The leaders of Israel and the Palestinian Authority have demanded that the other change their position before proper negotiations about a peace deal can take place. Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas were talking separately after a meeting with President Obama in New York on Tuesday, a meeting that appears to have achieved absolutely nothing.
Not that it was expected to. For decades the world has looked to the US President to push things forward in the Israel/Palestine conflict. This is because the US is by far Israel's biggest ally and supporter, and so the US President is just about the only outside person the Israeli government generally listens to. Some presidents have spent more time on this issue than others, but usually most of them at least attempt to make some sort of progress, even George W Bush had his ill-fated 'roadmap' to peace, which sadly proved about as effective as a broken satnav.
Barack Obama may yet devote time and energy to the problem, but he's got plenty of other issues to deal with just now. Healthcare is the main one. There's also Afghanistan. So not much of a look in for Israel/Palestine, and with the hardline Mr Netanyahu telling anyone who'll listen that the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon is by far the most important threat to Israel, there doesn't seem to be much desire from the Israeli side to get down to some serious talking with the Palestinians. As for Mr Abbas, he doesn't speak for Hamas which runs the Gaza Strip, so he can hardly claim to represent the whole Palestinian population. So with the focus of the main players firmly elsewhere, don't expect much progress towards restarting the seemingly never ending 'peace process' for some time yet.
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Friday, February 20, 2009
Netanyahu Returns
Israel's President has asked the leader of the Likud party, Benjamin Netanyahu, to try to form a government. Netanyahu, a former prime minister, now has six weeks to put together a coalition to give him another turn in the job. Although Likud finished one seat behind the Kadima party of outgoing PM Ehud Olmert in the recent elections, the success of other, smaller, right-wing and religious parties ought to allow Mr Netanyahu to make a deal with them to ensure his return to power.
It's quite a turnaround for the veteran politician. The brother of an Israeli military hero who died at Entebbe, Mr Netanyahu first came to global attention during the first Gulf War, when, as Israel's deputy defence secretary, he was a regular sight on TV screens during Iraqi air raids. He took a tough line during his spell as prime minister from 1996 to 1999, and having later rejoined Ariel Sharon's government as finance minister, he quit over the Gaza pullout in 2005. Months later, Mr Netanyahu led the once-mighty Likud party to a humiliating fifth place in the general election of 2006, and it looked as though his political career was finished.
But things have changed since then. The relatively weak premiership of Ehud Olmert, which included the fiasco of the war with Hizbollah in 2006, and the continued firing of Hamas rockets into Israel, has arguably led Israelis to believe they need a strongman at the helm once again.
There's certainly reason to believe any attempts at a peace deal with the Palestinians may make little progress with Mr Netanyahu in power, even if President Obama pushes hard for progress - after all, Bill Clinton's relationship with Netanyahu was notoriously bad during his attempts to move the peace process forward back in the 90s. But if there's someone who'll be taking particular note of Mr Netanyahu's likely return to the premiership, it's Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Benjamin Netanyahu has regularly compared Iran and its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons to Nazi Germany in the 1930s. Expect him to order an Israeli air raid on an Iranian nuclear facility, similar to this one, sooner rather than later.
It's quite a turnaround for the veteran politician. The brother of an Israeli military hero who died at Entebbe, Mr Netanyahu first came to global attention during the first Gulf War, when, as Israel's deputy defence secretary, he was a regular sight on TV screens during Iraqi air raids. He took a tough line during his spell as prime minister from 1996 to 1999, and having later rejoined Ariel Sharon's government as finance minister, he quit over the Gaza pullout in 2005. Months later, Mr Netanyahu led the once-mighty Likud party to a humiliating fifth place in the general election of 2006, and it looked as though his political career was finished.
But things have changed since then. The relatively weak premiership of Ehud Olmert, which included the fiasco of the war with Hizbollah in 2006, and the continued firing of Hamas rockets into Israel, has arguably led Israelis to believe they need a strongman at the helm once again.
