One of the most popular figures in Croatia, Ante Gotovina, has been jailed for 24 years for war crimes carried out against the Serbs during the end of the Balkan War in 1995. Another man got 18 years, while a third was cleared, following an international trial in The Hague.
The Gotovina case has been a prickly one for successive Croatian governments. As the man who led the Croat Army to a series of victories over the Serbs in the summer of 1995, as the Serbs were themselves under pressure from belated international air strikes, he was and is something of a national hero. But hundreds of Serb civilians died during that campaign, as they were forced by the Croats from the Krajina region, traditionally a Serb enclave (the word Krajina means frontier).
And it's offences relating to that which have landed Gotovina in prison after all these years. But the real reason is much larger. Croatia wants to join the EU, and soon, like its neighbour Slovenia did back in 2004. Failing to finish the unfinished business of the war was a major sticking point preventing that happening.
If it weren't for the prospect of EU membership, Gotovina would surely still be at large. But that carrot has proved too strong for the Croatian government to resist, even if it means temporary unpopularity among many Croat citizens. Perhaps one day, something similar will help the Serbs bring Ratko Mladic and others to justice.
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Friday, April 15, 2011
Saturday, November 21, 2009
A Bit Of Rompuy Pumpy
We now know who the EU's first president is going to be. It's Belgium's Prime Minister, Herman Van Rompuy. There's also going to be a new EU foreign policy chief, in the form of Britain's Cathy Ashton. Better-known candidates for the top job, such as Tony Blair, faded out of contention as the EU's 27 leaders got together to decide who should get the positions.
These jobs have been created as part of the Lisbon Treaty, which has now been ratified by all 27 member countries. The idea of them is to help the EU interact in a more effective way with the rest of the world. In future, instead of a mishmash of different signals from the various national leaders, we should all get a clearer idea of what the EU's view on a particular topic is, whether that's trade or a humanitarian intervention. Or at least that's how it's supposed to work.
But you'll notice that neither Mr Van Rompuy or Baroness Ashton are household names. Mr Van Rompuy wasn't even elected Belgian Prime Minister, he was appointed by the king to try to solve a constitutional crisis. For her part, Baroness Ashton has never been elected to anything, and until today was not even the most famous person in her family (her husband is the YouGov pollster Peter Kellner).
On the face of it, it does appear strange that the EU should select such little-known political figures to be its leaders. It's hardly going to impress the Americans, the Chinese or anyone else. But the main reason is simple, the leaders of the different countries don't want to give up any of their power if they can avoid it. A high-profile figure such as Mr Blair would have quickly dominated the EU's international activities, using his contacts in foreign capitals to take control of the union's external policy. Mr Van Rompuy and Baroness Ashton are much more likely to do what they're told, particularly by the leaders of France and Germany, who blocked Mr Blair's candidacy. Expect EU foreign policy to be set primarily in Paris and Berlin, rather than Brussels.
These jobs have been created as part of the Lisbon Treaty, which has now been ratified by all 27 member countries. The idea of them is to help the EU interact in a more effective way with the rest of the world. In future, instead of a mishmash of different signals from the various national leaders, we should all get a clearer idea of what the EU's view on a particular topic is, whether that's trade or a humanitarian intervention. Or at least that's how it's supposed to work.
But you'll notice that neither Mr Van Rompuy or Baroness Ashton are household names. Mr Van Rompuy wasn't even elected Belgian Prime Minister, he was appointed by the king to try to solve a constitutional crisis. For her part, Baroness Ashton has never been elected to anything, and until today was not even the most famous person in her family (her husband is the YouGov pollster Peter Kellner).
On the face of it, it does appear strange that the EU should select such little-known political figures to be its leaders. It's hardly going to impress the Americans, the Chinese or anyone else. But the main reason is simple, the leaders of the different countries don't want to give up any of their power if they can avoid it. A high-profile figure such as Mr Blair would have quickly dominated the EU's international activities, using his contacts in foreign capitals to take control of the union's external policy. Mr Van Rompuy and Baroness Ashton are much more likely to do what they're told, particularly by the leaders of France and Germany, who blocked Mr Blair's candidacy. Expect EU foreign policy to be set primarily in Paris and Berlin, rather than Brussels.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Football Diplomacy Helps Turkey And Armenia Move On
The presidents of Turkey and Armenia will tonight attend a World Cup qualifying match between the countries. Nothing unusual about that on the face of it, until you consider the bitterness which has existed between the two peoples since hundreds of thousands of Armenians were killed by Turkey's predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, during and just after the First World War. Whether or not the killings can be called a genocide is one of many contentious issues which is still unresolved, but the good news is that both nations are at last moving forward politically.
