Burma, Carrots And Sticks

A US Senator has been in Burma for talks with the country's military leaders. Jim Webb has managed to secure the release of an American citizen who was caught swimming across a lake to the home where opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest.

Suu Kyi has been sentenced to another 18 months under arrest because of the whole bizarre affair, which conveniently means she won't be able to participate in elections planned for next year. She easily won the last elections held in the country almost two decades ago, and has been locked up more or less ever since. But despite international pressure and various sanctions, the military leaders in Burma (they insist on calling it Myanmar) haven't had much trouble hanging on to power, even when challenged by protests as they were in 2007. This is largely because the military regime has the support of China, so isn't that bothered about cosying up to the west for anything.

The continued failure of the west's tactics up to this point give leaders in the US, Britain and elsewhere a dilemma. Try engaging more with the hated military rulers, hoping the carrot of trade and tourism will open the country up, or try using a bigger stick consisting of tougher sanctions and weapons embargoes to force the Burmese to make changes? Although the regime has shown some willingness to be a bit more open, notably last year when allowing international aid agencies into the regions affected by a devastating cyclone, there is no sign that the elections next year will be anything other than a farce.

Western leaders are probably best advised to try to get the Chinese to put pressure on the regime bosses, on the basis that at least they might listen to what Beijing has to say. The Burmese certainly don't listen to the UN, even refusing UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon permission to meet Suu Kyi on a recent visit. However, for as long as Burma doesn't become a diplomatic problem for China, by for example trying to build a nuclear bomb like North Korea, it's difficult to see why the Chinese would be particularly interested in trying to bring about a democratic revolution there. That is, after all, what the leaders in Beijing most fear might one day happen in their own country.

Burma's Cyclone

More than 20-thousand people are now known to have died in the cyclone which struck Burma. A further 40-thousand are missing. International aid agencies are doing what they can to assist rescue efforts, but the Burmese military government has been slow to let outsiders into the country.

There seems to be a lot of anger among Burmese people at what has gone on in the last few days. Not just the usual anger and frustration of victims of a natural disaster, although that's often a powerful thing. Rather there's anger at the military government's failure to warn anyone, other than regime officials, that the cyclone was on its way. The government had a good couple of days' notice the cyclone might well land a direct hit, but did nothing to avert this human disaster.

Burmese Buddhists may well be giving plenty of thought to the old legend that, when in times of bad leadership, an angry God sends famine, pestilence and storms as a way of showing displeasure. Just a few months on from the pro-democracy protests, which the regime sent in the army rather more quickly than they have done this week, surely many in the country will now have had enough of incompetent military rule. If and when the regime falls, this will surely prove to have been a pivotal moment.

China's Great Big Olympic Worry

It's difficult to tell what's going to happen next in Myanmar, the country just about everyone still knows as Burma. The bloodshed of the last couple of days has led to an easing of the pro-democracy/anti-regime protests, but they're still continuing, as the demonstrators rightly ask the military rulers for a fairer shake of things.

What does happen next depends largely on China. It's got more influence over the junta in Rangoon than any other country, and is currently annoying other countries at the UN by refusing to back a Security Council statement criticising Burma. With the Olympics less than a year away, China's desperate to avoid a Tiananmen Square style massacre on its borders. That would really bugger up China's hopes of using the Games to show the world what a great place it is. Don't be surprised if behind-the-scenes pressure from the Chinese takes the sting out of the military's response to the protests in Burma. That could also make some kind of process of reconciliation a bit more likely to happen, which would be good for everybody.

Getting Chilly

More evidence that Russia's keen on presenting itself once again as a challenger to the west. Not only has it reportedly stepped up its dispute with Estonia by the means of cyber-sabotage, but it's also going to build a nuclear reactor for the very bad men who run the military government in Myanmar (that's Burma to you and me). If not exactly a second Cold War, things are certainly getting a bit chilly.

Russia's becoming more bullish, you could even say brazen, partly because it holds one big ace - energy. Its oil and gas reserves are going to become more crucial to the rest of Europe in the coming years, and western nations are in no position to take issue with how Russia sometimes behaves politically, if taking a stand would risk turning the lights off and leaving the pumps dry. This growing power allows Vladimir Putin to flex his political muscles here and there, as Russia tries to recover the prestige it gave up during the Yeltsin years. It'll be interesting to see how far Mr Putin wants to push his luck.