No Closer To A Deal In Cyprus

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has arrived in Cyprus, as he attempts to put new life into efforts to solve one of Europe's longest-running disputes. The latest round of peace talks have been taking place for more than a year, but the problems which have split the island in two go back decades.

To sum it up briefly, Cyprus used to be part of the Ottoman Empire (now Turkey), until it became part of the British Empire. Most of the people in Cyprus are Greek, and during the 1950s an insurgency aimed at overthrowing British rule and uniting Cyprus with Greece took place, ending in a deal which led to Cyprus becoming independent, something neither the Greeks nor the Turks especially wanted. Later, as the Turkish government began to worry that Greece was moving to bring Cyprus under its control, it invaded the north of the country, where most of the Turks lived. That was 36 years ago, and all that time there have been two Cypruses, the Greek in the south and the Turkish in the north, and that hasn't made anyone particularly happy, either.

There have been various attempts to thrash out some kind of better deal since, but all have failed. This latest round of talks had seemed more likely to succeed than most, not least because the political leaders of both communities in Cyprus seemed keen on it. But enough members of their electorates are not for keen for the talks to be fraught with political risk, and the Turkish-Cypriot leader seems likely to lose an election in April to a hardliner. So if there's going to be progress, it needs to be in the next few weeks, which is why Mr Ban is in town. But he's no miracle-worker, the chances of a significant breakthrough remain very remote.

It's Not Just About The Pirates

Somalia has been in the news a lot over the past couple of years, almost entirely to do with the pirates which have left its coast to attack ships in the Red Sea. Both people and vessels have been held to big ransoms, and the continued lack of a central government worthy of the name in Somalia means that successful pirates have been able to go back home and live high on the hog courtesy of their ill-gotten gains.

But all of this has obscured Somalia's other problems, which will be familiar to anyone who's taken even a passing interest in the country at any point over the last couple of decades. A battle for control of Somalia's territory is raging between a group of Islamist fighters called al Shabaab, and the would-be government which is represented by African Union forces. Stuck somewhere in the middle, hopelessly outgunned as always, is the UN

Yesterday's escalation in the trouble came in Baidoa, in the south of the country and traditionally one of the more stable areas. After saying they'd force the UN out of Somalia, some al Shabaab fighters attacked and looted a couple of UN compounds. As a result, the UN has got out of Baidoa, with the staff legging it to Kenya. Al Shabaab has warned anyone else trying to carry out aid work in the area to contact them first, and they'll be told what they can and can't do.

This is Al Shabaab demonstrating to the UN, the would-be Somali government in the capital Mogadishu, and anyone else who's interested, just how powerful they are. In the areas they control, they can do whatever they want. Al Shabaab's aim is to conquer the whole country and reintroduce the kind of hardline Islamist government last seen during the brief rule of the Union of Islamic Courts back in 2006. The UIC sounded rather too much like the Taliban for the liking of the US and other western countries, and they supported Ethiopian troops who were used to drive the UIC out. If Al Shabaab continues to advance, expect the US and others to consider something similar.

Annan Tries To Make Amends

Former UN secretary general Kofi Annan is in Kenya, leading efforts to find a peaceful solution to the political crisis that's led to tribal violence in the country. He's stepped in to begin mediation between President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga, following the disputed results of last month's election. As well he might.

Mr Annan - the first African to lead the UN - has quite a debt to work off in this area. Many commentators in recent weeks have talked darkly about how the Kenya situation could turn into something similar to the crisis that ended in bloody genocide and the deaths of almost a million people in Rwanda 14 years ago. Back then, the head of UN peacekeeping in New York ignored repeated warnings from the Canadian general on the ground about how bad the situation was getting. The UN and the world then looked on aghast as the slaughter began. That senior UN official was none other than Kofi Annan, and rather than being punished for his gross negligence, he ended up getting the top job in the organisation. We all need him to do a better job this time.

China's Great Big Olympic Worry

It's difficult to tell what's going to happen next in Myanmar, the country just about everyone still knows as Burma. The bloodshed of the last couple of days has led to an easing of the pro-democracy/anti-regime protests, but they're still continuing, as the demonstrators rightly ask the military rulers for a fairer shake of things.

What does happen next depends largely on China. It's got more influence over the junta in Rangoon than any other country, and is currently annoying other countries at the UN by refusing to back a Security Council statement criticising Burma. With the Olympics less than a year away, China's desperate to avoid a Tiananmen Square style massacre on its borders. That would really bugger up China's hopes of using the Games to show the world what a great place it is. Don't be surprised if behind-the-scenes pressure from the Chinese takes the sting out of the military's response to the protests in Burma. That could also make some kind of process of reconciliation a bit more likely to happen, which would be good for everybody.

