No Alternatives, But No War Either

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates says the US isn't looking for an alternative to the current six-party talks on North Korea. The standoff over North Korea's nuclear programme was recently ratcheted up a notch by its latest nuclear test, along with a series of tests of non-nuclear missiles. Mr Gates told his counterparts from Japan and South Korea today that diplomacy remains the way forward, although other options may be considered if that fails.

But here's the thing. Diplomacy won't fail altogether, in as much as there won't be an all-out war. North Korea doesn't want to start another Korean War, let alone a nuclear one. The warnings from North Korea about aiming missiles at the South, or taking even stronger measures if the UN announces further sanctions (as it probably will do this week), are not made with the idea that those threats will ever be carried out.

North Korea's actions are all about old-fashioned power politics. Its interest is in strengthening its position so when it eventually decides to take the negotiations seriously it can get more of what it wants, which probably include things like trade and aid. There's also the personal motivation of the ailing Dear Leader, Kim Jong-Il. With no obvious successor, North Korea faces an uncertain future should he die, and he's surely worried that not only his regime, but perhaps the whole country might cease to exist after he's gone. Having nuclear weapons and showing them off every now and again makes that prospect far more remote.

Korea Move

North Korea has struck a deal with the other countries involved in the six-party talks on its nuclear future. It says it's going to freeze its nuclear reactor and let the weapons inspectors back in, in return for aid worth more than 300 million dollars. Although any deal involving North Korea could reasonably be called a good deal, this isn't one of the best.

If they're honoured, the terms of the agreement would see the situation return more or less to how things used to be before the North Koreans fell out with the US a few years back. It essentially rewards the regime for last year's nuclear test, by tacitly admitting it's possible to buy international aid and the prospect of the recognition North Korea's leaders crave, simply by letting off a big old bomb. Telling the North Koreans to freeze their nuclear activities surely won't bother them too much, now their programme has achieved the first part what it was supposed to. The ban imposed on exports of cognac last month probably annoys Kim Jong Il more, given that he's the world's largest private importer of the stuff.

Whether it's in a few months or a few years, and there's another falling out, you can bet the inspectors will be out and the nuclear sabre-rattling will begin again (as long as China lets them). And after some more tortured negotiations, the North Koreans will get a bit more of what they want. It's the strangest and most dangerous way that any country's ever tried to ease towards international acceptance. But it seems to be working, bit by tiny bit.