After more than a quarter of a century of civil war, the Tamil Tigers have finally been defeated. All territory lost, the body of their dead leader paraded on Sri Lankan television, their hopes of establishing a Tamil homeland in the north of the island apparently over. Or at least that's how it looks today, following the decisive military victory won by Sri Lankan government forces. But it's not quite as simple as that.
Leaving aside the allegations of human rights abuses on both sides, and the reported quarter of a million people displaced in recent weeks by the government's final offensive, what happens next politically is hugely important for the future of Sri Lanka. If the conflict is not to flare up again in future, the government must be gracious in victory, and begin work immediately towards doing a better job of involving the Tamil people in the government and general society of the whole island. But if the Sri Lankan government and the majority Sinhalese population insist on humiliating the Tamils (and after such a bitter, long-running war, that wouldn't be too surprising), then they'll only be storing up trouble.
The Tamil Tigers may no longer have the ability to take and hold territory, and the days when they had their own navy and air force seem like a long time ago now, but you can bet that some of the surviving Tigers will be intent on revenge. Some form of guerrilla campaign, featuring the suicide bombings the Tigers became infamous for, will be inevitable unless the Sri Lankan government takes care to give the Tamil people at least some of what they've been fighting for. Perhaps greater autonomy might be a start. Otherwise, with a Tamil population around the world now radicalised by the bloody defeat suffered by the Tigers, another war could soon be in the offing.
Showing posts with label Sri Lanka. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sri Lanka. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
The Tamil Tigers' Last Stand
It looks as though Sri Lanka's long civil war could be in its final stages. Government troops have captured yet more of what little territory the rebel Tamil Tigers have left, leading to a big exodus of refugees from the area, in the north of the island. Less than three years ago the Tigers, who want their own homeland, controlled more than 15,000 square kilometres. Today that's down to two tiny areas, with what's left of their army now split between them.
The Tigers won't want to surrender - their fighters famously carry cyanide capsules on strings around their necks to take if they're captured - but it seems they may completely collapse within days under huge pressure from the Sri Lankan government forces. Occasionally during the last 25 years of war, the government troops have made major gains against the Tigers, only to back off in favour of negotiations, which rarely led very far and gave the Tigers the opportunity to regroup and rearm.
This time it's different. The Sri Lankan government wants to get rid of the Tigers once and for all, and seems intent on doing whatever it takes. Human rights groups have joined the Tigers in accusing the government troops of killing civilians during their offensive, by firing artillery at buildings including hospitals. But this is a crisis that has failed to capture the attention of politicians or the media in the rest of the world, so the Sri Lankans seem likely to get away with murder. They probably believe that civilian deaths are an inevitable price of the tough tactics necessary to defeat the terrorist Tigers. Governments elsewhere obviously believe that too, because they've given the Sri Lankans a free pass to do whatever they like.
The Tigers won't want to surrender - their fighters famously carry cyanide capsules on strings around their necks to take if they're captured - but it seems they may completely collapse within days under huge pressure from the Sri Lankan government forces. Occasionally during the last 25 years of war, the government troops have made major gains against the Tigers, only to back off in favour of negotiations, which rarely led very far and gave the Tigers the opportunity to regroup and rearm.
This time it's different. The Sri Lankan government wants to get rid of the Tigers once and for all, and seems intent on doing whatever it takes. Human rights groups have joined the Tigers in accusing the government troops of killing civilians during their offensive, by firing artillery at buildings including hospitals. But this is a crisis that has failed to capture the attention of politicians or the media in the rest of the world, so the Sri Lankans seem likely to get away with murder. They probably believe that civilian deaths are an inevitable price of the tough tactics necessary to defeat the terrorist Tigers. Governments elsewhere obviously believe that too, because they've given the Sri Lankans a free pass to do whatever they like.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Not Cricket
Gunmen have attacked the Sri Lankan cricket team in the Pakistani city of Lahore. At least six local security officers were killed along with a driver, while seven of the cricketers were injured. Around 10 or 12 individuals actually carried out the attack, and none of them were arrested at the scene.
Some early speculation has put the blame on the Tamil Tigers, currently struggling badly in their struggle for a homeland in Sri Lanka, as the country's government carries out a brutal offensive aimed at wiping them out once and for all. But the attack isn't really their style. The LTTE have traditionally used suicide attacks, and have usually targeted politicians and other officials rather than cricketers. Sri Lanka's greatest ever cricketer, Muttiah Muralitharan, who was on the team bus when it was attacked, is a Tamil himself. It seems extremely unlikely that, even if the Tigers are still capable of carrying out a major terrorist attack, that they would try to kill one of their own.
A better guess is that the attack was the work of Islamist extremists. The similarities to last year's assault on Mumbai in India are striking - the level of planning apparently involved, the gang of about ten gunmen and the apparent use of grenades and rocket launchers. Within India and elsewhere, the Pakistani security services were widely accused of being at the very least complicit in the Mumbai attack, and no doubt similar allegations will now surface about possible Indian involvement in this incident, as retaliation. Whether that's true or not is impossible to judge at this stage, but if such a view becomes widespread, expect the tension between India and Pakistan to rise to levels not seen since the Kashmir crisis of 2002. All-out war between these two nuclear powers seems inconceivable, but don't be surprised if there's a build-up of forces on both sides, and possibly even military incursions into disputed territories, perhaps on the pretext of arresting terrorists. Today's attack could have an impact far greater than the cancellation of a game of cricket.
Some early speculation has put the blame on the Tamil Tigers, currently struggling badly in their struggle for a homeland in Sri Lanka, as the country's government carries out a brutal offensive aimed at wiping them out once and for all. But the attack isn't really their style. The LTTE have traditionally used suicide attacks, and have usually targeted politicians and other officials rather than cricketers. Sri Lanka's greatest ever cricketer, Muttiah Muralitharan, who was on the team bus when it was attacked, is a Tamil himself. It seems extremely unlikely that, even if the Tigers are still capable of carrying out a major terrorist attack, that they would try to kill one of their own.
A better guess is that the attack was the work of Islamist extremists. The similarities to last year's assault on Mumbai in India are striking - the level of planning apparently involved, the gang of about ten gunmen and the apparent use of grenades and rocket launchers. Within India and elsewhere, the Pakistani security services were widely accused of being at the very least complicit in the Mumbai attack, and no doubt similar allegations will now surface about possible Indian involvement in this incident, as retaliation. Whether that's true or not is impossible to judge at this stage, but if such a view becomes widespread, expect the tension between India and Pakistan to rise to levels not seen since the Kashmir crisis of 2002. All-out war between these two nuclear powers seems inconceivable, but don't be surprised if there's a build-up of forces on both sides, and possibly even military incursions into disputed territories, perhaps on the pretext of arresting terrorists. Today's attack could have an impact far greater than the cancellation of a game of cricket.
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