Kosovo Slips Further Away From Serbia

It's been a good day for Kosovo. That's the little part of south-east Europe that used to be part of Yugoslavia and then Serbia, and was latterly run by the UN after the 1999 war waged by NATO to end Slobodan Milosevic's attempts at ethnic cleansing. Kosovo finally declared independence from Serbia in February, and since then nearly 50 other countries have recognised that independence. Today, two of the other bits of the old Yugoslavia, Montenegro and Macedonia, also did.

Serbia went through the motions of being angry about it, and expelling Montenegro's ambassador to Belgrade. The Serbian government has to do that, because there's still plenty of its citizens who believe Kosovo should always remain part of Serbia. That feeling's been central to the idea of Serb nationalism for more than six centuries, even though these days most of the people who live there are ethnic Albanians (the same Albanians Milosevic wanted to kick out back in 1999).

But even though Serbia also this week won a vote at the UN allowing it to challenge Kosovo's independence at the International Court of Justice, it's got no realistic chance of hanging on to its former province. It's already allowed back the ambassadors of western European countries which recognised Kosovo earlier in the year. The leaders in Belgrade know that if they want to continue to move their country closer to the rest of the world, and crucially the EU, they can't play games over Kosovo. When Serbia expresses disgust at the latest developments, it's really just keeping up appearances.

Keeping It All Together

African Union troops have helped the military of the Comoros Islands recapture the rogue island of Anjouan after a rebellion that's lasted a year. What happens in a tiny group of islands off the east coast of Africa doesn't have much obvious significance for the rest of the world, but it's another sign of how desperate countries both large and small are to keep their territory intact.

The two African countries which sent AU troops to help the Comoran authorities were Sudan and Tanzania. Both nations are struggling to control breakaway regions at home - in Sudan's case it's Darfur, while Tanzania's got Zanzibar. If African countries had allowed the Anjouan rebellion to succeed in Comoros, it would have set a dangerous precedent of permitting a restless part of a country to strike out on its own. No wonder then, that Sudan and Tanzania were so keen to help.

This idea of making sure secessionists don't get their way has coloured the recent international debate over Serbia and Kosovo. Russia, which has several restless republics in the Caucasus, was and is Serbia's biggest supporter. China, which has faced some grim international headlines of late over Tibet, kept firmly out of the Kosovo issue. You can bet both were watching events in the little Comoros Islands pretty closely.

Northern Kosovo, Northern Ireland?

We've seen the worst violence in Kosovo since the former province of Serbia declared independence last month. UN police have been forced to pull out of Serb areas of the northern city of Mitrovica, after clashes with Serbs angry at the fact they're no longer living in Serbia. While most people in Kosovo are ethnic Albanians, hence their desire for self-government, most people in the northern part are Serbs. Unsurprisingly, this ethnic split creates tension in divided cities such as Mitrovica.

More elections are coming up in Serbia in May, after the governing coalition collapsed amid squabbling over what to do about Kosovo. A narrow majority of Serb politicians would like their country to join the EU one day, but with the big European countries recognising Kosovo's independence, that makes their pro-EU stance considerably less popular. Others would rather throw in their lot with Serbia's old ally Russia, and it's these nationalists who may now take power in May's elections.

They want things to go back to how they've been for centuries, with Kosovo as a province of Serbia. While that may not happen, some kind of compromise offer could emerge, with nationalist Serbs pushing for the partition of Kosovo. Much like Ireland, the northern Serb-dominated part could once again become part of Serbia, and in return a nationalist Serb government may agree to recognise the independence of the rest of Kosovo. Such a deal would probably be unpalatable to the Kosovars, not to mention most of the rest of the world. But don't be surprised if the borders of the Balkans are re-drawn again in the near future.

"As Long As We Live, Kosovo Is Serbia"

To put it mildly, the big demonstration in Belgrade yesterday didn't go off without trouble. Crowds of angry Serbs, furious at Kosovo's declaration of independence and the support for it in western countries, attacked foreign embassies in their capital. Parts of the US embassy were set on fire, as hundreds of people went on the rampage after the rally had ended. Earlier, Serbia's Prime Minister Kostunica told the protest, "as long as we live, Kosovo is Serbia."