There's certainly reason to believe any attempts at a peace deal with the Palestinians may make little progress with Mr Netanyahu in power, even if President Obama pushes hard for progress - after all, Bill Clinton's relationship with Netanyahu was notoriously bad during his attempts to move the peace process forward back in the 90s. But if there's someone who'll be taking particular note of Mr Netanyahu's likely return to the premiership, it's Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Benjamin Netanyahu has regularly compared Iran and its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons to Nazi Germany in the 1930s. Expect him to order an Israeli air raid on an Iranian nuclear facility, similar to this one, sooner rather than later.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Israel Votes
Israelis are voting today in a general election. The polls say it's going to be close between the Kadima party of outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, which is now being led by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and the more right-wing Likud party of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The once-dominant centre-left Labour party, these days under the leadership of Defence Minister (and another former Prime Minister) Ehud Barak, is trailing badly and looks like finishing fourth.
The campaign has unsurprisingly been dominated by the recent conflict in Gaza. Mr Olmert, who said last year he would stand down following various sleaze allegations, ordered Israel's military into Gaza in an attempt to severely damage the Hamas regime, and end the regular firing of rockets at Israeli towns. There were lots of reasons for doing it, but one factor was undoubtedly this election. Just weeks ago, Mr Netanyahu's hardline position had him well clear in the opinion polls. Now, the tough but popular-with-many-Israelis actions of Olmert and Livni in Gaza have helped their Kadima party completely close the gap going into today's vote. It sounds overly cynical to attribute the Israeli attack on Hamas, and the civilian casualties that it caused, solely to electioneering. That's because it is overly cynical. But it's impossible to assess why Israel acted the way it did without taking into account the fact this election was coming up, and many senior figures in the Israeli government were fighting for their political lives.
It actually might not matter too much whether Ms Livni or Mr Netanyahu becomes the new Prime Minister. Either will continue Israel's tough policy towards Hamas - the Israeli people demand nothing less. But either will also have to pay close attention to the policy the new US administration decides to follow in the coming weeks and months. Regardless of the election result, the person with the greatest power to influence the Israel/Palestine question will be Barack Obama.
The campaign has unsurprisingly been dominated by the recent conflict in Gaza. Mr Olmert, who said last year he would stand down following various sleaze allegations, ordered Israel's military into Gaza in an attempt to severely damage the Hamas regime, and end the regular firing of rockets at Israeli towns. There were lots of reasons for doing it, but one factor was undoubtedly this election. Just weeks ago, Mr Netanyahu's hardline position had him well clear in the opinion polls. Now, the tough but popular-with-many-Israelis actions of Olmert and Livni in Gaza have helped their Kadima party completely close the gap going into today's vote. It sounds overly cynical to attribute the Israeli attack on Hamas, and the civilian casualties that it caused, solely to electioneering. That's because it is overly cynical. But it's impossible to assess why Israel acted the way it did without taking into account the fact this election was coming up, and many senior figures in the Israeli government were fighting for their political lives.
It actually might not matter too much whether Ms Livni or Mr Netanyahu becomes the new Prime Minister. Either will continue Israel's tough policy towards Hamas - the Israeli people demand nothing less. But either will also have to pay close attention to the policy the new US administration decides to follow in the coming weeks and months. Regardless of the election result, the person with the greatest power to influence the Israel/Palestine question will be Barack Obama.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Olmert Quits
Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says he's going to step down in September. He's been weakened by a series of corruption allegations, the latest of which surrounds payments allegedly made to him by an American businessman, who says Mr Olmert spent the cash on luxury items.
Although it was the alleged corruption that eventually did for Mr Olmert, he's been in political trouble ever since the disaster of Israel's war against Hizbollah in the summer of 2006. His failure to make a convincing wartime leader, and his failure to keep the country's troops safe from capture made the Israeli people believe he wasn't up to the job of protecting Israel's security. And that was always going to be the real reason behind the end of his premiership.
His likely replacement is the foreign minister, Tzipi Livni. She's a bit of a pragmatist, having helped broker Israel's pullout from Gaza. But any hopes of moving the peace process forward will depend on her early days in office, when she'll be more able to drag the Israeli government and people a bit closer to a proper deal. However, like Mr Olmert she (unusually for Israeli leaders over the years) doesn't have a military record to show off, and if she's unable to reassure the Israeli people she can keep them safe, expect her career to end up going the same way as Mr Olmert's.