A deal was recently agreed so Turkey and Armenia could finally establish diplomatic ties, and allowing the border between the countries to be re-opened. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was there to witness the signing of the accord, and no wonder, because the surprisingly large Armenian population of her own country (the Armenian diaspora is one of the world's most widely spread, partly because of the killings) has put plenty of pressure on Congress and forced the issue onto her agenda. Although many Armenians around the world were bitterly disappointed the deal didn't include a Turkish admission of genocide, there are plenty within Armenia itself who will now have opportunities that didn't exist before it was signed.
As is so often the case, this diplomacy comes down to money. Armenia is a poor country, and is right next to Turkey, which is the world's 17th largest economy. Armenian businessmen want to leave the past in the past and get on with trading with their neighbour and, through it, the world. The Turks meanwhile want to join the EU one day, and know that would not be possible without better relations with the Armenians. These economic and political forces have been helped along by the apparent personal chemistry between the two presidents, who first appeared together at last year's qualifier between the two nations in Armenia. That started the final round of diplomacy which has led to the deal and could, in time, help bring Turkey and Armenia closer to the rest of Europe.
A deal was recently agreed so Turkey and Armenia could finally establish diplomatic ties, and allowing the border between the countries to be re-opened. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was there to witness the signing of the accord, and no wonder, because the surprisingly large Armenian population of her own country (the Armenian diaspora is one of the world's most widely spread, partly because of the killings) has put plenty of pressure on Congress and forced the issue onto her agenda. Although many Armenians around the world were bitterly disappointed the deal didn't include a Turkish admission of genocide, there are plenty within Armenia itself who will now have opportunities that didn't exist before it was signed.
As is so often the case, this diplomacy comes down to money. Armenia is a poor country, and is right next to Turkey, which is the world's 17th largest economy. Armenian businessmen want to leave the past in the past and get on with trading with their neighbour and, through it, the world. The Turks meanwhile want to join the EU one day, and know that would not be possible without better relations with the Armenians. These economic and political forces have been helped along by the apparent personal chemistry between the two presidents, who first appeared together at last year's qualifier between the two nations in Armenia. That started the final round of diplomacy which has led to the deal and could, in time, help bring Turkey and Armenia closer to the rest of Europe.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
Ireland Says Yes, And EU Expansion Could Follow
At the second time of asking, voters in Ireland have approved the EU's Lisbon Treaty. The treaty is supposed to make the EU run more smoothly, now that it has 27 members. Ireland is the only country which has held a referendum on the treaty, because the Irish constitution states that it has to. The treaty would probably be voted down if many other countries held similar polls, but that's not really important, because all the other EU governments are merely approving the treaty in their parliaments. That process should be complete by the end of this year.
One of the consequences of adopting the treaty is that the EU will expand further. The simpler decision-making processes that the treaty will introduce should make this traditionally tortuous process a bit easier. Countries keen to join as soon as possible include the next most likely entrant, Croatia, which is moving closer after apparently resolving a border dispute with Slovenia. After Croatia, there are other Balkan countries to consider, including Bosnia and Serbia.
For years it has seemed that those nations would ultimately be admitted into the EU once the remaining outstanding details of the 1992-95 war were resolved, such as the war criminals who remain at large. But both Bosnia and Serbia face considerable other problems. For Bosnia, the main issue is trying to get the two halves of the country (it was split into a Muslim-Croat part and a Serb part by the Dayton peace deal) to work together. After a series of disagreements between the two administrations, an international conference has been called for this Friday in Sarajevo to try to sort it out. Without political harmony across the whole of its territory, Bosnia's hopes of EU entry will remain distant.
