The leaders of Israel and the Palestinian Authority have demanded that the other change their position before proper negotiations about a peace deal can take place. Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas were talking separately after a meeting with President Obama in New York on Tuesday, a meeting that appears to have achieved absolutely nothing.
Not that it was expected to. For decades the world has looked to the US President to push things forward in the Israel/Palestine conflict. This is because the US is by far Israel's biggest ally and supporter, and so the US President is just about the only outside person the Israeli government generally listens to. Some presidents have spent more time on this issue than others, but usually most of them at least attempt to make some sort of progress, even George W Bush had his ill-fated 'roadmap' to peace, which sadly proved about as effective as a broken satnav.
Barack Obama may yet devote time and energy to the problem, but he's got plenty of other issues to deal with just now. Healthcare is the main one. There's also Afghanistan. So not much of a look in for Israel/Palestine, and with the hardline Mr Netanyahu telling anyone who'll listen that the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon is by far the most important threat to Israel, there doesn't seem to be much desire from the Israeli side to get down to some serious talking with the Palestinians. As for Mr Abbas, he doesn't speak for Hamas which runs the Gaza Strip, so he can hardly claim to represent the whole Palestinian population. So with the focus of the main players firmly elsewhere, don't expect much progress towards restarting the seemingly never ending 'peace process' for some time yet.
Showing posts with label Palestine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Palestine. Show all posts
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Talks About Talks
It's a sort-of important week for the Middle East. The Israeli and Palestinian leaders are among various interested folk invited to Annapolis for US-hosted talks aimed at reviving the peace process. Even Syria agreed at the last minute to turn up, although its decision to only send its deputy foreign minister demonstrates how little Damascus cares about the summit.
The changing attitude of President Bush is one main reason why these talks are happening. As with many presidents before him, not least Bill Clinton, he's turning his attention abroad in the final months of his time in office, in a bid to create something positive to remember him by. With Iraq likely to dominate any assessment of Mr Bush, he's going to have to produce something extremely special to knock that from the opening paragraph of his obituary. It's not entirely fair to say Bush has never taken much interest in the Israel/Palestine question - he's gone further than Clinton ever did in calling for a sovereign Palestinian state - but there's no doubt the last seven years have been pretty bleak for everyone involved.
Nothing much is going to improve at Annapolis. These really are talks about talks - a good outcome would be if everyone can agree the terms of future negotiations, and fix a date for those to take place. Only then can the big questions that generations of politicians have failed to solve - land-for-peace, security, Jerusalem - be put back on the agenda.
The changing attitude of President Bush is one main reason why these talks are happening. As with many presidents before him, not least Bill Clinton, he's turning his attention abroad in the final months of his time in office, in a bid to create something positive to remember him by. With Iraq likely to dominate any assessment of Mr Bush, he's going to have to produce something extremely special to knock that from the opening paragraph of his obituary. It's not entirely fair to say Bush has never taken much interest in the Israel/Palestine question - he's gone further than Clinton ever did in calling for a sovereign Palestinian state - but there's no doubt the last seven years have been pretty bleak for everyone involved.
Nothing much is going to improve at Annapolis. These really are talks about talks - a good outcome would be if everyone can agree the terms of future negotiations, and fix a date for those to take place. Only then can the big questions that generations of politicians have failed to solve - land-for-peace, security, Jerusalem - be put back on the agenda.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
Talking About Talking
Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has held talks with the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. For the first time, they met in the West Bank, and Mr Olmert said he wanted negotiations on a Palestinian state to resume soon.
That's fine and dandy, but there's absolutely no reason to get excited about this at all. In the slightest. Scarcely in the modern history of the Middle East can two leaders in weaker positions have held such a meeting. Mr Olmert's under pressure from just about everybody at home, over issues such as how last summer's war with Hizbollah came about, and even the treatment of holocaust victims. Mr Abbas has to meet people in the West Bank these days, because he can't go to Gaza since Hamas routed his Fatah party in a bloody but brief civil war. It's clear both men don't have a great deal of sway over their people right now.
When two leaders in the Middle East, or indeed anywhere, hold some talks to say they're going to hold some more talks, it's not exactly Earth-shattering news at the best of times. When those two leaders are Messrs Olmert and Abbas, it's fair to say the talking's not going to turn into anything more substantial anytime soon.
