yesterday didn't go off without trouble. Crowds of angry Serbs, furious at Kosovo's declaration of independence and the support for it in western countries, attacked foreign embassies in their capital. Parts of the US embassy were set on fire, as hundreds of people went on the rampage after the rally had ended. Earlier, Serbia's Prime Minister Kostunica told the protest, "as long as we live, Kosovo is Serbia."
So things are starting to look a bit dodgy. Although one night of violence in Belgrade doesn't mean a return to the kind of wars we saw in the 1990s, the US, Britain and EU are moving quickly to tell Serbia it's got to stop. Lots of people still have guns stashed away in their lofts in the former Yugoslavia, and the situation could get out of hand frighteningly quickly.
Serbia is being emboldened by the support of Russia and China. They agree with Serbia that Kosovo's declaration of independence on Sunday broke international law. The main reason they agree is that neither wants regions of their own countries to go down the same path as Kosovo, and break away. Both Russia and China joined the UN in strongly condemning the embassy attacks, but their support for Serbia's political position means Belgrade isn't friendless as it tries to hang on to Kosovo in the face of opposition from the US and most of the EU.
The pressure from the west should ensure the violence doesn't get any worse though. Mr Kostunica may well keep up the fiery rhetoric. After all, he's got his own political future to think about, and desperately doesn't want to go down in history as the Serb PM who gave away Kosovo. But there's no sign yet of another war, and that's the thing everyone must try to avoid.
So things are starting to look a bit dodgy. Although one night of violence in Belgrade doesn't mean a return to the kind of wars we saw in the 1990s, the US, Britain and EU are moving quickly to tell Serbia it's got to stop. Lots of people still have guns stashed away in their lofts in the former Yugoslavia, and the situation could get out of hand frighteningly quickly.
Serbia is being emboldened by the support of Russia and China. They agree with Serbia that Kosovo's declaration of independence on Sunday broke international law. The main reason they agree is that neither wants regions of their own countries to go down the same path as Kosovo, and break away. Both Russia and China joined the UN in strongly condemning the embassy attacks, but their support for Serbia's political position means Belgrade isn't friendless as it tries to hang on to Kosovo in the face of opposition from the US and most of the EU.
The pressure from the west should ensure the violence doesn't get any worse though. Mr Kostunica may well keep up the fiery rhetoric. After all, he's got his own political future to think about, and desperately doesn't want to go down in history as the Serb PM who gave away Kosovo. But there's no sign yet of another war, and that's the thing everyone must try to avoid.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Serbia's Anger Over Kosovo
Thousands of Serbs will today take part in a demonstration in Belgrade against Kosovo's declaration of independence. The Government's letting everyone go for free on the country's trains, and even tennis star Novak Djokovic is going to be there. Everyone in Serbia it seems, is not best pleased.
And it's easy to understand why. Kosovo, although nine in ten of its citizens is now of Albanian origin, holds a special place in Serbia's history. The 1389 Battle of Kosovo (against the Turks) is a key event in the rise of Serb nationalism. Six hundred years on, in 1989, Yugoslavia's Serb President Slobodan Milosevic used the anniversary of the battle to deliver a blood-and-thunder nationalist speech, that set off a chain of events leading to the wars of the 1990s.
The last of those wars involved Kosovo itself, as NATO forces bombed Serbia to prevent the Milosevic regime 'ethnically cleansing' Kosovo of its Albanians. Just like the war in Bosnia, the idea from the Serb point of view was to get rid of non-Serbs from areas traditionally considered part of Serbia, to create a 'Greater Serbia' for them and them alone.
Things are a bit different this time. Despite Serb anger over Kosovo's independence (a move encouraged by the US and some EU countries, which have been running Kosovo since the war), it doesn't look as though the Balkans will suffer another war this time. For a start, the arch-warmonger and nationalist Milosevic is dead, and the more extreme Serb nationalists were beaten in recent elections. Also, NATO and the EU are still in Kosovo, and no matter how angry his people may get, Prime Minister Kostunica surely wouldn't risk another war with the west.