"We Have Not Asked For Iran's Help"

The radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has given an interesting and rare interview to the Independent, in which he denies claims Iran has been arming and helping his private militia army in its battle against the British and Americans in Iraq. He also tells the paper his Mehdi Army has played "an important role" in forcing British commanders to realise it's a war they can't win.

It's difficult to believe his denials about Iran. Although it's certainly in Washington's interests to try to paint the Iranians as among the villains in Iraq, there seems to be compelling evidence that elements within Iran are helping the Mehdi Army and others build the bombs that regularly kill and maim US and British soldiers.

But al-Sadr has two other interesting things to say, that could point to a better future for Iraq. First, he seems to suggest al Qaeda is as much an enemy of his group as the US. He says those Shias who've stood against the terror network in Ramadi have "written their names into our history books." Any hopes al Qaeda might have to turn Iraq into the sort of haven it used to enjoy in Afghanistan therefore seem far-fetched.

Then there's his remarks on the UN, saying: "if the UN comes here to truly help the Iraqi people, they will receive our help in their work." Whatever happens in Iraq once the Americans and British have gone home, a much bigger role for the UN is clearly essential.

It's Only Words

Sudan is describing the UN agreement on a peacekeeping force for Darfur as a "practical" solution. After lots of talking, and lots of watering down under pressure from Sudan's trading partner China, the UN Security Council finally passed a resolution agreeing a joint African Union/UN force of around 26,000 personnel. They're going to have the power to use force to defend civilians and aid workers - but there's no threat of sanctions if Sudan doesn't go along with things.

And that's the key point here. Although Gordon Brown, whose interest in this issue is admirable, is warning the Sudanese the clunking fist of tough sanctions remains an option, it's not written anywhere in the resolution. No wonder Khartoum seems pretty pleased.

Working on the assumption that anything Sudan welcomes is not likely to be good for the people of Darfur, this resolution is nowhere near strong enough. We've heard promises of a bolstered international force for Darfur before, and nothing's ever come of it. This latest plan, as grand as it might seem, remains just a plan until those first boots hit the ground. Don't be surprised if it doesn't happen.

An Ugly Compromise

At the UN, Britain and France have circulated a watered-down draft of a resolution to authorise a joint African Union-UN peacekeeping force for Darfur. The watering down involves dropping the threat of sanctions against Sudan, if it doesn't let the troops in. It's because other African countries weren't happy with that.

Sudan claims the new draft is still "very ugly" but the only thing ugly about it, is the extent to which the major western countries have backed down. The rest of the world's been pressing Sudan to accept a proper peacekeeping force in Darfur for yonks, and despite various agreements and promises, still nothing. Besides, with hundreds of thousands dead and millions left homeless, the idea that there's actually any peace to keep is pretty laughable. The big western powers should fund and equip a much more powerful African Union force, and send it in regardless of what Sudan says.

No Strings Attached

The UN's making some hopeful noises about the Darfur crisis, after Sudan said it would accept a combined UN/African Union peacekeeping force of around 20,000 personnel. After months of negotiations, it's even claimed the Sudanese aren't insisting on any conditions, such as insisting all the troops come from African countries.

We've got to hope this time the agreement is actually for real, but until those boots are actually on the ground, there's no reason to expect Sudan's not just playing more games. It's time for the UN and major world leaders to set a deadline for the peacekeepers to be deployed, and if that's missed, for genuinely tough sanctions against the Sudanese government. We've heard this sort of thing from Sudan too many times before over the last four years of this crisis, to do anything less.

Aiming To Get Out

Ethiopia's Prime Minister says he wants all his troops out of Somalia soon. Ethiopia's been involved in months of fighting there, backing a Transitional Government that's been trying to establish itself after the Ethiopians helped overthrow a Taliban-style Islamic group last year. There's been a fierce insurgency ever since, although things seem to have calmed down just a bit now.

Ethiopia's presence isn't exactly popular in Somalia, but it would be a total disaster if their forces withdrew now. Its relatively strong military is the only thing that currently offers hope of some kind of more stable future for Somalia. While the Ethiopian PM is right to say it would be better if African Union peacekeepers were able to take over and relieve his men, that isn't happening yet. That Ethiopian-induced stability is also important if the UN and aid agencies are going to be able to do anything about all the refugees currently milling about the country (the UN now says it's a worse displacement crisis than Darfur). Before getting out, Ethiopia must make sure it finishes the job.