So things are starting to look a bit dodgy. Although one night of violence in Belgrade doesn't mean a return to the kind of wars we saw in the 1990s, the US, Britain and EU are moving quickly to tell Serbia it's got to stop. Lots of people still have guns stashed away in their lofts in the former Yugoslavia, and the situation could get out of hand frighteningly quickly.

Serbia is being emboldened by the support of Russia and China. They agree with Serbia that Kosovo's declaration of independence on Sunday broke international law. The main reason they agree is that neither wants regions of their own countries to go down the same path as Kosovo, and break away. Both Russia and China joined the UN in strongly condemning the embassy attacks, but their support for Serbia's political position means Belgrade isn't friendless as it tries to hang on to Kosovo in the face of opposition from the US and most of the EU.

The pressure from the west should ensure the violence doesn't get any worse though. Mr Kostunica may well keep up the fiery rhetoric. After all, he's got his own political future to think about, and desperately doesn't want to go down in history as the Serb PM who gave away Kosovo. But there's no sign yet of another war, and that's the thing everyone must try to avoid.

Serbia's Anger Over Kosovo

Thousands of Serbs will today take part in a demonstration in Belgrade against Kosovo's declaration of independence. The Government's letting everyone go for free on the country's trains, and even tennis star Novak Djokovic is going to be there. Everyone in Serbia it seems, is not best pleased.

And it's easy to understand why. Kosovo, although nine in ten of its citizens is now of Albanian origin, holds a special place in Serbia's history. The 1389 Battle of Kosovo (against the Turks) is a key event in the rise of Serb nationalism. Six hundred years on, in 1989, Yugoslavia's Serb President Slobodan Milosevic used the anniversary of the battle to deliver a blood-and-thunder nationalist speech, that set off a chain of events leading to the wars of the 1990s.

The last of those wars involved Kosovo itself, as NATO forces bombed Serbia to prevent the Milosevic regime 'ethnically cleansing' Kosovo of its Albanians. Just like the war in Bosnia, the idea from the Serb point of view was to get rid of non-Serbs from areas traditionally considered part of Serbia, to create a 'Greater Serbia' for them and them alone.

Things are a bit different this time. Despite Serb anger over Kosovo's independence (a move encouraged by the US and some EU countries, which have been running Kosovo since the war), it doesn't look as though the Balkans will suffer another war this time. For a start, the arch-warmonger and nationalist Milosevic is dead, and the more extreme Serb nationalists were beaten in recent elections. Also, NATO and the EU are still in Kosovo, and no matter how angry his people may get, Prime Minister Kostunica surely wouldn't risk another war with the west.

Hopefully, Kosovo's independence will end up as one of the final chapters in the story of Yugoslavia's disintegration. After two decades of bloody conflict Yugoslavia has now split into seven nations - the original six countries are independent, and now Kosovo has separated from Serbia. But even though the map of the Balkans looks a bit neater today, the divisions caused by all the fighting will be remembered for as long as that first Battle of Kosovo, back in 1389. Even if no more blood is shed, the bitterness will remain.

Trouble Ahead

A former rebel fighter has claimed victory in elections in Kosovo. Hashim Thaci's party seems likely to lead a grand coalition of Kosovar politicians, into a final showdown with Serbia over the future of the breakaway province. Next month, mediators are supposed to report on attempts to reach a compromise deal. With no sign of one, Mr Thaci says he'll declare independence anyway.

The long-running battle over Kosovo's future, with Serbia insisting it keeps control over the province, and Kosovo's ethnic Albanians demanding independence, has its roots much further back than the NATO war of 1999. In recent months, the Kosovo question's been fought on Cold War lines, with Serbia's traditional ally Russia threatening to use its veto at the UN to block independence.

But the talking can't go on forever, and with a worsening political crisis apparently just ahead, there's no doubt armed conflict is a possibility. If that wasn't bad enough, the prospect of the wider Balkans once again being engulfed in war is not totally unlikely. That's because, alnogside the Kosovo problem, Bosnia's currently in the midst of its worst political crisis since the 1995 peace deal brought years of bitter fighting to an overdue end.