Serbia's position is probably worse. Serb nationalism remains a potent and, in the west at least, a largely underestimated factor. There are still significant elements within Serbia which would rather the country was allied more closely with its traditional friend Russia than join the EU. Recent large-scale job losses have helped lead to dissatisfaction with the (still newish) pro-western and pro-EU government in Belgrade. Also, the recent cancellation of a planned gay pride event in fear of violence from right-wing groups has acted as a reminder that, socially, Serbia is not yet the sort of modern, forward-looking country the EU would like to welcome into the union.
There is a significant move forward coming up in January, though. Serbian citizens are expected to be given the right to travel to the rest of the EU without a visa, a privilege they last enjoyed when they were part of Yugoslavia. The fact that Serbs have not been allowed to move easily throughout Europe in recent years has helped stoke resentment against the EU. Removing that barrier could help make sure Serbia, and its people, see their future in Europe and not elsewhere.
One of the consequences of adopting the treaty is that the EU will expand further. The simpler decision-making processes that the treaty will introduce should make this traditionally tortuous process a bit easier. Countries keen to join as soon as possible include the next most likely entrant, Croatia, which is moving closer after apparently resolving a border dispute with Slovenia. After Croatia, there are other Balkan countries to consider, including Bosnia and Serbia.
For years it has seemed that those nations would ultimately be admitted into the EU once the remaining outstanding details of the 1992-95 war were resolved, such as the war criminals who remain at large. But both Bosnia and Serbia face considerable other problems. For Bosnia, the main issue is trying to get the two halves of the country (it was split into a Muslim-Croat part and a Serb part by the Dayton peace deal) to work together. After a series of disagreements between the two administrations, an international conference has been called for this Friday in Sarajevo to try to sort it out. Without political harmony across the whole of its territory, Bosnia's hopes of EU entry will remain distant.
Serbia's position is probably worse. Serb nationalism remains a potent and, in the west at least, a largely underestimated factor. There are still significant elements within Serbia which would rather the country was allied more closely with its traditional friend Russia than join the EU. Recent large-scale job losses have helped lead to dissatisfaction with the (still newish) pro-western and pro-EU government in Belgrade. Also, the recent cancellation of a planned gay pride event in fear of violence from right-wing groups has acted as a reminder that, socially, Serbia is not yet the sort of modern, forward-looking country the EU would like to welcome into the union.
There is a significant move forward coming up in January, though. Serbian citizens are expected to be given the right to travel to the rest of the EU without a visa, a privilege they last enjoyed when they were part of Yugoslavia. The fact that Serbs have not been allowed to move easily throughout Europe in recent years has helped stoke resentment against the EU. Removing that barrier could help make sure Serbia, and its people, see their future in Europe and not elsewhere.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Time Catches Up With Radovan Karadzic
One of the world's most wanted men has been caught. A terse statement from the Serbian government reveals that the wartime political leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Radovan Karadzic, is in custody after more than a decade as a war crimes fugitive. He's accused of orchestrating the genocide of Bosnian Muslims during the Srebrenica massacre of 1995, and ordering the killing of civilians during the siege of Sarajevo.
His capture at least partly ends a long-running embarrassment for both the Serbian government and the rest of the world. Serbia's faltering attempts to try to become a more normal country on the European and world stage have been badly affected by the fact Karadzic and his old crony Ratko Mladic have been on the run. Successive Serb politicians have been against trying too hard to arrest the pair, partly because they and the Serb nationalism they stood for are still popular among a lot of Serb people. That sticking point's made it difficult for the Serbs to try to rebuild the country, both politically and economically.
But things are a bit different now. The new Serb government has said it wants to solve the issue of war crimes fugitives. The main reason it wants to do this is so it can improve the country's relations with the rest of the world, meaning a better economy and progress towards joining the EU. Its neighbour Croatia is about to do so, having finally captured its last significant alleged war criminal Ante Gotovina in 2005. Slovenia is already in the EU, and as a result is already far wealthier than the other former members of Yugoslavia.
It's unlikely Serbia will be able to make similar progress until Mladic is also appearing before the war crimes tribunal in the Hague, but expect that to happen soon enough. It's taken 13 years since the end of the war, and eight since Slobodan Milosevic was overthrown, but Serbia's leaders are finally proving they really do want to take their country forward.