Although it was the alleged corruption that eventually did for Mr Olmert, he's been in political trouble ever since the disaster of Israel's war against Hizbollah in the summer of 2006. His failure to make a convincing wartime leader, and his failure to keep the country's troops safe from capture made the Israeli people believe he wasn't up to the job of protecting Israel's security. And that was always going to be the real reason behind the end of his premiership.
His likely replacement is the foreign minister, Tzipi Livni. She's a bit of a pragmatist, having helped broker Israel's pullout from Gaza. But any hopes of moving the peace process forward will depend on her early days in office, when she'll be more able to drag the Israeli government and people a bit closer to a proper deal. However, like Mr Olmert she (unusually for Israeli leaders over the years) doesn't have a military record to show off, and if she's unable to reassure the Israeli people she can keep them safe, expect her career to end up going the same way as Mr Olmert's.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Israel Humiliated By Hizbollah, Again
The bodies of two Israeli soldiers captured by Hizbollah two years ago have been returned to Israel as part of a swap arrangement. In return, Israel handed over the remains of 200 or so Hizbollah and Palestinian fighters, plus five Lebanese prisoners who are still alive. Among those men, the notorious Samir Qantar, who'd been locked up for his role in the deaths of four Israelis during a raid 29 years ago.
Today's a clear diplomatic victory for Hizbollah, and a humiliation for Israel. The capture of the two soldiers (who, it seems, probably died in the incident itself or shortly after) prompted Israel to begin a bloody but brief war against Hizbollah, in which the militants were able to fight the might of the Israeli army to something of a standstill. That was a pretty big trauma for the Israeli nation, as it realised its military was no longer strong enough to simply destroy any threats to its security, as it had done in the past.
The prisoner swap is the final part of that humilitation. Israel's been forced to pay a high price for the return of its two dead soldiers. Hizbollah behaved disgracefully but predictably, by refusing to admit the pair were dead all along, leading to hope they could still be alive - hope that was only finally extinguished for the families today. But Hizbollah's strength on the battlefield and behaviour around the negotiating table helped them to strike a very hard bargain. Because of its military weakness two summers ago, Israel has had to hand over all of the Lebanese prisoners remaining in its jails - effectively buying Hizbollah off in the hope there won't be any further raids on its territory to try to capture soldiers to use as bargaining tools. Now we'll see whether an emboldened Hizbollah tries something more dramatic as it continues its efforts to smash Israel. It's a prospect the Israeli people and politicians must dread.
Today's a clear diplomatic victory for Hizbollah, and a humiliation for Israel. The capture of the two soldiers (who, it seems, probably died in the incident itself or shortly after) prompted Israel to begin a bloody but brief war against Hizbollah, in which the militants were able to fight the might of the Israeli army to something of a standstill. That was a pretty big trauma for the Israeli nation, as it realised its military was no longer strong enough to simply destroy any threats to its security, as it had done in the past.
The prisoner swap is the final part of that humilitation. Israel's been forced to pay a high price for the return of its two dead soldiers. Hizbollah behaved disgracefully but predictably, by refusing to admit the pair were dead all along, leading to hope they could still be alive - hope that was only finally extinguished for the families today. But Hizbollah's strength on the battlefield and behaviour around the negotiating table helped them to strike a very hard bargain. Because of its military weakness two summers ago, Israel has had to hand over all of the Lebanese prisoners remaining in its jails - effectively buying Hizbollah off in the hope there won't be any further raids on its territory to try to capture soldiers to use as bargaining tools. Now we'll see whether an emboldened Hizbollah tries something more dramatic as it continues its efforts to smash Israel. It's a prospect the Israeli people and politicians must dread.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Change Ahead In Israel
Israel's Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, is in deep political trouble. He's just faced a day of damaging testimony by an American businessman relating to an alleged corruption scandal. It seems Mr Olmert, in the days before he became Prime Minister, used to accept tens of thousands of dollars in cash on a fairly regular basis, much of it apparently spent on some of the finer things in life.
So far, so reminiscent of the financial scandal that recently ended Bertie Ahern's time as Taoiseach. But it probably won't be the trail of money that'll cause Mr Olmert's eventual downfall - it'll be the fact he just isn't that popular. Ever since the disastrous war with Hizbollah almost two years ago, he's been judged by the Israeli people as someone who fails the basic test of an Israeli leader - is he strong enough to keep the country secure? With rockets from Hamas strongholds in the Gaza Strip still peppering Israeli territory, for most Israelis the answer to that question is no. Whatever happens with his financial irregularities, Mr Olmert surely won't be Prime Minister after the next election.