Hopefully, Kosovo's independence will end up as one of the final chapters in the story of Yugoslavia's disintegration. After two decades of bloody conflict Yugoslavia has now split into seven nations - the original six countries are independent, and now Kosovo has separated from Serbia. But even though the map of the Balkans looks a bit neater today, the divisions caused by all the fighting will be remembered for as long as that first Battle of Kosovo, back in 1389. Even if no more blood is shed, the bitterness will remain.
And it's easy to understand why. Kosovo, although nine in ten of its citizens is now of Albanian origin, holds a special place in Serbia's history. The 1389 Battle of Kosovo (against the Turks) is a key event in the rise of Serb nationalism. Six hundred years on, in 1989, Yugoslavia's Serb President Slobodan Milosevic used the anniversary of the battle to deliver a blood-and-thunder nationalist speech, that set off a chain of events leading to the wars of the 1990s.
The last of those wars involved Kosovo itself, as NATO forces bombed Serbia to prevent the Milosevic regime 'ethnically cleansing' Kosovo of its Albanians. Just like the war in Bosnia, the idea from the Serb point of view was to get rid of non-Serbs from areas traditionally considered part of Serbia, to create a 'Greater Serbia' for them and them alone.
Things are a bit different this time. Despite Serb anger over Kosovo's independence (a move encouraged by the US and some EU countries, which have been running Kosovo since the war), it doesn't look as though the Balkans will suffer another war this time. For a start, the arch-warmonger and nationalist Milosevic is dead, and the more extreme Serb nationalists were beaten in recent elections. Also, NATO and the EU are still in Kosovo, and no matter how angry his people may get, Prime Minister Kostunica surely wouldn't risk another war with the west.
Hopefully, Kosovo's independence will end up as one of the final chapters in the story of Yugoslavia's disintegration. After two decades of bloody conflict Yugoslavia has now split into seven nations - the original six countries are independent, and now Kosovo has separated from Serbia. But even though the map of the Balkans looks a bit neater today, the divisions caused by all the fighting will be remembered for as long as that first Battle of Kosovo, back in 1389. Even if no more blood is shed, the bitterness will remain.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Serbia's Step In The Right Direction
Serbia's president Boris Tadic has been re-elected. The pro-western Mr Tadic beat his hardline opponent Tomislav Nikolic in a run-off election, having finished behind him in the first round of voting.
It's a result to be welcomed. Having flirted with the pro-Russia, anti-EU Mr Nikolic, an ally of the late Slobodan Milosevic, Serbian voters did the right thing in giving another term to Mr Tadic. The key to Serbia matching the growing prosperity of its eastern European neighbours is keeping alive the chance that it too will one day join the EU. Negotiations about entry have been difficult so far, not least because the two most wanted war crimes suspects from the 1992-1995 war remain on the run.
Mr Mikolic tried to capitalise on the frustration many Serbs feel about the slow nature of their progress towards the EU. He offered a future outside the EU, but close to Russia. While it obviously seemed attractive to many Serbs to cosy up to its newly confident old ally, it would have left Serbia divided from most of the rest of Europe, and without the investment, trade and other benefits of EU membership. The re-election of Mr Tadic shows most Serbians want to be part of Europe. While there's a lot to do before they can be welcomed into the club, it's a big step in the right direction.
It's a result to be welcomed. Having flirted with the pro-Russia, anti-EU Mr Nikolic, an ally of the late Slobodan Milosevic, Serbian voters did the right thing in giving another term to Mr Tadic. The key to Serbia matching the growing prosperity of its eastern European neighbours is keeping alive the chance that it too will one day join the EU. Negotiations about entry have been difficult so far, not least because the two most wanted war crimes suspects from the 1992-1995 war remain on the run.
