Friday, June 22, 2007

A Change Is Gonna Come

The US ambassador to Zimbabwe believes the country's economic crisis will drive President Mugabe from office within months, if not weeks. Christopher Dell reckons inflation will hit at least 1,500,000% by the end of the year. The state Zimbabwe is in can be demonstrated by the golfers who pay for drinks before they begin their rounds, knowing the price will have gone up by the time they come off the 18th.

One reason to back up the idea that Mugabe will soon be overthrown, is the apparent division in his Zanu-PF party. A recent alleged coup plot has led to six men appearing in court. If the divisions run as deep as some observers believe, and are replicated in the military, it may well be not too long before some top general or other can't resist it any longer and tries to seize power.

Sadly, there's not much evidence a military government would be any better at running the country and economy than Mugabe's mob. Hopes for a better future for Zimbabwe still rest with the opposition MDC, and its leader Morgan Tsvangirai. If a revolution does happen, it's possible pressure and support from the West, and critically South Africa, could help him into office. Even then, Zimbabwe's economy is in a state of such unimaginable ruins, it'll take a long time to get the place back on its feet.

1 comment:

NewsElephant said...

One would think that the smart strategy for any General staging a coup d'etat in Zimbabwe, would be to appeal to South Africa for aid and for help setting up the kind of reconciliation process that took the sting out of the urge for revenge in the post-Apartheid era. Perhaps that's too naively hopeful.