That's fine and dandy, but there's absolutely no reason to get excited about this at all. In the slightest. Scarcely in the modern history of the Middle East can two leaders in weaker positions have held such a meeting. Mr Olmert's under pressure from just about everybody at home, over issues such as how last summer's war with Hizbollah came about, and even the treatment of holocaust victims. Mr Abbas has to meet people in the West Bank these days, because he can't go to Gaza since Hamas routed his Fatah party in a bloody but brief civil war. It's clear both men don't have a great deal of sway over their people right now.
When two leaders in the Middle East, or indeed anywhere, hold some talks to say they're going to hold some more talks, it's not exactly Earth-shattering news at the best of times. When those two leaders are Messrs Olmert and Abbas, it's fair to say the talking's not going to turn into anything more substantial anytime soon.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
It's Over
Five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor, accused of infecting hundreds of Libyan children with HIV, have been freed at last. They've been held in a Libyan jail for eight years, and at one stage were sentenced to death. But now they've been released as part of what's being described as a "full partnership" deal between Libya and the EU, of which Bulgaria is now a member.
This is Libya's latest step on the road to normal relations with Europe and other western countries. After years of sanctions following his bolshy behaviour in the 80s, and his subsequent refusal to hand over the Lockerbie bombing suspects, Libya's leader Colonel Gadaffi realised it was better to be on the inside rather than the outside in international relations, not least to help shore up his own domestic dictatorship. Following the Lockerbie trial, and then his decision to give up Libya's weapons of mass destruction programmes, this is another move towards becoming a regular sort of country again.
In typical Gadaffi style though, it's come at a price. The EU's now promising more medical aid and closer political ties to Tripoli, which can only make life better for ordinary Libyans, and therefore make their leader more popular. The canny way he's handled these moves to bring Libya back into the global fold, should make sure Gadaffi stays in power for the foreseeable future.
This is Libya's latest step on the road to normal relations with Europe and other western countries. After years of sanctions following his bolshy behaviour in the 80s, and his subsequent refusal to hand over the Lockerbie bombing suspects, Libya's leader Colonel Gadaffi realised it was better to be on the inside rather than the outside in international relations, not least to help shore up his own domestic dictatorship. Following the Lockerbie trial, and then his decision to give up Libya's weapons of mass destruction programmes, this is another move towards becoming a regular sort of country again.
In typical Gadaffi style though, it's come at a price. The EU's now promising more medical aid and closer political ties to Tripoli, which can only make life better for ordinary Libyans, and therefore make their leader more popular. The canny way he's handled these moves to bring Libya back into the global fold, should make sure Gadaffi stays in power for the foreseeable future.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Victory For Hamas
The Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, has tonight declared a state of emergency in the Palestinian territories. It's after another day of devastating violence in Gaza, when Fatah forces loyal to him took another fearful pounding from Hamas fighters. They now have just about total control of Gaza. Mr Abbas has also dissolved the laughably described 'unity' government the two factions have tried unsuccessfully to make work, and is hinting at new elections once things have calmed down.
It's difficult to see how things could have gone much better for Hamas over the last couple of days. After Fatah prevented them taking the sort of control over Gaza they felt they had earned through their victory in last year's elections, it wasn't surprising when that frustration spilled over into serious violence. Hamas have won a swift and dramatic military victory over their rivals, despite the tacit support being given to Fatah by Israel and the US. When those new elections roll round, Hamas will surely do even better than last time. Although they'll have to indulge Fatah and the West (who won't speak to Hamas because they don't recognise Israel's right to exist) and attempt some form of coalition, it'll be firmly on their terms this time.
Eventually, Israel, the US and the rest will all have to talk to Hamas. That day may be years away, but more election success for Hamas must surely bring it closer. Hamas now almost totally controls Gaza on the ground, and if in future elections Hamas can demonstrate it has the overwhelming support of all Palestinian people, the only way of getting nearer a wider peace deal involves getting round the table with them. Although it would be a brave Israeli leader who would do that, Hamas stands a much better chance than the beleagured President Abbas and his Fatah cronies of maintaining the support of the Palsetinian people in any peace process. The events of the last few days may end up being good not just for Hamas, but for everyone in the Middle East.
It's difficult to see how things could have gone much better for Hamas over the last couple of days. After Fatah prevented them taking the sort of control over Gaza they felt they had earned through their victory in last year's elections, it wasn't surprising when that frustration spilled over into serious violence. Hamas have won a swift and dramatic military victory over their rivals, despite the tacit support being given to Fatah by Israel and the US. When those new elections roll round, Hamas will surely do even better than last time. Although they'll have to indulge Fatah and the West (who won't speak to Hamas because they don't recognise Israel's right to exist) and attempt some form of coalition, it'll be firmly on their terms this time.