Mr Mikolic tried to capitalise on the frustration many Serbs feel about the slow nature of their progress towards the EU. He offered a future outside the EU, but close to Russia. While it obviously seemed attractive to many Serbs to cosy up to its newly confident old ally, it would have left Serbia divided from most of the rest of Europe, and without the investment, trade and other benefits of EU membership. The re-election of Mr Tadic shows most Serbians want to be part of Europe. While there's a lot to do before they can be welcomed into the club, it's a big step in the right direction.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Trouble Ahead
A former rebel fighter has claimed victory in elections in Kosovo. Hashim Thaci's party seems likely to lead a grand coalition of Kosovar politicians, into a final showdown with Serbia over the future of the breakaway province. Next month, mediators are supposed to report on attempts to reach a compromise deal. With no sign of one, Mr Thaci says he'll declare independence anyway.
The long-running battle over Kosovo's future, with Serbia insisting it keeps control over the province, and Kosovo's ethnic Albanians demanding independence, has its roots much further back than the NATO war of 1999. In recent months, the Kosovo question's been fought on Cold War lines, with Serbia's traditional ally Russia threatening to use its veto at the UN to block independence.
But the talking can't go on forever, and with a worsening political crisis apparently just ahead, there's no doubt armed conflict is a possibility. If that wasn't bad enough, the prospect of the wider Balkans once again being engulfed in war is not totally unlikely. That's because, alnogside the Kosovo problem, Bosnia's currently in the midst of its worst political crisis since the 1995 peace deal brought years of bitter fighting to an overdue end.
The common factor in both crises is that Serbia feels its interests are under threat. Serbia's long-time goal in the area is to create a Greater Serbia - keeping hold of Kosovo and incorporating the Serb chunk of Bosnia into the country proper. It was this ambition that led to the war and ethnic cleansing of the 1990s. If Serbia believes it's being backed into a corner, its militia fighters may yet take up arms once again. There are already reports of the secret mustering of men in Bosnian Serb territory, and in a land where many still keep rifles in their attics, that's a very serious prospect.
EU peacekeeping forces are currently still in Bosnia, but their mandate runs out this week. It's not really clear whether they'll legally be able to stay or not. Clearly, the departure of international troops would be very badly timed, and could embolden any militia groups who are considering taking up arms. As things come to a head, it's up to diplomats in Europe and elsewhere to make the Balkans their top priority, to avoid another senseless and bloody war.
The long-running battle over Kosovo's future, with Serbia insisting it keeps control over the province, and Kosovo's ethnic Albanians demanding independence, has its roots much further back than the NATO war of 1999. In recent months, the Kosovo question's been fought on Cold War lines, with Serbia's traditional ally Russia threatening to use its veto at the UN to block independence.
But the talking can't go on forever, and with a worsening political crisis apparently just ahead, there's no doubt armed conflict is a possibility. If that wasn't bad enough, the prospect of the wider Balkans once again being engulfed in war is not totally unlikely. That's because, alnogside the Kosovo problem, Bosnia's currently in the midst of its worst political crisis since the 1995 peace deal brought years of bitter fighting to an overdue end.
The common factor in both crises is that Serbia feels its interests are under threat. Serbia's long-time goal in the area is to create a Greater Serbia - keeping hold of Kosovo and incorporating the Serb chunk of Bosnia into the country proper. It was this ambition that led to the war and ethnic cleansing of the 1990s. If Serbia believes it's being backed into a corner, its militia fighters may yet take up arms once again. There are already reports of the secret mustering of men in Bosnian Serb territory, and in a land where many still keep rifles in their attics, that's a very serious prospect.
EU peacekeeping forces are currently still in Bosnia, but their mandate runs out this week. It's not really clear whether they'll legally be able to stay or not. Clearly, the departure of international troops would be very badly timed, and could embolden any militia groups who are considering taking up arms. As things come to a head, it's up to diplomats in Europe and elsewhere to make the Balkans their top priority, to avoid another senseless and bloody war.
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Carving Up Bosnia, Again
The Serb politician who held the rotating Prime Ministership of Bosnia has resigned. Nikola Spiric quit because the international diplomat who still runs the country (it used to be Paddy Ashdown, now it's a Slovak) went ahead with EU-backed efforts to change the way decisions are made there.
