No Closer To A Deal In Cyprus

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has arrived in Cyprus, as he attempts to put new life into efforts to solve one of Europe's longest-running disputes. The latest round of peace talks have been taking place for more than a year, but the problems which have split the island in two go back decades.

To sum it up briefly, Cyprus used to be part of the Ottoman Empire (now Turkey), until it became part of the British Empire. Most of the people in Cyprus are Greek, and during the 1950s an insurgency aimed at overthrowing British rule and uniting Cyprus with Greece took place, ending in a deal which led to Cyprus becoming independent, something neither the Greeks nor the Turks especially wanted. Later, as the Turkish government began to worry that Greece was moving to bring Cyprus under its control, it invaded the north of the country, where most of the Turks lived. That was 36 years ago, and all that time there have been two Cypruses, the Greek in the south and the Turkish in the north, and that hasn't made anyone particularly happy, either.

There have been various attempts to thrash out some kind of better deal since, but all have failed. This latest round of talks had seemed more likely to succeed than most, not least because the political leaders of both communities in Cyprus seemed keen on it. But enough members of their electorates are not for keen for the talks to be fraught with political risk, and the Turkish-Cypriot leader seems likely to lose an election in April to a hardliner. So if there's going to be progress, it needs to be in the next few weeks, which is why Mr Ban is in town. But he's no miracle-worker, the chances of a significant breakthrough remain very remote.

Football Diplomacy Helps Turkey And Armenia Move On

The presidents of Turkey and Armenia will tonight attend a World Cup qualifying match between the countries. Nothing unusual about that on the face of it, until you consider the bitterness which has existed between the two peoples since hundreds of thousands of Armenians were killed by Turkey's predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, during and just after the First World War. Whether or not the killings can be called a genocide is one of many contentious issues which is still unresolved, but the good news is that both nations are at last moving forward politically.

A deal was recently agreed so Turkey and Armenia could finally establish diplomatic ties, and allowing the border between the countries to be re-opened. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was there to witness the signing of the accord, and no wonder, because the surprisingly large Armenian population of her own country (the Armenian diaspora is one of the world's most widely spread, partly because of the killings) has put plenty of pressure on Congress and forced the issue onto her agenda. Although many Armenians around the world were bitterly disappointed the deal didn't include a Turkish admission of genocide, there are plenty within Armenia itself who will now have opportunities that didn't exist before it was signed.

As is so often the case, this diplomacy comes down to money. Armenia is a poor country, and is right next to Turkey, which is the world's 17th largest economy. Armenian businessmen want to leave the past in the past and get on with trading with their neighbour and, through it, the world. The Turks meanwhile want to join the EU one day, and know that would not be possible without better relations with the Armenians. These economic and political forces have been helped along by the apparent personal chemistry between the two presidents, who first appeared together at last year's qualifier between the two nations in Armenia. That started the final round of diplomacy which has led to the deal and could, in time, help bring Turkey and Armenia closer to the rest of Europe.

Talking Turkey

The Iraqi government says it's going to do its best to rein in the Kurdish rebels, operating out of the far north of Iraq, who have been attacking Turkish soldiers. The most recent ambush over the weekend was the worst of its kind in a decade - it left 12 Turkish troops dead, and a further eight missing. The Kurdish fighters are separatists, who want to set up a Kurdish homeland in southern Turkey.

They've actually been fighting like this since 1984, but now they've decided to make a renewed effort to get what they want. The instability prompted by the Iraq war was always going to raise Kurdish hopes of some kind of independent country in the areas around northern Iraq and southern Turkey (which is why Turkey was so reluctant to get involved in the invasion, despite being a US ally and member of NATO). And there's no reason to believe the Iraqi government will be able to do much to prevent the campaign continuing. Despite the US surge, and yesterday's surprise announcement that violence in Iraq is down 70 percent since June, the Iraqi administration is still pretty weak and has its hands full simply remaining in power.

So what happens next? Probably some more attacks against Turkish soldiers, and possibly some in Turkish cities, which would certainly help Turkey's allies in Washington cast the conflict as part of its war on terror. If the campaign continues though, it'll be difficult for the US to prevent the Turks carrying out military attacks on Kurdish rebel positions in northern Iraq. Four years after it decided at the last moment not to join in the invasion of Iraq, the chaos caused by that ill-fated conflict may yet force Turkey to end up doing its own version.