His capture at least partly ends a long-running embarrassment for both the Serbian government and the rest of the world. Serbia's faltering attempts to try to become a more normal country on the European and world stage have been badly affected by the fact Karadzic and his old crony Ratko Mladic have been on the run. Successive Serb politicians have been against trying too hard to arrest the pair, partly because they and the Serb nationalism they stood for are still popular among a lot of Serb people. That sticking point's made it difficult for the Serbs to try to rebuild the country, both politically and economically.
But things are a bit different now. The new Serb government has said it wants to solve the issue of war crimes fugitives. The main reason it wants to do this is so it can improve the country's relations with the rest of the world, meaning a better economy and progress towards joining the EU. Its neighbour Croatia is about to do so, having finally captured its last significant alleged war criminal Ante Gotovina in 2005. Slovenia is already in the EU, and as a result is already far wealthier than the other former members of Yugoslavia.
It's unlikely Serbia will be able to make similar progress until Mladic is also appearing before the war crimes tribunal in the Hague, but expect that to happen soon enough. It's taken 13 years since the end of the war, and eight since Slobodan Milosevic was overthrown, but Serbia's leaders are finally proving they really do want to take their country forward.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Ireland's No Means Trouble For Europe
Ireland has voted no in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. The document includes various rules designed to make the EU run more smoothly, now that it contains 27 nations. But the Irish no vote means it's likely it'll never come into force, at least not in its current form.
The EU's not just looking for a Plan B now, but a Plan C. The Lisbon Treaty is very similar to the EU Constitution, which was scrapped when French and Dutch voters rejected it in 2005. This time, 26 of the 27 EU countries, including Britain, decided they didn't want a referendum. Publicly, governments argued such a vote wasn't necessary because the treaty wouldn't dramatically change the way individual countries are run. But really, EU leaders didn't want to hold votes because they feared the treaty would be rejected. Because of its constitution, Ireland had to hold a vote, and it produced the result EU leaders dreaded.
It's difficult to see what the EU can do now. As the club grows, it's becoming increasingly tough to run, with even slower decision-making and more of the bureaucracy the EU is notorious for. Pressure's likely to be put on Ireland to hold another referendum on a slightly different version of the treaty. Similar things have happened in Ireland and elsewhere in the past, but forcing a further vote would be unpopular as it would show blatant contempt for the will of the Irish people. Plus, there'd be no guarantee the outcome would be any different.
Instead, look for the EU to have a third go at this in a couple of years time, when Croatia becomes the union's 28th member. Another new treaty would take a lot more slow, painstaking work to put together, and it would have to be less wide-ranging than either Lisbon or the original EU Constitution. But the EU's going to have to try. Otherwise it's going to become even less efficient, and therefore even more unpopular.
The EU's not just looking for a Plan B now, but a Plan C. The Lisbon Treaty is very similar to the EU Constitution, which was scrapped when French and Dutch voters rejected it in 2005. This time, 26 of the 27 EU countries, including Britain, decided they didn't want a referendum. Publicly, governments argued such a vote wasn't necessary because the treaty wouldn't dramatically change the way individual countries are run. But really, EU leaders didn't want to hold votes because they feared the treaty would be rejected. Because of its constitution, Ireland had to hold a vote, and it produced the result EU leaders dreaded.
It's difficult to see what the EU can do now. As the club grows, it's becoming increasingly tough to run, with even slower decision-making and more of the bureaucracy the EU is notorious for. Pressure's likely to be put on Ireland to hold another referendum on a slightly different version of the treaty. Similar things have happened in Ireland and elsewhere in the past, but forcing a further vote would be unpopular as it would show blatant contempt for the will of the Irish people. Plus, there'd be no guarantee the outcome would be any different.
Instead, look for the EU to have a third go at this in a couple of years time, when Croatia becomes the union's 28th member. Another new treaty would take a lot more slow, painstaking work to put together, and it would have to be less wide-ranging than either Lisbon or the original EU Constitution. But the EU's going to have to try. Otherwise it's going to become even less efficient, and therefore even more unpopular.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Serbia's Step In The Right Direction
Serbia's president Boris Tadic has been re-elected. The pro-western Mr Tadic beat his hardline opponent Tomislav Nikolic in a run-off election, having finished behind him in the first round of voting.