The reforms will restrict the number of ministers needed to take a decision. In practice, it means that none of the three ethnic groups involved in Bosnia's complicated government can scupper anything by simply walking out, as they can do at present. The Bosnian Serbs are worried the Bosniaks and Croats will gang up on them to pass laws they don't like, which is probably true enough. What's less clear is what can be done to solve the political crisis, arguably the worst since the end of the war 12 years ago.
When that conflict ended with the Dayton Peace Accords, the deal was criticised for rewarding Bosnian Serb aggression, by giving 49 percent of Bosnia's territory to a devolved Serb statelet, the Republika Srprska. Although technically still part of Bosnia, the RS is divided from the Bosniak-Croat 51 percent by barriers of culture, language, and population - Serbs from elsewhere in Bosnia moved to the RS, while Bosniaks and Croats living there headed out. Twelve years on, Bosnia is more ethnically divided now than it was at the end of the war.
And this helps explain why Mr Spiric resigned. What the Serbs wanted from the war in the first place was a so-called Greater Serbia, grafting the Serb-dominated bits of Bosnia on to the existing Serbia. That didn't happen, but the RS is the next best thing for them. And if political divisions within Bosnia get wider, the odds on the RS eventually breaking off to become part of Serbia grow shorter. Despite Srebrenica and everything else, the Serbs are edging closer to ultimate victory.
The reforms will restrict the number of ministers needed to take a decision. In practice, it means that none of the three ethnic groups involved in Bosnia's complicated government can scupper anything by simply walking out, as they can do at present. The Bosnian Serbs are worried the Bosniaks and Croats will gang up on them to pass laws they don't like, which is probably true enough. What's less clear is what can be done to solve the political crisis, arguably the worst since the end of the war 12 years ago.
When that conflict ended with the Dayton Peace Accords, the deal was criticised for rewarding Bosnian Serb aggression, by giving 49 percent of Bosnia's territory to a devolved Serb statelet, the Republika Srprska. Although technically still part of Bosnia, the RS is divided from the Bosniak-Croat 51 percent by barriers of culture, language, and population - Serbs from elsewhere in Bosnia moved to the RS, while Bosniaks and Croats living there headed out. Twelve years on, Bosnia is more ethnically divided now than it was at the end of the war.
And this helps explain why Mr Spiric resigned. What the Serbs wanted from the war in the first place was a so-called Greater Serbia, grafting the Serb-dominated bits of Bosnia on to the existing Serbia. That didn't happen, but the RS is the next best thing for them. And if political divisions within Bosnia get wider, the odds on the RS eventually breaking off to become part of Serbia grow shorter. Despite Srebrenica and everything else, the Serbs are edging closer to ultimate victory.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
Drifting
The top international diplomat who runs Bosnia is stepping down. It had been hoped Christian Schwarz-Schilling would be the last foreign figure to take the role, effectively acting as an overlord to the Bosnian, Croat and Serb politicians who run the still bitterly divided country. But then, it had been hoped the man he replaced, Paddy Ashdown, would be the last too. Sadly, not enough progress has been made, and so a Slovak official's now going to do the job.
Although there's no danger of Bosnia slipping back into war, the huge animosity between the sides means it's difficult to see how things can improve enough to let them totally govern themselves. The wounds from the war of the 1990s are still wide open, and the three groups just hate each other too much to work together. The continuing doubts over whether Kosovo will become independent from Serbia simply adds to the somewhat uncertain future in the Balkans. We're now told full power will be returned to politicians in Bosnia by the middle of next year, but don't be surprised if it drifts still further.
Although there's no danger of Bosnia slipping back into war, the huge animosity between the sides means it's difficult to see how things can improve enough to let them totally govern themselves. The wounds from the war of the 1990s are still wide open, and the three groups just hate each other too much to work together. The continuing doubts over whether Kosovo will become independent from Serbia simply adds to the somewhat uncertain future in the Balkans. We're now told full power will be returned to politicians in Bosnia by the middle of next year, but don't be surprised if it drifts still further.