The scandal could bring that election forward though, and a familiar figure is poised to benefit. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has led his right-wing Likud party from political humiliation just two years ago to being a strong opposition. His reputation as a political tough guy means he's likely to become Prime Minister after Israelis next go to the polls, as they seek a strongman to protect them from the various threats they face.
Those hoping for progress towards a peaceful solution to the Israel/Palestine crisis might be aghast at the thought of a Prime Minister Netanyahu, but there would be cause to be optimistic with such a man at the helm of Israel. If anyone's going to get the Israeli people to go along with the idea of doing the necessary evils such as talking to Hamas, it's going to be someone like him - someone they believe can look after their interests. An increasingly weak leader like Prime Minister Olmert just doesn't have the authority to do that. Until he's gone, there won't be any progress at all.
So far, so reminiscent of the financial scandal that recently ended Bertie Ahern's time as Taoiseach. But it probably won't be the trail of money that'll cause Mr Olmert's eventual downfall - it'll be the fact he just isn't that popular. Ever since the disastrous war with Hizbollah almost two years ago, he's been judged by the Israeli people as someone who fails the basic test of an Israeli leader - is he strong enough to keep the country secure? With rockets from Hamas strongholds in the Gaza Strip still peppering Israeli territory, for most Israelis the answer to that question is no. Whatever happens with his financial irregularities, Mr Olmert surely won't be Prime Minister after the next election.
The scandal could bring that election forward though, and a familiar figure is poised to benefit. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has led his right-wing Likud party from political humiliation just two years ago to being a strong opposition. His reputation as a political tough guy means he's likely to become Prime Minister after Israelis next go to the polls, as they seek a strongman to protect them from the various threats they face.
Those hoping for progress towards a peaceful solution to the Israel/Palestine crisis might be aghast at the thought of a Prime Minister Netanyahu, but there would be cause to be optimistic with such a man at the helm of Israel. If anyone's going to get the Israeli people to go along with the idea of doing the necessary evils such as talking to Hamas, it's going to be someone like him - someone they believe can look after their interests. An increasingly weak leader like Prime Minister Olmert just doesn't have the authority to do that. Until he's gone, there won't be any progress at all.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Mossad's Return To Form
One of the world's most notorious terrorists, Imad Mughniyeh of the Islamic paramilitary group Hizbollah, has died in a car bombing in the Syrian capital Damascus. Israel and the US say they've got no idea who was behind the assassination, but both are lying. It's surely the work of the Israeli security service Mossad.
Mughniyeh's name wasn't nearly as well-known as those of other international super-terrorists of his ilk, such as Carlos the Jackal or Abu Nidal. That low profile is probably why he was able to stay on the run for so long. Back in the 1980s he was just about America's most wanted. Blamed for bomb attacks in Beirut in 1983 which left hundreds of American service personnel and others dead, it's thought he was also one of the hijackers of TWA Flight 847 two years later. He'd spent the last two decades lying low, but undoubtedly still one of the most senior members of Hizbollah.
Killing him now is a valuable coup for Mossad and the Israeli government, which badly needed it. In the summer of 2006, Hizbollah fought the might of the Israeli army to a standstill in a month-long war in southern Lebanon. It was a crushing blow for Israel's sense of security, and tarnished the almost mystical reputation for efficiency built up over the years by the Israeli military and Mossad. With security by far the most important thing for the Israeli people, and with that so obviously defied by Hizbollah, Israel's been an uneasy place ever since. Several political scandals have affected senior figures in the government. Therefore, Mossad's assassination of Imad Mughniyeh happens at an opportune time. This sign of its return to past successes will reassure both Israeli politicians and its people, that they are safe from their enemies.
Mughniyeh's name wasn't nearly as well-known as those of other international super-terrorists of his ilk, such as Carlos the Jackal or Abu Nidal. That low profile is probably why he was able to stay on the run for so long. Back in the 1980s he was just about America's most wanted. Blamed for bomb attacks in Beirut in 1983 which left hundreds of American service personnel and others dead, it's thought he was also one of the hijackers of TWA Flight 847 two years later. He'd spent the last two decades lying low, but undoubtedly still one of the most senior members of Hizbollah.