It's a result to be welcomed. Having flirted with the pro-Russia, anti-EU Mr Nikolic, an ally of the late Slobodan Milosevic, Serbian voters did the right thing in giving another term to Mr Tadic. The key to Serbia matching the growing prosperity of its eastern European neighbours is keeping alive the chance that it too will one day join the EU. Negotiations about entry have been difficult so far, not least because the two most wanted war crimes suspects from the 1992-1995 war remain on the run.
Mr Mikolic tried to capitalise on the frustration many Serbs feel about the slow nature of their progress towards the EU. He offered a future outside the EU, but close to Russia. While it obviously seemed attractive to many Serbs to cosy up to its newly confident old ally, it would have left Serbia divided from most of the rest of Europe, and without the investment, trade and other benefits of EU membership. The re-election of Mr Tadic shows most Serbians want to be part of Europe. While there's a lot to do before they can be welcomed into the club, it's a big step in the right direction.
It's a result to be welcomed. Having flirted with the pro-Russia, anti-EU Mr Nikolic, an ally of the late Slobodan Milosevic, Serbian voters did the right thing in giving another term to Mr Tadic. The key to Serbia matching the growing prosperity of its eastern European neighbours is keeping alive the chance that it too will one day join the EU. Negotiations about entry have been difficult so far, not least because the two most wanted war crimes suspects from the 1992-1995 war remain on the run.
Mr Mikolic tried to capitalise on the frustration many Serbs feel about the slow nature of their progress towards the EU. He offered a future outside the EU, but close to Russia. While it obviously seemed attractive to many Serbs to cosy up to its newly confident old ally, it would have left Serbia divided from most of the rest of Europe, and without the investment, trade and other benefits of EU membership. The re-election of Mr Tadic shows most Serbians want to be part of Europe. While there's a lot to do before they can be welcomed into the club, it's a big step in the right direction.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Beginning Of The End For Belgium
Belgium hasn't got a government. In fact, it hasn't had one for five months, as politicians from the Dutch-speaking north and French-speaking south fail to reach agreement on anything, let alone a coalition. The country's not in any danger of immediate collapse, but an eventual split into two small nations seems likely, with the wealthy Flanders apparently more than able to support itself as a prosperous independent country. The less well-off Walloonia could end up being absorbed into France.
Inadvertently, the EU's got a lot to do with this. All across Europe, countries are proving it's possible to be both small and reasonably successful, as long as you're in the club. We used to talk about Ireland as an example of this, but now there's Slovenia - a country so delighted to be part of the EU it flies the blue European flag from its embassies around the world - as well as the Baltic states.
As these countries enjoy good times, residents of Flanders can be forgiven for casting envious eyes around. The same applies in Scotland which, lest we forget, this year elected a pro-independence government for the first time. It's quite an irony that an organisation created to bring Europe closer together is now so successful, it's actually fomenting the spirit of separatism. But then if everyone's in the EU, perhaps it doesn't matter so much which country we live in anymore.
Inadvertently, the EU's got a lot to do with this. All across Europe, countries are proving it's possible to be both small and reasonably successful, as long as you're in the club. We used to talk about Ireland as an example of this, but now there's Slovenia - a country so delighted to be part of the EU it flies the blue European flag from its embassies around the world - as well as the Baltic states.
As these countries enjoy good times, residents of Flanders can be forgiven for casting envious eyes around. The same applies in Scotland which, lest we forget, this year elected a pro-independence government for the first time. It's quite an irony that an organisation created to bring Europe closer together is now so successful, it's actually fomenting the spirit of separatism. But then if everyone's in the EU, perhaps it doesn't matter so much which country we live in anymore.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
It's Over
Five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor, accused of infecting hundreds of Libyan children with HIV, have been freed at last. They've been held in a Libyan jail for eight years, and at one stage were sentenced to death. But now they've been released as part of what's being described as a "full partnership" deal between Libya and the EU, of which Bulgaria is now a member.