Friday, May 11, 2007
A Deal, At Last
Better news from Belgrade, where parties have finally agreed a coalition deal more than three months after Serbia's general election. The really good bit is that the agreement keeps out the largest party in the parliament, the ultra-nationalist Radicals. Their Milosevic-style rhetoric and firm opposition to an independent Kosovo had caused plenty of people around the world to wonder whether Serbia might go back to the bad old days of the 1990s.
Within a couple of hours of the agreement being announced, the draft resolution on Kosovo was circulated at the UN. Despite grumblings from Russia, the political deal in Belgrade makes it a lot more likely we'll see an independent Kosovo fairly soon. It also means joining the EU is back on the cards for the Serbs, with what they call pre-membership talks certain to restart once the new government's in place.
Serbia's mainstream politicians have proved with this agreement they can turn their backs on the old ways. But they, the EU, the UN, and everyone else, must do a better job of convincing the Serb public of the way forward. The rise of the Radicals proves many are still inclined to flirt with the worst kind of nationalism.
Within a couple of hours of the agreement being announced, the draft resolution on Kosovo was circulated at the UN. Despite grumblings from Russia, the political deal in Belgrade makes it a lot more likely we'll see an independent Kosovo fairly soon. It also means joining the EU is back on the cards for the Serbs, with what they call pre-membership talks certain to restart once the new government's in place.
Serbia's mainstream politicians have proved with this agreement they can turn their backs on the old ways. But they, the EU, the UN, and everyone else, must do a better job of convincing the Serb public of the way forward. The rise of the Radicals proves many are still inclined to flirt with the worst kind of nationalism.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Endgame
The US and European countries intend to circulate a draft resolution at the UN, that would give independence to Kosovo. The province of Serbia's basically been run by the UN since NATO's 1999 war, prompted by the then Serb regime's policy of driving out ethnic Albanians. It looks as if Serbian politicians will have to admit defeat in their efforts to keep Kosovo part of their country.
Or maybe not just yet. Russia's still hinting it might veto the plan, as it can do because it's one of the permanent five members of the UN Security Council. You might wonder why Russia still bothers trying to back up its old allies in Belgrade, but there's a clear parallel between the recent rise of national feeling in both countries. Russia's Vladimir Putin's trying very hard to extend his influence over just about anyone who'll give him the time of day, and countries that have been friendly to Moscow in the past are proving easier to win over. The successes of hardline politicians in Serbia, at times echoing the bad old days of Milosevic, proves Serb nationalism didn't die when he did. The UN, the US and Europe must avoid forcing Kosovo into independence any earlier than is absolutely necessary, or the Balkans may again prove to be the source of big trouble.
Or maybe not just yet. Russia's still hinting it might veto the plan, as it can do because it's one of the permanent five members of the UN Security Council. You might wonder why Russia still bothers trying to back up its old allies in Belgrade, but there's a clear parallel between the recent rise of national feeling in both countries. Russia's Vladimir Putin's trying very hard to extend his influence over just about anyone who'll give him the time of day, and countries that have been friendly to Moscow in the past are proving easier to win over. The successes of hardline politicians in Serbia, at times echoing the bad old days of Milosevic, proves Serb nationalism didn't die when he did. The UN, the US and Europe must avoid forcing Kosovo into independence any earlier than is absolutely necessary, or the Balkans may again prove to be the source of big trouble.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Serbia Moves On
It's a good day for Serbia. Four ex-paramilitaries have been convicted of carrying out the killings of six Bosnian Muslims during the Srebrenica Massacre of 1995. It might not seem like much when set against the 8,000 or so Muslim men and boys who died at Srebrenica, but there are two things that are particularly significant about this case.
First is that the killings were filmed. While that made it easy to convict the four, the fact the tape has been widely played in Serbia in recent years has proved to disbelieving Serb civilians what the rest of the world already knew; that Serbs didn't just kill Muslims in the heat of battle, but sometimes lined them up and shot them down.
