Court Eases Tensions In Zimbabwe

A court in Zimbabwe has acquitted a senior figure in the Movement for Democratic Change of terrorism charges. Former white farmer Roy Bennett is the treasurer-general of the MDC party, which is engaged in a fractious power-sharing arrangement with the Zanu-PF party of Robert Mugabe. The charges against Mr Bennett has been one of the main sources of tension between the two sides, but a judge threw the case out yesterday saying there wasn't enough evidence.

This is an important decision, because it shows that the judiciary in Zimbabwe is independent. The charges against Mr Bennett may have been trumped up by Zanu-PF sympathisers in the police and prosecution service, but the fact the case got nowhere in the courts suggests they may think again before bringing such politically motivated cases in the future.

If the judiciary in Zimbabwe can remain independent and stable, that makes it more likely other institutions will start to display the same qualities. Many have long been in the grip of Zanu-PF, with newspaper editors, police chiefs and plenty of others too frightened for their own futures to do anything other than Mr Mugabe's bidding. This visible independence of Zimbabwe's courts is therefore not just a step forward for the country's legal system, but for its wider democracy. Little by little, Zimbabwe is recovering.

Sharing Power, Sharing The Blame

Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has finally been sworn in as Zimbabwe's Prime Minister. I say finally because today's ceremony follows months of wrangling between his MDC party, and the Zanu-PF regime of President Robert Mugabe, following the outcome of last year's hotly disputed election. The final major sticking point, namely which of the parties would control the police force, was eventually settled with an agreement that a minister from each party would share that responsibility, a messy deal that's unsatisfactory to say the least.

Mr Tsvangirai, probably rightly, no doubt thinks that this deal is the best he can get, and it's way past time to stop talking and start working. With Zimbabwe facing well-documented economic and health crises, and desperately in need of new leadership, Mr Tsvangirai perhaps reasons that offering whatever leadership he and his ministers can in the areas they're being allowed to run is better than nothing.

But therein lies the problem. With Zanu PF still maintaining some kind of hold over Zimbabwe's security apparatus, it's not clear exactly how much leadership the MDC ministers will really be allowed to offer. After all, the new MDC finance minister was until recently considered by the Zanu PF regime as being one of the country's most dangerous subversives, and only had charges of treason against him dropped last week. And besides, even if the new MDC ministers in the coalition administration really are allowed to govern in a meaningful way, unhindered by Mugabe's goons, the problems faced by Zimbabwe are so severe they're surely impossible to solve in the near future. No matter how hard he tries, Morgan Tsvangirai may soon find himself sharing the blame for those problems with Robert Mugabe, simply because he's now in power.

Zimbabwe And A Political Football

The run-off presidential election is about to take place in Zimbabwe. After the opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out amid beatings and killings of his supporters, the winner will be President Robert Mugabe. There's been some grumbling from neighbouring governments in southern Africa, not happy at both the general embarrassment of Mugabe's behaviour and the amount of Zimbabwean refugees steadily heading across the area's borders. But any hope of a political solution still seems to rest with the 'quiet diplomacy' strategy of South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki - a strategy that has been a spectacular failure.

It's difficult for Britain to put more pressure on Mugabe, because any intervention by the former colonial power feeds into the anti-British propaganda that he uses to help explain the country's dismal economic state to his people. However, something the British government did this week offers a clue to the way forward. Next year's cricket tour to England by the Zimbabwe team was called off. It's a small sporting sanction, but there's a bigger one the rest of the world can take to put the heat on South Africa.

Major nations around the world should threaten to take the 2010 football World Cup away from South Africa. It was sporting sanctions that played a significant role in undermining South Africa's apartheid government during the 1970s and 80s. Now, the threat of another one could be the blunt instrument needed to prod Mr Mbeki into forcing Mugabe into a political deal. Just as the Beijing Olympics will be for China, the 2010 World Cup's supposed to be the party that shows South Africa off to the world. It's a prize the South African government values more than anything else. It's the lever the world needs to pull, to try to end the killing in Zimbabwe.

Mugabe Hangs On

Results from Zimbabwe's presidential and parliamentary elections are slowly being released by the country's electoral commission. Despite claims from the opposition MDC that they've won a thumping victory, the results we've seen so far show them roughly level with the Zanu PF party led by President Robert Mugabe. Given the suspiciously slow speed at which the results are being released, as well as Mugabe's past form for rigging elections, it's fair to assume something dodgy's going on.

