Suicide Bombers Return To Moscow

Two suicide attacks have been carried out on the Moscow underground. Dozens of people have been reported killed. It's believed the bombers were women, and suspicion has already fallen on Chechen terrorists.

The choice of one of the targets in particular is significant. One of the explosions hit the station underneath the Lubyanka, the infamous former home of the Soviet secret service, the KGB, and still used by its successor, the FSB. The message from whoever was behind the attacks is clear enough. Nowhere in Russia, not even important buildings belonging to the central government, is safe.

There are plenty of reasons for assuming this is the work of the Chechens. First, women were involved, as they were in attacks on the Moscow underground and two airliners back in 2004 (around the same time as the Beslan Massacre). Those incidents were blamed on the so-called 'Black Widows' of Chechen soldiers killed fighting the Russians. Also, the Russian military has recently had a series of succeses in its campaign against Islamic separatists fighting in Chechnya and nearby republics, so it was a timely moment for the rebels to show they're still capable of striking back. One of the main websites used by Chechens, Kavkaz Center, is already repeating a familiar allegation, that the attacks were in fact false flag operations carried out by the Russian security services themselves.

As for what happens next, history tells us the Chechens will probably have more spectacular attacks planned. Despite the inevitable tightening of security across Russia, the country and its transport infrastructure is so vast, it will be almost impossible for the Kremlin to protect every possible target. Instead, expect President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin to order high-profile military retaliations in and around Chechnya, to shore up both public confidence, and their own reputations.

All Aboard For Grozny

A rare piece of good news has come out of Chechnya, as flights to and from Moscow resume for the first time since the wars of the 1990s. I don't imagine too many people will be rushing to book their tickets to Grozny, but that's not the point. This is merely a symbolic gesture, as the Kremlin tries to edge Checnhya back towards stability.

Having failed to wipe out the separatist rebels, Moscow now realises the only way to stop Chechnya remaining a bloody and expensive irritant is to make things there as 'normal' as possible. In practice, this means propping up a pro-Russian leader in Ramzan Kadyrov, and ignoring his death squads who rampage around the country bumping off anyone who doesn't agree with him. As long as Kadyrov doesn't end up assassinated like his father, his rule is as 'stable' as things are going to get. He's certainly succeeded in keeping the rebels down - they've been quiet since the spectacular assault on nearby Nalchik almost 18 months ago.

Today's resumption of flights is the next tentative step on bringing Chechnya back into the Russian fold. Moscow's greatest fear is that the Chechen conflict will spill into neighbouring republics, leading to large bits of Russia simply splintering apart. But its canny current policy means that's looking less likely by the day.