The other reason why this is such a big deal, is that the four were found guilty by a Serb court. This is the most serious case so far heard at the Serb war crimes court, which takes cases the big international tribunal in The Hague doesn't have time for. Even though the evidence was pretty overwhelming, it's still welcome to see the Serb system has at last moved on enough to find some of its own people guilty of taking part in Srebrenica. For Serbia, and Bosnia too, it's another step on the long road back from that hellish war.
First is that the killings were filmed. While that made it easy to convict the four, the fact the tape has been widely played in Serbia in recent years has proved to disbelieving Serb civilians what the rest of the world already knew; that Serbs didn't just kill Muslims in the heat of battle, but sometimes lined them up and shot them down.
The other reason why this is such a big deal, is that the four were found guilty by a Serb court. This is the most serious case so far heard at the Serb war crimes court, which takes cases the big international tribunal in The Hague doesn't have time for. Even though the evidence was pretty overwhelming, it's still welcome to see the Serb system has at last moved on enough to find some of its own people guilty of taking part in Srebrenica. For Serbia, and Bosnia too, it's another step on the long road back from that hellish war.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
"The Only Viable Option"
The UN's man in Kosovo, ex-Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, has delivered a report to the Security Council saying the territory should become an independent country. Kosovo, a part of Serbia that's full of Albanians, has been run by the UN since the war in 1999. The plans would give it an internationally-supervised sovereignty. If all's well, Kosovo would get full independence after that. The Kosovo Albanians are happy enough with this. What actually happens next is up to Serbia and its old ally Russia.
Kosovo has a near-mythical place in Serb history as a cradle of Serb nationalism, and they desperately don't want to let it go. In 1989, Slobodan Milosevic's blood-and-thunder rhetoric on the anniversary of the 1389 Battle of Kosovo helped stoke anti-Muslim feeling among Serbs, which eventually led to the collapse of Yugoslavia and the wars of the mid-nineties. Later, he tried to kick all the Albanians out of Kosovo, which led to the war with NATO, which ironically looks like guaranteeing that Kosovo won't be part of Serbia anymore.
Losing Kosovo would make any Serb politician very unpopular indeed, especially as most of them were recently re-elected because of their firm opposition to exactly that. But the Serb politicians also know there's little chance of doing all the things needed to make their country better again (such as starting talks on EU entry) unless the Kosovo problem is sorted out. They're trying to stall things as long as they can, in the hope the UN agrees to an autonomous Kosovo that stops short of full independence.
This is where the Russians come in. They're already calling for more talks, and by threatening to wield their veto in the Security Council, they might make sure that happens. The Russians are doing this partly because they feel a sense of allegiance to their old friends in Belgrade, but mainly because President Putin is set on trying to keep Russia's sphere of influence in place. It's another example of the Kremlin setting itself up as a challenger to the west, rather than a friend.
Kosovo has a near-mythical place in Serb history as a cradle of Serb nationalism, and they desperately don't want to let it go. In 1989, Slobodan Milosevic's blood-and-thunder rhetoric on the anniversary of the 1389 Battle of Kosovo helped stoke anti-Muslim feeling among Serbs, which eventually led to the collapse of Yugoslavia and the wars of the mid-nineties. Later, he tried to kick all the Albanians out of Kosovo, which led to the war with NATO, which ironically looks like guaranteeing that Kosovo won't be part of Serbia anymore.
Losing Kosovo would make any Serb politician very unpopular indeed, especially as most of them were recently re-elected because of their firm opposition to exactly that. But the Serb politicians also know there's little chance of doing all the things needed to make their country better again (such as starting talks on EU entry) unless the Kosovo problem is sorted out. They're trying to stall things as long as they can, in the hope the UN agrees to an autonomous Kosovo that stops short of full independence.