This is Libya's latest step on the road to normal relations with Europe and other western countries. After years of sanctions following his bolshy behaviour in the 80s, and his subsequent refusal to hand over the Lockerbie bombing suspects, Libya's leader Colonel Gadaffi realised it was better to be on the inside rather than the outside in international relations, not least to help shore up his own domestic dictatorship. Following the Lockerbie trial, and then his decision to give up Libya's weapons of mass destruction programmes, this is another move towards becoming a regular sort of country again.
In typical Gadaffi style though, it's come at a price. The EU's now promising more medical aid and closer political ties to Tripoli, which can only make life better for ordinary Libyans, and therefore make their leader more popular. The canny way he's handled these moves to bring Libya back into the global fold, should make sure Gadaffi stays in power for the foreseeable future.
This is Libya's latest step on the road to normal relations with Europe and other western countries. After years of sanctions following his bolshy behaviour in the 80s, and his subsequent refusal to hand over the Lockerbie bombing suspects, Libya's leader Colonel Gadaffi realised it was better to be on the inside rather than the outside in international relations, not least to help shore up his own domestic dictatorship. Following the Lockerbie trial, and then his decision to give up Libya's weapons of mass destruction programmes, this is another move towards becoming a regular sort of country again.
In typical Gadaffi style though, it's come at a price. The EU's now promising more medical aid and closer political ties to Tripoli, which can only make life better for ordinary Libyans, and therefore make their leader more popular. The canny way he's handled these moves to bring Libya back into the global fold, should make sure Gadaffi stays in power for the foreseeable future.
Friday, May 11, 2007
A Deal, At Last
Better news from Belgrade, where parties have finally agreed a coalition deal more than three months after Serbia's general election. The really good bit is that the agreement keeps out the largest party in the parliament, the ultra-nationalist Radicals. Their Milosevic-style rhetoric and firm opposition to an independent Kosovo had caused plenty of people around the world to wonder whether Serbia might go back to the bad old days of the 1990s.
Within a couple of hours of the agreement being announced, the draft resolution on Kosovo was circulated at the UN. Despite grumblings from Russia, the political deal in Belgrade makes it a lot more likely we'll see an independent Kosovo fairly soon. It also means joining the EU is back on the cards for the Serbs, with what they call pre-membership talks certain to restart once the new government's in place.
Serbia's mainstream politicians have proved with this agreement they can turn their backs on the old ways. But they, the EU, the UN, and everyone else, must do a better job of convincing the Serb public of the way forward. The rise of the Radicals proves many are still inclined to flirt with the worst kind of nationalism.
Within a couple of hours of the agreement being announced, the draft resolution on Kosovo was circulated at the UN. Despite grumblings from Russia, the political deal in Belgrade makes it a lot more likely we'll see an independent Kosovo fairly soon. It also means joining the EU is back on the cards for the Serbs, with what they call pre-membership talks certain to restart once the new government's in place.
Serbia's mainstream politicians have proved with this agreement they can turn their backs on the old ways. But they, the EU, the UN, and everyone else, must do a better job of convincing the Serb public of the way forward. The rise of the Radicals proves many are still inclined to flirt with the worst kind of nationalism.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
The Trail's Gone Cold
Authorities in Montenegro spent the weekend talking to various members of the Karadzic family, amid rumours the fugitive Radovan Karadzic has been hiding out there lately. The former political leader of the Bosnian Serbs has been on the run for more than a decade, as has his military henchman Ratko Mladic. Despite being Europe's most wanted men, little's been heard of them in all that time.
It seems certain both are somewhere in either Serbia, Montenegro, or the Republika Srpska, which is the Serb bit of Bosnia. But a mixture of some of Europe's roughest terrain, fiercely loyal elements in the Serb military, and general incompetence and corruption among local officials, has made it easy for them to remain at large. But they'll be caught eventually, and it's the EU that holds the key to how quickly it'll happen.
