While the world has been largely watching Libya, Syria has become the latest government to face protests as part of the so-called Arab Spring. But despite sacking his government, President Assad this week signalled he wouldn't be offering much in the way of compromises to his internal opponents, as he insisted long-standing emergency laws would remain in place.
The resignation of the entire government wasn't nearly as big a concession as it sounds. Control of Ba'athist Syria has always been concentrated in the hands of the President and a few cronies, including those who run the country's security apparatus. It was ever thus. The last serious attempt at an uprising, 29 years ago, ended in an extraordinary massacre ordered by the current President Assad's father.
When Assad Junior came to power in 2000, there was some hope he might prove to be a reforming leader. Western-educated and with a British-born wife, he was considered a somewhat reluctant President, who only got his chance after his elder brother Basil died in a mysterious car crash.
But those hopes have been gradually extinguished during his decade in office. He might not be about to massacre opponents as his father did, but President Assad is clearly determined to retain as much personal power as he's always had. If his regime ultimately falls as part of the Arab Spring, and that prospect seems an awfully long way off despite the demonstrations, it'll be quite a demonstration of how the region is changing.
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Syria Edges In From The Cold
Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is holding talks in Damascus with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. The two countries had a big falling out a few years ago when the Saudi-backed Lebanese politician Rafik Hariri was assassinated, apparently on Syria's orders. The dispute between these two major regional players has hindered efforts to solve problems such as Israel/Palestine, Iran's nuclear ambitions and the security crisis in Iraq.
Just talking a bit isn't going to do much to tackle those big issues, but this sort of meeting can only be a positive sign for western governments. If the US and the west in general is going to improve the stability of the Middle East, it's important to have the major Arab governments agreeing with each other rather than not. For example, Syria has sway over groups such as Hizbollah, which it supports financially, and to a lesser extent Hamas. No meaningful peace is possible in the Middle East without the approval of those groups, and so there can be no 'peace process' worthy of the name without the support of Syria, and indeed the rest of the Arab countries.
How far Syria might go in co-operating with anyone, let alone the west, is difficult to say. After the death of Assad's father, the hardline Hafez al-Assad, back in 2000, there was an expectation that Syria would become more pro-western. But despite the odd hint, and the fear in Damascus immediately following the invasion of Iraq that it could be next on America's list, the Ba'athist regime in Syria remains more focused on acting in its own interests and ensuring its own survival. However, with most of the elder Assad's old cronies now gone from the Syrian political scene, it's possible this latest step by Assad junior might be a sign of warmer international relations to come. Just don't bet on it.
Just talking a bit isn't going to do much to tackle those big issues, but this sort of meeting can only be a positive sign for western governments. If the US and the west in general is going to improve the stability of the Middle East, it's important to have the major Arab governments agreeing with each other rather than not. For example, Syria has sway over groups such as Hizbollah, which it supports financially, and to a lesser extent Hamas. No meaningful peace is possible in the Middle East without the approval of those groups, and so there can be no 'peace process' worthy of the name without the support of Syria, and indeed the rest of the Arab countries.
How far Syria might go in co-operating with anyone, let alone the west, is difficult to say. After the death of Assad's father, the hardline Hafez al-Assad, back in 2000, there was an expectation that Syria would become more pro-western. But despite the odd hint, and the fear in Damascus immediately following the invasion of Iraq that it could be next on America's list, the Ba'athist regime in Syria remains more focused on acting in its own interests and ensuring its own survival. However, with most of the elder Assad's old cronies now gone from the Syrian political scene, it's possible this latest step by Assad junior might be a sign of warmer international relations to come. Just don't bet on it.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Trouble In Tripoli
Since the weekend, Lebanon's been plunged into its worst internal fighting since the end of the civil war nearly two decades ago. Well-armed members of a militant Islamist group, holed up in a refugee camp near Tripoli in the north of the country, have been fighting Lebanese troops since a few of their number were arrested over a bank robbery the other day.
