No Sign Of Easy Solution To Libya Conflict

France has reportedly begun supplying weapons on the quiet to the rebels in Libya, in an attempt to help them break the apparent stalemate in their battle against Colonel Gaddafi's forces. According to a source quoted in Le Figaro, France took the action without consulting its partners in the NATO bombing of the regime, because "there was no other way to proceed."

It's been slow going over the past three months for France, Britain and their allies. Forced to intervene to prevent a possible massacre when Gaddafi's forces reached the gates of the rebel-held Benghazi, the notion that Gaddafi's regime might fall quickly under pressure from the rebel forces on the ground and the NATO warplanes in the air now looks wildly optimistic. The popular uprising against Gaddafi which western leaders undoubtedly hoped for has not materialised, and instead of being on the side of the Libyan people, NATO rather appears to be merely on one side in a civil war. And the weaker side at that.

How NATO extracts itself from the conflict is less clear. But for a lesson from recent history, we can look a little further to the north in Bosnia. There, although the country's borders have remained in tact, largely separate administrations exist for the Serb-dominated areas, and those populated by Muslims and Croats. Critics say it's a solution which has put the conflict into deep freeze rather than solved it, but at least nobody's killing each other anymore.

Diplomats are reluctant to encourage the break-up of any nation, for fear that could spread instability to neighbouring countries, and the preferred option for those looking at Libya from both near and far would undoubtedly be it to remain in one piece. But when the internationally-brokered peace deal finally arrives, as surely it must, don't be surprised if it's a horribly complicated mess of regional assemblies and bureaucracies, that keeps everyone more or less apart, and just about happy enough to avoid reaching for their guns.

Colonel Gaddafi Digs In

Libyan military forces loyal to Colonel Gaddafi have spent another day counter-attacking rebel positions in the east of the country. After large parts of the country fell during the early stages of the uprising, it's now the regime forces which are making most of the running.

Libya is different to Egypt and Tunisia, the two other North African countries in which autocratic leaders have recently departed in the face of public opposition. Part of it is down to Colonel Gaddafi himself, a man habitually described as mad, or at the very least unpredictable. Despite suggestions he might flee to Venezuela, he has remained in Tripoli in an attempt to see off the uprising, perhaps because he refuses to believe many of his people really have turned against him, and perhaps because after 42 years in power he simply can't contemplate leaving.

But part of it is also down to the internal structures of Libya. In Egypt, it was the powerful military, and its refusal to turn on the protestors, which spelled the end for President Mubarak. However, Libya has a relatively weak military, a legacy of Colonel Gaddafi wanting to prevent a coup of the sort that first brought him to power.

There are also large numbers of African mercenaries on Gaddafi's side, reportedly being paid $200 a day to fight. These are desperate men who have no qualms about attacking rebels and civilians. The international disgust about Libyan forces "firing on their own people" slightly misses the point. The foreign fighters aren't firing on their own people as such. They're doing what they're being paid to do, and as a result are much more likely to remain loyal to Gaddafi.

Any hopes of a relatively bloodless revolution and transition to democracy have already been dashed. Years and possibly decades of fighting, negotiations, peace plans, and international involvement now look very likely.

Scottish Compassion, American Anger

The only man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing is back in his home country of Libya, where he will live out the last weeks of his life. Former Libyan secret agent Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi has terminal cancer. He's also the biggest mass murderer in British history, yet Scotland's justice secretary Kenny MacAskill has still decided to release him on compassionate grounds because of his illness. Most of the Lockerbie victims were American, and President Obama has led criticism of the decision, describing it as a "mistake."

It's not unusual in Scotland for prisoners, even serious criminals, to be released to die at home in this sort of situation. And because the bombing took place over a Scottish town, and al-Megrahi was later convicted by a Scottish court, it's the Scottish legal system, not that of England or the US, which is important here. With so many precedents in Scotland for showing this sort of compassion, Mr MacAskill is on solid ground legally to let al-Megrahi go.

Politically it's a different matter. While many of the British families of Lockerbie victims have expressed doubt about al-Megrahi's conviction, that's not the case in the US, where there remains a widespread belief that the right man was convicted, even though the evidence against him is circumstantial and thin at best, and there's surely no way he could have acted alone. This means US politicians are inevitably going to say al-Megrahi should die in jail. The images of al-Megrahi being greeted as a hero on his return to Tripoli don't help, and they've given plenty of fodder to the predictably furious commentators on US cable news.

Whether al-Megrahi really was the bomber or not cannot have been relevant to Mr MacAskill's decision. In the eyes of Scots law, he was. So, that Mr MacAskill resisted all this huge international political pressure is to his credit. It would have been far easier to let al-Megrahi die in Greenock jail. It seems that there's been no deal between Scotland and Libya, Scotland is getting nothing (except American scorn) for this act of mercy. Politicians often talk about making tough decisions, Mr MacAskill has actually gone ahead and made one. President Obama might not like it, but that's just tough. It's not up to him.

There are still plenty of questions about Lockerbie which remain unanswered. Who helped al-Megrahi? Did the Libyan government order the attack? Was it a different government, possibly Iran? Did al-Megrahi and Libya actually have nothing to do with it? Despite al-Megrahi's release, we seem no closer to finding out the answers to any of these. Perhaps the renewed interest in Lockerbie will flush out some new information. But with Libya keen to forget about the whole episode and continue its new, friendlier relationship with the west, I wouldn't bet on it.

It's Over

Five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor, accused of infecting hundreds of Libyan children with HIV, have been freed at last. They've been held in a Libyan jail for eight years, and at one stage were sentenced to death. But now they've been released as part of what's being described as a "full partnership" deal between Libya and the EU, of which Bulgaria is now a member.

This is Libya's latest step on the road to normal relations with Europe and other western countries. After years of sanctions following his bolshy behaviour in the 80s, and his subsequent refusal to hand over the Lockerbie bombing suspects, Libya's leader Colonel Gadaffi realised it was better to be on the inside rather than the outside in international relations, not least to help shore up his own domestic dictatorship. Following the Lockerbie trial, and then his decision to give up Libya's weapons of mass destruction programmes, this is another move towards becoming a regular sort of country again.

In typical Gadaffi style though, it's come at a price. The EU's now promising more medical aid and closer political ties to Tripoli, which can only make life better for ordinary Libyans, and therefore make their leader more popular. The canny way he's handled these moves to bring Libya back into the global fold, should make sure Gadaffi stays in power for the foreseeable future.