The other Balkan countries are casting envious eyes at Slovenia, which was barely touched by the war and is firmly in the club these days. It's twice as prosperous as the rest of the former Yugoslavia, and proudly flies the EU flag from its embassies around the world. The other nations are still exhausted by the war, and need the prospect of EU entry to help them establish themselves. But Brussels rightly won't talk until all the war criminals are handed over. Croatia's government finally gave in 15 months ago, risking mass unpopularity with its people by giving up its most wanted fugitive, Ante Gotovina. A national hero for leading the Croats to victory over the Serbs in 1995, he's now answering questions about hundreds of dead Serb civilians. Croatia's reward is likely EU membership within two years, which will mean money, investment and lots more tourism on its Adriatic coast.
It's money and investment that's even more desperately needed in Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. But as long as politicians and police in each country think the capture of Karadzic and Mladic would make enough of the public angry, they won't try too hard to find them. That's why it's up to the EU to make a big show of twisting arms. It should do two things: first, set a deadline of later this year, and tell the three governments that if they're not in custody by then, talks on EU membership will be off the table for a generation; and also put up a much bigger cash reward for whoever hands them in, in the hope it'll persuade someone shielding them to finally betray them. Those two juicy carrots might just do the trick, but it's up to Brussels to make it happen.
It seems certain both are somewhere in either Serbia, Montenegro, or the Republika Srpska, which is the Serb bit of Bosnia. But a mixture of some of Europe's roughest terrain, fiercely loyal elements in the Serb military, and general incompetence and corruption among local officials, has made it easy for them to remain at large. But they'll be caught eventually, and it's the EU that holds the key to how quickly it'll happen.
The other Balkan countries are casting envious eyes at Slovenia, which was barely touched by the war and is firmly in the club these days. It's twice as prosperous as the rest of the former Yugoslavia, and proudly flies the EU flag from its embassies around the world. The other nations are still exhausted by the war, and need the prospect of EU entry to help them establish themselves. But Brussels rightly won't talk until all the war criminals are handed over. Croatia's government finally gave in 15 months ago, risking mass unpopularity with its people by giving up its most wanted fugitive, Ante Gotovina. A national hero for leading the Croats to victory over the Serbs in 1995, he's now answering questions about hundreds of dead Serb civilians. Croatia's reward is likely EU membership within two years, which will mean money, investment and lots more tourism on its Adriatic coast.
It's money and investment that's even more desperately needed in Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. But as long as politicians and police in each country think the capture of Karadzic and Mladic would make enough of the public angry, they won't try too hard to find them. That's why it's up to the EU to make a big show of twisting arms. It should do two things: first, set a deadline of later this year, and tell the three governments that if they're not in custody by then, talks on EU membership will be off the table for a generation; and also put up a much bigger cash reward for whoever hands them in, in the hope it'll persuade someone shielding them to finally betray them. Those two juicy carrots might just do the trick, but it's up to Brussels to make it happen.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Happy Birthday
Just a few days after Osama Bin Laden turned 50, the EU is marking the same anniversary. Beyond tonight's pointless football game at Old Trafford, the birthday's passing with a pleasing lack of the self-satisfied ceremony we've come to expect from the union.
Not that the EU hasn't got a lot to be satisfied about. Leaving aside all the bickering that's made it so unpopular in many countries, including Britain, it has been a spectacular success in achieving the main reason it was set up in the first place: to make sure there won't ever be another massive war involving the whole continent. Bitter debates over fishing quotas are a lot better than fighting real battles over chunks of central Europe.
With the EU probably the greatest force for peace in the modern world, Bin Laden is arguably the greatest force for war. Although his powers seem to be on the wane (it's nearly two and a half years since we last saw new pictures of him), he and his Al Qaeda mates will have a big influence on our lives for a while yet. But I think the EU will endure a lot longer, and that's something we should all be pretty pleased about.
Not that the EU hasn't got a lot to be satisfied about. Leaving aside all the bickering that's made it so unpopular in many countries, including Britain, it has been a spectacular success in achieving the main reason it was set up in the first place: to make sure there won't ever be another massive war involving the whole continent. Bitter debates over fishing quotas are a lot better than fighting real battles over chunks of central Europe.
With the EU probably the greatest force for peace in the modern world, Bin Laden is arguably the greatest force for war. Although his powers seem to be on the wane (it's nearly two and a half years since we last saw new pictures of him), he and his Al Qaeda mates will have a big influence on our lives for a while yet. But I think the EU will endure a lot longer, and that's something we should all be pretty pleased about.
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