This is where the Russians come in. They're already calling for more talks, and by threatening to wield their veto in the Security Council, they might make sure that happens. The Russians are doing this partly because they feel a sense of allegiance to their old friends in Belgrade, but mainly because President Putin is set on trying to keep Russia's sphere of influence in place. It's another example of the Kremlin setting itself up as a challenger to the west, rather than a friend.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
The Trail's Gone Cold
Authorities in Montenegro spent the weekend talking to various members of the Karadzic family, amid rumours the fugitive Radovan Karadzic has been hiding out there lately. The former political leader of the Bosnian Serbs has been on the run for more than a decade, as has his military henchman Ratko Mladic. Despite being Europe's most wanted men, little's been heard of them in all that time.
It seems certain both are somewhere in either Serbia, Montenegro, or the Republika Srpska, which is the Serb bit of Bosnia. But a mixture of some of Europe's roughest terrain, fiercely loyal elements in the Serb military, and general incompetence and corruption among local officials, has made it easy for them to remain at large. But they'll be caught eventually, and it's the EU that holds the key to how quickly it'll happen.
The other Balkan countries are casting envious eyes at Slovenia, which was barely touched by the war and is firmly in the club these days. It's twice as prosperous as the rest of the former Yugoslavia, and proudly flies the EU flag from its embassies around the world. The other nations are still exhausted by the war, and need the prospect of EU entry to help them establish themselves. But Brussels rightly won't talk until all the war criminals are handed over. Croatia's government finally gave in 15 months ago, risking mass unpopularity with its people by giving up its most wanted fugitive, Ante Gotovina. A national hero for leading the Croats to victory over the Serbs in 1995, he's now answering questions about hundreds of dead Serb civilians. Croatia's reward is likely EU membership within two years, which will mean money, investment and lots more tourism on its Adriatic coast.
It's money and investment that's even more desperately needed in Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. But as long as politicians and police in each country think the capture of Karadzic and Mladic would make enough of the public angry, they won't try too hard to find them. That's why it's up to the EU to make a big show of twisting arms. It should do two things: first, set a deadline of later this year, and tell the three governments that if they're not in custody by then, talks on EU membership will be off the table for a generation; and also put up a much bigger cash reward for whoever hands them in, in the hope it'll persuade someone shielding them to finally betray them. Those two juicy carrots might just do the trick, but it's up to Brussels to make it happen.
It seems certain both are somewhere in either Serbia, Montenegro, or the Republika Srpska, which is the Serb bit of Bosnia. But a mixture of some of Europe's roughest terrain, fiercely loyal elements in the Serb military, and general incompetence and corruption among local officials, has made it easy for them to remain at large. But they'll be caught eventually, and it's the EU that holds the key to how quickly it'll happen.
The other Balkan countries are casting envious eyes at Slovenia, which was barely touched by the war and is firmly in the club these days. It's twice as prosperous as the rest of the former Yugoslavia, and proudly flies the EU flag from its embassies around the world. The other nations are still exhausted by the war, and need the prospect of EU entry to help them establish themselves. But Brussels rightly won't talk until all the war criminals are handed over. Croatia's government finally gave in 15 months ago, risking mass unpopularity with its people by giving up its most wanted fugitive, Ante Gotovina. A national hero for leading the Croats to victory over the Serbs in 1995, he's now answering questions about hundreds of dead Serb civilians. Croatia's reward is likely EU membership within two years, which will mean money, investment and lots more tourism on its Adriatic coast.
It's money and investment that's even more desperately needed in Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. But as long as politicians and police in each country think the capture of Karadzic and Mladic would make enough of the public angry, they won't try too hard to find them. That's why it's up to the EU to make a big show of twisting arms. It should do two things: first, set a deadline of later this year, and tell the three governments that if they're not in custody by then, talks on EU membership will be off the table for a generation; and also put up a much bigger cash reward for whoever hands them in, in the hope it'll persuade someone shielding them to finally betray them. Those two juicy carrots might just do the trick, but it's up to Brussels to make it happen.