A Deal, At Last

Better news from Belgrade, where parties have finally agreed a coalition deal more than three months after Serbia's general election. The really good bit is that the agreement keeps out the largest party in the parliament, the ultra-nationalist Radicals. Their Milosevic-style rhetoric and firm opposition to an independent Kosovo had caused plenty of people around the world to wonder whether Serbia might go back to the bad old days of the 1990s.

Within a couple of hours of the agreement being announced, the draft resolution on Kosovo was circulated at the UN. Despite grumblings from Russia, the political deal in Belgrade makes it a lot more likely we'll see an independent Kosovo fairly soon. It also means joining the EU is back on the cards for the Serbs, with what they call pre-membership talks certain to restart once the new government's in place.

Serbia's mainstream politicians have proved with this agreement they can turn their backs on the old ways. But they, the EU, the UN, and everyone else, must do a better job of convincing the Serb public of the way forward. The rise of the Radicals proves many are still inclined to flirt with the worst kind of nationalism.

Endgame

The US and European countries intend to circulate a draft resolution at the UN, that would give independence to Kosovo. The province of Serbia's basically been run by the UN since NATO's 1999 war, prompted by the then Serb regime's policy of driving out ethnic Albanians. It looks as if Serbian politicians will have to admit defeat in their efforts to keep Kosovo part of their country.

Or maybe not just yet. Russia's still hinting it might veto the plan, as it can do because it's one of the permanent five members of the UN Security Council. You might wonder why Russia still bothers trying to back up its old allies in Belgrade, but there's a clear parallel between the recent rise of national feeling in both countries. Russia's Vladimir Putin's trying very hard to extend his influence over just about anyone who'll give him the time of day, and countries that have been friendly to Moscow in the past are proving easier to win over. The successes of hardline politicians in Serbia, at times echoing the bad old days of Milosevic, proves Serb nationalism didn't die when he did. The UN, the US and Europe must avoid forcing Kosovo into independence any earlier than is absolutely necessary, or the Balkans may again prove to be the source of big trouble.

"A Week Or Two"

It's the eighth day in a row of heavy fighting in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. On the one side we've got the interim government, backed by Ethiopian military power (oddly enough, they're the good guys in this one). On the other, Islamic rebels loyal to the ousted Taliban-style regime who spent a few months ruling the country last year (the bad guys). Hundreds of people have been killed in this latest outbreak of fighting, and the UN reckons around 300,000 civilians have been forced to leave Mogadishu recently.

The Ethiopian Prime Minister said yesterday it would only take "a week or two" to clear Mogadishu of the remaining rebels. We've heard this sort of thing ever since the Ethiopians kicked the Islamic regime out of Mogadishu back in December, but still the fighting continues. Hopefully he's right though, and the Somali-Ethiopian force will be powerful enough to not only install the interim government, but keep it firmly in place. The chances of a stable administration taking hold in Mogadishu for the first time in 16 years rest on the strength of the Ethiopian Army.

The timing of "a week or two" is even more important for all those refugees. The phrase 'humanitarian crisis' is so overused it seems fatuous to roll it out again, but there's no getting away from the fact there is going to be one unless the fighting stops soonish. After striking a deal with the both sides, the UN's managing to get some help to the homeless and hungry. But that won't be nearly enough. The refugees need a quick and decisive Ethiopian victory just as much as the politicians of the interim government.

An Escalation

Oh dear. It looks as though the armies of Chad and Sudan have fought directly for the first time, in a remote bit of Sudan's western province of Darfur. The two governments have been accusing each other for quite a while of backing rebel forces in the other's country, and it seems this inevitable escalation has finally happened. Some people already refer to what's going on as the Central African War, and that seems a more accurate description as each month goes by.

The main immediate hope that things might get better is embodied by the not-always-particularly-effective UN. They've been trying to get into Darfur for ages to try to deal with the enormous humanitarian disaster, but the Sudanese government won't let them, because it's they who've pretty much caused it all. The African Union does have some people on the ground, but not enough, although it does claim it's close to finally getting Sudan to let those UN troops (somewhat laughably billed as 'peacekeepers') in to join them.

China is Sudan's biggest economic supporter, and has frustrated efforts at the UN to sort things out more quickly. But the focus on Beijing's attitude only hides the fact the eventual solution here will be an African solution. The African Union is clearly not strong enough on its own yet to do much to bring it about, so it's up to South Africa's Thabo Mbeki and others to apply more of a squeeze on Sudan, before fighting between Chad and Sudan starts to happen every day.