Killing him now is a valuable coup for Mossad and the Israeli government, which badly needed it. In the summer of 2006, Hizbollah fought the might of the Israeli army to a standstill in a month-long war in southern Lebanon. It was a crushing blow for Israel's sense of security, and tarnished the almost mystical reputation for efficiency built up over the years by the Israeli military and Mossad. With security by far the most important thing for the Israeli people, and with that so obviously defied by Hizbollah, Israel's been an uneasy place ever since. Several political scandals have affected senior figures in the government. Therefore, Mossad's assassination of Imad Mughniyeh happens at an opportune time. This sign of its return to past successes will reassure both Israeli politicians and its people, that they are safe from their enemies.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Talks About Talks
It's a sort-of important week for the Middle East. The Israeli and Palestinian leaders are among various interested folk invited to Annapolis for US-hosted talks aimed at reviving the peace process. Even Syria agreed at the last minute to turn up, although its decision to only send its deputy foreign minister demonstrates how little Damascus cares about the summit.
The changing attitude of President Bush is one main reason why these talks are happening. As with many presidents before him, not least Bill Clinton, he's turning his attention abroad in the final months of his time in office, in a bid to create something positive to remember him by. With Iraq likely to dominate any assessment of Mr Bush, he's going to have to produce something extremely special to knock that from the opening paragraph of his obituary. It's not entirely fair to say Bush has never taken much interest in the Israel/Palestine question - he's gone further than Clinton ever did in calling for a sovereign Palestinian state - but there's no doubt the last seven years have been pretty bleak for everyone involved.
Nothing much is going to improve at Annapolis. These really are talks about talks - a good outcome would be if everyone can agree the terms of future negotiations, and fix a date for those to take place. Only then can the big questions that generations of politicians have failed to solve - land-for-peace, security, Jerusalem - be put back on the agenda.
The changing attitude of President Bush is one main reason why these talks are happening. As with many presidents before him, not least Bill Clinton, he's turning his attention abroad in the final months of his time in office, in a bid to create something positive to remember him by. With Iraq likely to dominate any assessment of Mr Bush, he's going to have to produce something extremely special to knock that from the opening paragraph of his obituary. It's not entirely fair to say Bush has never taken much interest in the Israel/Palestine question - he's gone further than Clinton ever did in calling for a sovereign Palestinian state - but there's no doubt the last seven years have been pretty bleak for everyone involved.
Nothing much is going to improve at Annapolis. These really are talks about talks - a good outcome would be if everyone can agree the terms of future negotiations, and fix a date for those to take place. Only then can the big questions that generations of politicians have failed to solve - land-for-peace, security, Jerusalem - be put back on the agenda.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
Talking About Talking
Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has held talks with the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. For the first time, they met in the West Bank, and Mr Olmert said he wanted negotiations on a Palestinian state to resume soon.
That's fine and dandy, but there's absolutely no reason to get excited about this at all. In the slightest. Scarcely in the modern history of the Middle East can two leaders in weaker positions have held such a meeting. Mr Olmert's under pressure from just about everybody at home, over issues such as how last summer's war with Hizbollah came about, and even the treatment of holocaust victims. Mr Abbas has to meet people in the West Bank these days, because he can't go to Gaza since Hamas routed his Fatah party in a bloody but brief civil war. It's clear both men don't have a great deal of sway over their people right now.
When two leaders in the Middle East, or indeed anywhere, hold some talks to say they're going to hold some more talks, it's not exactly Earth-shattering news at the best of times. When those two leaders are Messrs Olmert and Abbas, it's fair to say the talking's not going to turn into anything more substantial anytime soon.
That's fine and dandy, but there's absolutely no reason to get excited about this at all. In the slightest. Scarcely in the modern history of the Middle East can two leaders in weaker positions have held such a meeting. Mr Olmert's under pressure from just about everybody at home, over issues such as how last summer's war with Hizbollah came about, and even the treatment of holocaust victims. Mr Abbas has to meet people in the West Bank these days, because he can't go to Gaza since Hamas routed his Fatah party in a bloody but brief civil war. It's clear both men don't have a great deal of sway over their people right now.