Monday, February 26, 2007
Cleared
Serbia has been cleared by a UN court of being directly responsible for genocide in Bosnia during the Balkan Wars of the 1990s. The judges decided that only the Srebrenica massacre of 1995, in which around 8,000 Bosnian Muslim men and boys were slaughtered by Bosnian Serb forces, actually constituted an act of genocide. Although they did tell Serbia it failed in its responsibility to stop that massacre happening, their overall ruling means Bosnia won't get any compensation.
At first glance it looks like the wrong decision. Although politicians in Belgrade can't be blamed for all the actions on the ground of Bosnian Serb generals led by the (still on the run) Ratko Mladic, the idea they didn't know what was going on is nonsense. Right up to Serbia's then-President Slobodan Milosevic, the Belgrade government at the very least decided to turn a blind eye to the killing. On that basis, the court probably should have convicted Serbia.
But the judges' decision is actually pretty realistic. Raiding the Serb treasury to give money to Bosnia wouldn't do much good 12 years on. With corruption and confusion still common in the way Bosnia is run at local levels, a lot of the cash probably wouldn't get to the bereaved families anyway. Although finding Serbia guilty would have been symbolic, both Bosnia and Serbia need real progress rather than symbols. Offering both countries more hope of entry to the EU sooner rather than later is the best way to leave the dark days of the recent past behind.
At first glance it looks like the wrong decision. Although politicians in Belgrade can't be blamed for all the actions on the ground of Bosnian Serb generals led by the (still on the run) Ratko Mladic, the idea they didn't know what was going on is nonsense. Right up to Serbia's then-President Slobodan Milosevic, the Belgrade government at the very least decided to turn a blind eye to the killing. On that basis, the court probably should have convicted Serbia.
But the judges' decision is actually pretty realistic. Raiding the Serb treasury to give money to Bosnia wouldn't do much good 12 years on. With corruption and confusion still common in the way Bosnia is run at local levels, a lot of the cash probably wouldn't get to the bereaved families anyway. Although finding Serbia guilty would have been symbolic, both Bosnia and Serbia need real progress rather than symbols. Offering both countries more hope of entry to the EU sooner rather than later is the best way to leave the dark days of the recent past behind.
Monday, February 12, 2007
The Balkans - A Warning From History
Here's something that could be a sign of much worse to come. The West has been treading incredibly carefully around Kosovo in the eight years since the war, desperate to avoid another Balkan mega-conflict. But eventually the polar opposites of an ethnic Albanian population keen on independence, and a Serbian people and its leaders who don't want to give the province away, are going to clash. And as the UN edges Kosovo towards independence, the weekend's violence shows that clash is starting to happen now.
The big reason to be worried is what hardline politicians in Serbia might decide to do. The strong performance of the hard-right Radicals in last month's elections can only embolden them as they negotiate with the West. They see keeping Kosovo part of Serbia as the main aim of their party - and many of their supporters believe it's the best way of continuing to fight the battles of (whisper it) Slobodan Milosevic. It was his suspension of autonomy for Kosovo and his blood-and-thunder rhetoric on the issue in 1989 that helped tear Yugoslavia into blood-soaked pieces. As the UN tries to play the midwife to an independent Kosovo, it must make sure it throws the hardline Serbs enough bones to keep violence off the streets. If that includes denying Kosovo some of the trappings of a sovereign state, then so be it. A bad misjudgement and things could get out of control very quickly.
The big reason to be worried is what hardline politicians in Serbia might decide to do. The strong performance of the hard-right Radicals in last month's elections can only embolden them as they negotiate with the West. They see keeping Kosovo part of Serbia as the main aim of their party - and many of their supporters believe it's the best way of continuing to fight the battles of (whisper it) Slobodan Milosevic. It was his suspension of autonomy for Kosovo and his blood-and-thunder rhetoric on the issue in 1989 that helped tear Yugoslavia into blood-soaked pieces. As the UN tries to play the midwife to an independent Kosovo, it must make sure it throws the hardline Serbs enough bones to keep violence off the streets. If that includes denying Kosovo some of the trappings of a sovereign state, then so be it. A bad misjudgement and things could get out of control very quickly.
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