Eventually, Israel, the US and the rest will all have to talk to Hamas. That day may be years away, but more election success for Hamas must surely bring it closer. Hamas now almost totally controls Gaza on the ground, and if in future elections Hamas can demonstrate it has the overwhelming support of all Palestinian people, the only way of getting nearer a wider peace deal involves getting round the table with them. Although it would be a brave Israeli leader who would do that, Hamas stands a much better chance than the beleagured President Abbas and his Fatah cronies of maintaining the support of the Palsetinian people in any peace process. The events of the last few days may end up being good not just for Hamas, but for everyone in the Middle East.
Monday, June 11, 2007
"Everybody Is Shooting At Everybody"
The latest attempt at solving the violent wrangling between the two main Palestinian factions has spectacularly collapsed. There's been a fierce gun battle at a hospital between Hamas and Fatah fighters, following some earlier firing at a government building while the Hamas Prime Minister was inside chairing a cabinet meeting.
This mess is partly to do with how the rest of the world wants to deal with the Palestinians. Hamas won last year's elections, but the US, and more importantly Israel, won't talk to them, because they're terrorists. The Palestinian president though is Mahmoud Abbas, a Fatah man and a moderate still supported by Washington. Even the Israelis say they don't mind getting round the table with him, although various petty bickering about tax revenues prevented talks scheduled for last week taking place.
Ultimately, Hamas will have to be accommodated into the peace process, much as the IRA was in Northern Ireland. But first the firing must stop, and the guns must be put away. For as long as Palestinians continue to tear themselves apart by fighting amongst themselves, there doesn't seem much hope of that happening. The best future, ironically, may lie in Hamas becoming even stronger, at least politically. If Hamas can secure the Palestinian Presidency and establish itself as the only voice of the Palestinians, the US, Israel and everyone else will have to listen. Until that time, the rest of the world may continue to delude themselves into believing Mr Abbas is strong enough to deliver a peace deal all Palestinians can support. And that split in the Palestinian ranks will grow ever wider.
This mess is partly to do with how the rest of the world wants to deal with the Palestinians. Hamas won last year's elections, but the US, and more importantly Israel, won't talk to them, because they're terrorists. The Palestinian president though is Mahmoud Abbas, a Fatah man and a moderate still supported by Washington. Even the Israelis say they don't mind getting round the table with him, although various petty bickering about tax revenues prevented talks scheduled for last week taking place.
Ultimately, Hamas will have to be accommodated into the peace process, much as the IRA was in Northern Ireland. But first the firing must stop, and the guns must be put away. For as long as Palestinians continue to tear themselves apart by fighting amongst themselves, there doesn't seem much hope of that happening. The best future, ironically, may lie in Hamas becoming even stronger, at least politically. If Hamas can secure the Palestinian Presidency and establish itself as the only voice of the Palestinians, the US, Israel and everyone else will have to listen. Until that time, the rest of the world may continue to delude themselves into believing Mr Abbas is strong enough to deliver a peace deal all Palestinians can support. And that split in the Palestinian ranks will grow ever wider.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Talking Tough
Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has given a predictably tough response to the new Palestinian government, which features power-sharing between the rival Hamas and Fatah groups. He, as well as the US, have picked up on the part of the administration's platform that talks about resistance against Israel "in all its forms." Discussions about a Palestinian state are off the table until that line softens.
It's typical of the stern posturing we've seen from Mr Olmert since he became Prime Minister, when Ariel Sharon slipped into a coma. After a succession of Israeli leaders (such as Sharon) with strong military records, he feels like he needs to constantly prove what a robust figurehead he is, as if to make up for his lack of real fighting experience. He may yet even be forced to resign amid claims he and his similarly dovish defence secretary Amir Peretz actually cooked up the plan for last summer's war against Hizbollah months in advance.
Talking tough may keep Mr Olmert popular enough with the Israeli public to stay in power in the short-term, but it'll do nothing for the chances of long-term peace.
It's typical of the stern posturing we've seen from Mr Olmert since he became Prime Minister, when Ariel Sharon slipped into a coma. After a succession of Israeli leaders (such as Sharon) with strong military records, he feels like he needs to constantly prove what a robust figurehead he is, as if to make up for his lack of real fighting experience. He may yet even be forced to resign amid claims he and his similarly dovish defence secretary Amir Peretz actually cooked up the plan for last summer's war against Hizbollah months in advance.
Talking tough may keep Mr Olmert popular enough with the Israeli public to stay in power in the short-term, but it'll do nothing for the chances of long-term peace.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
