Victory For Viktor As Ukraine's Future Is No Longer Orange

Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is trying to carry on as normal, despite her apparent defeat in Sunday's presidential election. It appears she may try to challenge the official result, which gave victory to Viktor Yanukovych. But with international observers saying the election was fair, her hopes of getting the outcome changed seem remote.

Don't be surprised if these names ring a vague bell with you. Five years ago it was these two politicians, along with the outgoing President, Viktor Yuschenko, who were at the centre of events surrounding the so-called Orange Revolution. Then, the pro-Russia Mr Yanukovych won a blatantly rigged vote. After widespread public protests, a new vote was held, won comfortably by the pro-Western Mr Yuschenko, with Mrs Tymoshenko at his side. Russia fumed as another of the former Soviet states moved away from Moscow's influence towards Europe and the West.

But although the future seemed bright, the Orange Revolution turned sour. Unsurprisingly, Mr Yuschenko's years in power have been marked by worsening relations with Russia, including high-profile battles over energy supplies. Yet there's also been growing frustration in Western countries, and among Mr Yuschenko's own supporters, at his failure to actually get things done in office. He didn't follow through on his promises to tackle corruption, nor did he adequately deal with the bitterness and domestic political deadlock that was the legacy of the Orange Revolution. Perhaps most devastatingly, he failed to find a way of setting Ukraine on a path to EU membership. He leaves office humiliated, having finished a distant fifth in the first round of presidential voting last month.

So, now the Kremlin has finally got its man, we can expect Ukraine to edge back towards what diplomats call Russia's "sphere of influence." This is an old-fashioned phrase which basically means Ukraine will be friendly towards Moscow. Those arguments about energy pipelines and suchlike should be replaced by extra trade with Russia and other regional allies, such as Belarus. But Mr Yanukovych can't afford to simply do whatever Russia wants. There are plenty of businesses in Ukraine which depend on trade with the EU and the West, and he'll have to defend their interests too if he's serious about dragging Ukraine out of its current deep economic crisis. If people still can't find jobs or put food on the table, the novelty of a new government will soon wear off. It's time for Mr Yanukovych to get to work.

Growing Pains

Rangoon's not the only city seeing anti-government protests this week. Thousand of people have marched in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, angry at the arrest of a senior minister who has accused President Saakashvili of plotting to kill a businessman. Meanwhile, Ukraine votes on Sunday in parliamentary elections called following yet another political crisis.

It wasn't meant to be like this. Not so long ago, Georgia and Ukraine were being hailed by western leaders, after street protests in both countries led to changes in governments. In both nations, pro-western and anti-Kremlin leaders were swept to power, with promises of new dawns and brighter futures. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it hasn't been that easy, and aside from the turmoil in Georgia, the split coalition that led Ukraine's Orange Revolution now faces a challenge from a resurgent old guard.

The main reason why new governments have struggled in Georgia and Ukraine is not their pro-western policies - although perhaps the people of both countries were allowed to foster unrealistic hopes of how quickly their lives might change for the better. Really it's down to a mixture of inexperience and infighting, problems that can affect any new administration in any country. But even if voters in either nation end up turning again to those who ran the show previously, they've both already come far enough for us to be sure the people don't want to turn the clock all the way back.

Round Two

Demonstrators are on the steets of the Ukrainian capital Kiev, as the country plunges into a constitutional crisis. But unlike the Orange Revolution that brought the pro-western Viktor Yushchenko to the presidency in 2004, this time it's supporters of his rival, the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych, who are angrily gathering to protest.

Mr Yanukovych has been spoiling for another fight ever since he finished as the loser from those heady days a little over two years ago. He's been steadily gaining more power as the coalition that brought Mr Yushchenko to power gradually splits apart, himself becoming prime minister. He's apparently been breaking the country's constitution by luring politicians over from Mr Yushchenko's side, which has prompted his rival to announce a snap election.

This Orange Revolution Round Two doesn't look like having much practical impact outside Ukraine's borders, or at least not yet. Were the country to become unstable and slip close to a civil war, then we might have cause to worry about the pipeline that takes energy from Russia through Ukraine to the EU, but there's no sign of things getting that bad. However, countries will be watching closely, with Russia hoping Mr Yanukovych emerges on top, and just about everyone else looking to Mr Yushchenko. In his struggle with the west for influence over the old Soviet bloc, Russia's Vladimir Putin would like all the important friends he can get.