Bank robberies don't have much to do with this, but Syria has everything to do with it. This Islamist group appears to be operating with at least the tacit support of Syria, and possibly firmer backing in the form of guns and so on. Ever since the death of Syria's Ba'athist strongman Hafez al-Assad back in 2000, their traditional hold over Lebanese affairs has been loosened. In 2003, as US forced stormed through Baghdad, there appeared to be genuine concern in Damascus and everywhere else that Syria might be next unless it stopped supporting Palestinian militant groups. The Syrians were on their uppers.
But since then, as Iraq has fallen apart, so Syria has felt able to act with impunity once again, as the elder Assad's old mates pull the strings in the shadows of his son's regime. This fighting is the latest in a series of attempts by Syria to meddle in Lebanon's affairs - the most significant being the assassination of Lebanon's former PM (and anti-Syrian) Rafik Hariri.
Just as one side-effect of the invasion of Iraq has been to produce a far stronger Iran, it also seems to be leading to a stronger Syria. If Damascus continues to feel it can do whatever it likes in Lebanon, that's not a good thing at all, least of all for the Lebanese people.
Bank robberies don't have much to do with this, but Syria has everything to do with it. This Islamist group appears to be operating with at least the tacit support of Syria, and possibly firmer backing in the form of guns and so on. Ever since the death of Syria's Ba'athist strongman Hafez al-Assad back in 2000, their traditional hold over Lebanese affairs has been loosened. In 2003, as US forced stormed through Baghdad, there appeared to be genuine concern in Damascus and everywhere else that Syria might be next unless it stopped supporting Palestinian militant groups. The Syrians were on their uppers.
But since then, as Iraq has fallen apart, so Syria has felt able to act with impunity once again, as the elder Assad's old mates pull the strings in the shadows of his son's regime. This fighting is the latest in a series of attempts by Syria to meddle in Lebanon's affairs - the most significant being the assassination of Lebanon's former PM (and anti-Syrian) Rafik Hariri.
Just as one side-effect of the invasion of Iraq has been to produce a far stronger Iran, it also seems to be leading to a stronger Syria. If Damascus continues to feel it can do whatever it likes in Lebanon, that's not a good thing at all, least of all for the Lebanese people.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Today's Other Election
People in France are voting in the first round of their presidential election today. Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, Le Pen, Bove - it's quite a choice. But choice is not something available to voters in the former French colony of Syria, where parliamentary elections are taking place. It's safe to say it won't be too much of a surprise if President Assad's Ba'ath Party remains in control of the oddly-Soviet sounding Council Of The People.
With all the attention on Iran over the last year or two, Syria's re-emergence as a pretty major annoyance in the Middle East has gone a bit un-noticed. A few years back, with the wet-behind-the-ears Assad new in the job and following the crushing military defeat suffered by his Ba'athist bedfellows in Baghdad, it looked possible that Damascus was next on the list of capitals to be subjected to regime change.
But it's all different now. The assassination of ex-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri proves Assad's father's old mates can still do as they please. Syria's support for Hizbollah, and the credibility that group gained around the Middle East by their fighting of Israel to a standstill, confirms Syria's renewed influence. It's every bit as meddlesome now as it ever was in the old days. And regime change seems about as likely as a Ba'athist defeat today.
With all the attention on Iran over the last year or two, Syria's re-emergence as a pretty major annoyance in the Middle East has gone a bit un-noticed. A few years back, with the wet-behind-the-ears Assad new in the job and following the crushing military defeat suffered by his Ba'athist bedfellows in Baghdad, it looked possible that Damascus was next on the list of capitals to be subjected to regime change.
But it's all different now. The assassination of ex-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri proves Assad's father's old mates can still do as they please. Syria's support for Hizbollah, and the credibility that group gained around the Middle East by their fighting of Israel to a standstill, confirms Syria's renewed influence. It's every bit as meddlesome now as it ever was in the old days. And regime change seems about as likely as a Ba'athist defeat today.
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