When two leaders in the Middle East, or indeed anywhere, hold some talks to say they're going to hold some more talks, it's not exactly Earth-shattering news at the best of times. When those two leaders are Messrs Olmert and Abbas, it's fair to say the talking's not going to turn into anything more substantial anytime soon.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Victory For Hamas
The Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, has tonight declared a state of emergency in the Palestinian territories. It's after another day of devastating violence in Gaza, when Fatah forces loyal to him took another fearful pounding from Hamas fighters. They now have just about total control of Gaza. Mr Abbas has also dissolved the laughably described 'unity' government the two factions have tried unsuccessfully to make work, and is hinting at new elections once things have calmed down.
It's difficult to see how things could have gone much better for Hamas over the last couple of days. After Fatah prevented them taking the sort of control over Gaza they felt they had earned through their victory in last year's elections, it wasn't surprising when that frustration spilled over into serious violence. Hamas have won a swift and dramatic military victory over their rivals, despite the tacit support being given to Fatah by Israel and the US. When those new elections roll round, Hamas will surely do even better than last time. Although they'll have to indulge Fatah and the West (who won't speak to Hamas because they don't recognise Israel's right to exist) and attempt some form of coalition, it'll be firmly on their terms this time.
Eventually, Israel, the US and the rest will all have to talk to Hamas. That day may be years away, but more election success for Hamas must surely bring it closer. Hamas now almost totally controls Gaza on the ground, and if in future elections Hamas can demonstrate it has the overwhelming support of all Palestinian people, the only way of getting nearer a wider peace deal involves getting round the table with them. Although it would be a brave Israeli leader who would do that, Hamas stands a much better chance than the beleagured President Abbas and his Fatah cronies of maintaining the support of the Palsetinian people in any peace process. The events of the last few days may end up being good not just for Hamas, but for everyone in the Middle East.
It's difficult to see how things could have gone much better for Hamas over the last couple of days. After Fatah prevented them taking the sort of control over Gaza they felt they had earned through their victory in last year's elections, it wasn't surprising when that frustration spilled over into serious violence. Hamas have won a swift and dramatic military victory over their rivals, despite the tacit support being given to Fatah by Israel and the US. When those new elections roll round, Hamas will surely do even better than last time. Although they'll have to indulge Fatah and the West (who won't speak to Hamas because they don't recognise Israel's right to exist) and attempt some form of coalition, it'll be firmly on their terms this time.
Eventually, Israel, the US and the rest will all have to talk to Hamas. That day may be years away, but more election success for Hamas must surely bring it closer. Hamas now almost totally controls Gaza on the ground, and if in future elections Hamas can demonstrate it has the overwhelming support of all Palestinian people, the only way of getting nearer a wider peace deal involves getting round the table with them. Although it would be a brave Israeli leader who would do that, Hamas stands a much better chance than the beleagured President Abbas and his Fatah cronies of maintaining the support of the Palsetinian people in any peace process. The events of the last few days may end up being good not just for Hamas, but for everyone in the Middle East.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Barak Is Back
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak is storming back onto the political scene. He faces a run-off for the leadership of his Labour party with Ami Ayalon, after they both beat current leader and defence minister Amir Peretz in an election. The final vote between the two main contenders takes place on June 12, with both promising to take the party out of the coalition government unless Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is replaced.
Mr Peretz has paid the price for trying to make up for his lack of personal military experience and his reputation as a centre-left dovish sort of leader, by trying to act the tough guy. Last summer's war with Hizbollah was as much his conflict as anyone else's. Had it gone well, he would have proved he could be trusted with defending Israel, always the most important thing for any politician there to do. But it didn't go well at all, so it's political curtains for him.
His two rivals, in common with most Israeli leaders of the past, both have strong security records to fall back on. Mr Barak is highly-decorated military man who famously dressed as a woman to kill Palestinian terrorists, while Mr Ayalon used to run the internal security service. If the winner carries out his threat to quit the government, more political turmoil and possibly new elections lie ahead. With the Likud party of a more extreme ex-PM, Binyamin Netanyahu, doing well in the polls, Israel looks set for a lurch to the right. The dream that Mr Olmert and Ariel Sharon could lead their (somewhat) centrist Kadima party to a peace deal acceptable to the whole Israeli nation has faded all too quickly.