But the signs are time could at last be just about up for Mr Mugabe. One reason is the election campaign itself, which went off surprisingly peacefully. In the past, the military and police would have been quick to use violence to suppress the opposition. That didn't happen nearly as much this time, suggesting support for Mr Mugabe within the army may have melted away. In the event of a dubious election result being hotly disputed by the opposition and its supporters, which side the military chooses to support would probably prove decisive.

Then there's the apparent scale of vote-rigging that would be required to change these results. Unofficial tallies released by the opposition and others show Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC with around two-thirds of the vote both in the parliamentary and presidential polls. Zanu PF supporters and even Mr Mugabe himself must know to declare him the outright victor, as the state-owned Herald newspaper is apparently going to do in the morning, would be just too ridiculous. But the sad truth about Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe, where inflation runs at 100,000% is that nothing is too ridiculous. Don't be surprised if he tries to hang on once again.

A Change Is Gonna Come

The US ambassador to Zimbabwe believes the country's economic crisis will drive President Mugabe from office within months, if not weeks. Christopher Dell reckons inflation will hit at least 1,500,000% by the end of the year. The state Zimbabwe is in can be demonstrated by the golfers who pay for drinks before they begin their rounds, knowing the price will have gone up by the time they come off the 18th.

One reason to back up the idea that Mugabe will soon be overthrown, is the apparent division in his Zanu-PF party. A recent alleged coup plot has led to six men appearing in court. If the divisions run as deep as some observers believe, and are replicated in the military, it may well be not too long before some top general or other can't resist it any longer and tries to seize power.

Sadly, there's not much evidence a military government would be any better at running the country and economy than Mugabe's mob. Hopes for a better future for Zimbabwe still rest with the opposition MDC, and its leader Morgan Tsvangirai. If a revolution does happen, it's possible pressure and support from the West, and critically South Africa, could help him into office. Even then, Zimbabwe's economy is in a state of such unimaginable ruins, it'll take a long time to get the place back on its feet.

Doing The Right Thing

There are plenty of reasons not to like Australia's Prime Minister John Howard. A big one is that he refuses to sign the Kyoto treaty, as coal from his country (the world's largest exporter of the black stuff) dirties up the atmosphere. His often disgraceful rhetoric on immigration has helped keep him in power, and proved a big influence on Michael Howard's Tories at the last election here. But he's shown some welcome backbone on Zimbabwe, by telling Australia's World Cup-winning cricketers they can't go on tour there later this year. In doing so, he's given an example to governments around the world, including Britain.

Mr Howard's comments likening Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu PF mob to the Gestapo are spot on, and he's right to say a visit by Australia's cricketers would be a propaganda boost for Robert Mugabe's regime. But the main reason to applaud his standpoint is that he's promising to put his hand in his pocket to compensate Cricket Australia, for the loss of revenue they'll suffer if the matches don't go ahead at a neutral venue.

For politicians elsewhere to condemn Zimbabwe and, in the same sentence, claim that politics has no place in sport, just isn't good enough. By finding this practical solution, Mr Howard's shown how the problem should be handled.

Throw Them Out

After another week of violence and oppression in Zimbabwe, the leader of the opposition has left hospital in a wheelchair after being badly beaten by supporters of President Robert Mugabe. Meanwhile, the country's cricketers have played their first match of the world cup in the West Indies, scrambling a tie against Ireland.

Four years ago the political situation in Zimbabwe dominated the tournament, as England rightly decided not to play a match there. Two Zimbabwe players wore black armbands in protest at the situation in their country, a situation that's got even worse since then. One of them, Andy Flower (without doubt the greatest player in his country's history), has now renewed his call for sporting sanctions against Zimbabwe.

He's right. Cricket is just about the only area in which Zimbabwe still has an international presence. Even though all its top players left the game and the country long ago, it's still allowed to field a side in one-day internationals. The fact their participation in this world cup has passed so far with barely a word of protest from the cricket authorities or any of the other countries, despite this week's events back in Zimbabwe, is shameful. The ICC may argue it's not a political body and doesn't want to get involved, but that's a pathetic stance.

The ICC should immediately throw Zimbabwe out of the world cup and all international cricket. It won't, because it doesn't want another political row overshadowing its showpiece event. But that's no excuse for not doing the right thing.