No-Fly Zone

The Guardian reports that Tony Blair is pushing for a no-fly zone to be introduced in Darfur. The PM would want it enforced, if necessary, by bombing Sudanese airfields. The idea seems to be based on what the French did in the Ivory Coast back in 2004, when they destroyed the Ivorian air force in retaliation for the deaths of nine French peacekeepers.

This looks like a bit of theatre from Blair. There's no appetite in the military to actually get involved in Darfur, not with what's already going on in Afghanistan and Iraq. Sudan's allies in China would probably prevent anything like this getting through the UN anyway. But with the Sudanese government still stalling on letting UN troops into Darfur, Blair probably reasons the mere mention of military action might be enough to force them to change their tune. It probably won't work, but it's worth a try.

"The Only Viable Option"

The UN's man in Kosovo, ex-Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, has delivered a report to the Security Council saying the territory should become an independent country. Kosovo, a part of Serbia that's full of Albanians, has been run by the UN since the war in 1999. The plans would give it an internationally-supervised sovereignty. If all's well, Kosovo would get full independence after that. The Kosovo Albanians are happy enough with this. What actually happens next is up to Serbia and its old ally Russia.

Kosovo has a near-mythical place in Serb history as a cradle of Serb nationalism, and they desperately don't want to let it go. In 1989, Slobodan Milosevic's blood-and-thunder rhetoric on the anniversary of the 1389 Battle of Kosovo helped stoke anti-Muslim feeling among Serbs, which eventually led to the collapse of Yugoslavia and the wars of the mid-nineties. Later, he tried to kick all the Albanians out of Kosovo, which led to the war with NATO, which ironically looks like guaranteeing that Kosovo won't be part of Serbia anymore.

Losing Kosovo would make any Serb politician very unpopular indeed, especially as most of them were recently re-elected because of their firm opposition to exactly that. But the Serb politicians also know there's little chance of doing all the things needed to make their country better again (such as starting talks on EU entry) unless the Kosovo problem is sorted out. They're trying to stall things as long as they can, in the hope the UN agrees to an autonomous Kosovo that stops short of full independence.

This is where the Russians come in. They're already calling for more talks, and by threatening to wield their veto in the Security Council, they might make sure that happens. The Russians are doing this partly because they feel a sense of allegiance to their old friends in Belgrade, but mainly because President Putin is set on trying to keep Russia's sphere of influence in place. It's another example of the Kremlin setting itself up as a challenger to the west, rather than a friend.

The Battle For Mogadishu

A little over a week after Somalia's Transitional Federal Government moved to the capital Mogadishu, there's been the heaviest fighting so far as it tries to stamp its authority on the country. TFG forces backed by Ethiopia are battling rebels loyal to the ousted Union of Islamic Courts.

Ethiopian military power was enough to drive the UIC out and put the TFG in power, but it won't be enough to keep them there. The real power in Mogadishu is still divided between the various clan leaders who've been prominent over the last 16 years of anarchy. The most powerful of those clans, the Hawiye, is now threatening to join the fight against the TFG. It's not happy with the role of Ethiopian forces in Somalia in recent months, as well as the Ugandans sent in by the African Union. The Hawiye seem to want some kind of UN force instead, but that can't be allowed to happen. The only solution to the Somalia problem will be an African one, and it's vital the TFG keeps the Hawiye and others onside, to allow it to happen.

Losing Patience

The pressure's growing on Sudan to let an international peacekeeping force into its Darfur province, which has been devastated by mass slaughter over the last four years. The US, Britain and others are talking about extending sanctions and other measures including a no-fly zone, if Sudan continues to refuse to let the UN troops in.

Although Sudan will probably try to delay things a bit longer, it looks like the force will finally get on the ground sooner rather than later. The arrival of the troops won't guarantee the violence will finish, but it should mean the end of large-scale systematic killing. That should also prevent the fighting from spreading further into neighbouring Chad and the Central African Republic. But all of that will be just a preamble to the really important stuff - peace talks.

Last year's attempt at an agreement failed because not all the various factions in Darfur were on board. Once the UN's allowed in to make things a bit more stable though, discussions with a genuine chance of success should be possible. If the US, Britain and others are going to beat the Sudanese government with the stick of sanctions, they need to offer all sides the carrot of talks too. Otherwise not only will there be no chance of a deal, there'll be no chance of stopping the killing either.