Mr Peretz has paid the price for trying to make up for his lack of personal military experience and his reputation as a centre-left dovish sort of leader, by trying to act the tough guy. Last summer's war with Hizbollah was as much his conflict as anyone else's. Had it gone well, he would have proved he could be trusted with defending Israel, always the most important thing for any politician there to do. But it didn't go well at all, so it's political curtains for him.
His two rivals, in common with most Israeli leaders of the past, both have strong security records to fall back on. Mr Barak is highly-decorated military man who famously dressed as a woman to kill Palestinian terrorists, while Mr Ayalon used to run the internal security service. If the winner carries out his threat to quit the government, more political turmoil and possibly new elections lie ahead. With the Likud party of a more extreme ex-PM, Binyamin Netanyahu, doing well in the polls, Israel looks set for a lurch to the right. The dream that Mr Olmert and Ariel Sharon could lead their (somewhat) centrist Kadima party to a peace deal acceptable to the whole Israeli nation has faded all too quickly.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Olmert On The Brink
Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is facing overwhelming pressure to resign, after a report into last summer's war with Hizbollah made some pretty serious criticisms of him. Defence minister Amir Peretz seems extremely likely to quit, and although Mr Olmert is sounding defiant, it looks like he's going to have to go as well.
This is what the two men get for trying to prove how tough they are. Ehud Olmert's a rarity in an Israeli leader, in that he doesn't have a high-profile military career behind him. His two immediate predecessors, Ariel Sharon and Ehud Barak, are among Israel's greatest military heroes. Both he and the traditionally dovish Mr Peretz, the leader of Israel's Labour party, were clearly keen to pick a fight with Hizbollah to demonstrate they could be trusted as strong defenders of Israel. The war failed to achieve any of its aims, and with Israel's captured soldiers still not returned, and Hizbollah apparently fully re-armed, it's no surprise Olmert and Peretz are on the brink of paying with their political careers.
This is what the two men get for trying to prove how tough they are. Ehud Olmert's a rarity in an Israeli leader, in that he doesn't have a high-profile military career behind him. His two immediate predecessors, Ariel Sharon and Ehud Barak, are among Israel's greatest military heroes. Both he and the traditionally dovish Mr Peretz, the leader of Israel's Labour party, were clearly keen to pick a fight with Hizbollah to demonstrate they could be trusted as strong defenders of Israel. The war failed to achieve any of its aims, and with Israel's captured soldiers still not returned, and Hizbollah apparently fully re-armed, it's no surprise Olmert and Peretz are on the brink of paying with their political careers.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Talking Tough
Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has given a predictably tough response to the new Palestinian government, which features power-sharing between the rival Hamas and Fatah groups. He, as well as the US, have picked up on the part of the administration's platform that talks about resistance against Israel "in all its forms." Discussions about a Palestinian state are off the table until that line softens.
It's typical of the stern posturing we've seen from Mr Olmert since he became Prime Minister, when Ariel Sharon slipped into a coma. After a succession of Israeli leaders (such as Sharon) with strong military records, he feels like he needs to constantly prove what a robust figurehead he is, as if to make up for his lack of real fighting experience. He may yet even be forced to resign amid claims he and his similarly dovish defence secretary Amir Peretz actually cooked up the plan for last summer's war against Hizbollah months in advance.
Talking tough may keep Mr Olmert popular enough with the Israeli public to stay in power in the short-term, but it'll do nothing for the chances of long-term peace.
It's typical of the stern posturing we've seen from Mr Olmert since he became Prime Minister, when Ariel Sharon slipped into a coma. After a succession of Israeli leaders (such as Sharon) with strong military records, he feels like he needs to constantly prove what a robust figurehead he is, as if to make up for his lack of real fighting experience. He may yet even be forced to resign amid claims he and his similarly dovish defence secretary Amir Peretz actually cooked up the plan for last summer's war against Hizbollah months in advance.
Talking tough may keep Mr Olmert popular enough with the Israeli public to stay in power in the short-term, but it'll do nothing for the chances of long-term peace.
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