The common factor in both crises is that Serbia feels its interests are under threat. Serbia's long-time goal in the area is to create a Greater Serbia - keeping hold of Kosovo and incorporating the Serb chunk of Bosnia into the country proper. It was this ambition that led to the war and ethnic cleansing of the 1990s. If Serbia believes it's being backed into a corner, its militia fighters may yet take up arms once again. There are already reports of the secret mustering of men in Bosnian Serb territory, and in a land where many still keep rifles in their attics, that's a very serious prospect.

EU peacekeeping forces are currently still in Bosnia, but their mandate runs out this week. It's not really clear whether they'll legally be able to stay or not. Clearly, the departure of international troops would be very badly timed, and could embolden any militia groups who are considering taking up arms. As things come to a head, it's up to diplomats in Europe and elsewhere to make the Balkans their top priority, to avoid another senseless and bloody war.

Drifting

The top international diplomat who runs Bosnia is stepping down. It had been hoped Christian Schwarz-Schilling would be the last foreign figure to take the role, effectively acting as an overlord to the Bosnian, Croat and Serb politicians who run the still bitterly divided country. But then, it had been hoped the man he replaced, Paddy Ashdown, would be the last too. Sadly, not enough progress has been made, and so a Slovak official's now going to do the job.

Although there's no danger of Bosnia slipping back into war, the huge animosity between the sides means it's difficult to see how things can improve enough to let them totally govern themselves. The wounds from the war of the 1990s are still wide open, and the three groups just hate each other too much to work together. The continuing doubts over whether Kosovo will become independent from Serbia simply adds to the somewhat uncertain future in the Balkans. We're now told full power will be returned to politicians in Bosnia by the middle of next year, but don't be surprised if it drifts still further.

A Deal, At Last

Better news from Belgrade, where parties have finally agreed a coalition deal more than three months after Serbia's general election. The really good bit is that the agreement keeps out the largest party in the parliament, the ultra-nationalist Radicals. Their Milosevic-style rhetoric and firm opposition to an independent Kosovo had caused plenty of people around the world to wonder whether Serbia might go back to the bad old days of the 1990s.

Within a couple of hours of the agreement being announced, the draft resolution on Kosovo was circulated at the UN. Despite grumblings from Russia, the political deal in Belgrade makes it a lot more likely we'll see an independent Kosovo fairly soon. It also means joining the EU is back on the cards for the Serbs, with what they call pre-membership talks certain to restart once the new government's in place.

Serbia's mainstream politicians have proved with this agreement they can turn their backs on the old ways. But they, the EU, the UN, and everyone else, must do a better job of convincing the Serb public of the way forward. The rise of the Radicals proves many are still inclined to flirt with the worst kind of nationalism.

Endgame

The US and European countries intend to circulate a draft resolution at the UN, that would give independence to Kosovo. The province of Serbia's basically been run by the UN since NATO's 1999 war, prompted by the then Serb regime's policy of driving out ethnic Albanians. It looks as if Serbian politicians will have to admit defeat in their efforts to keep Kosovo part of their country.

Or maybe not just yet. Russia's still hinting it might veto the plan, as it can do because it's one of the permanent five members of the UN Security Council. You might wonder why Russia still bothers trying to back up its old allies in Belgrade, but there's a clear parallel between the recent rise of national feeling in both countries. Russia's Vladimir Putin's trying very hard to extend his influence over just about anyone who'll give him the time of day, and countries that have been friendly to Moscow in the past are proving easier to win over. The successes of hardline politicians in Serbia, at times echoing the bad old days of Milosevic, proves Serb nationalism didn't die when he did. The UN, the US and Europe must avoid forcing Kosovo into independence any earlier than is absolutely necessary, or the Balkans may again prove to be the source of big trouble.

"The Only Viable Option"

The UN's man in Kosovo, ex-Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, has delivered a report to the Security Council saying the territory should become an independent country. Kosovo, a part of Serbia that's full of Albanians, has been run by the UN since the war in 1999. The plans would give it an internationally-supervised sovereignty. If all's well, Kosovo would get full independence after that. The Kosovo Albanians are happy enough with this. What actually happens next is up to Serbia and its old ally Russia.

Kosovo has a near-mythical place in Serb history as a cradle of Serb nationalism, and they desperately don't want to let it go. In 1989, Slobodan Milosevic's blood-and-thunder rhetoric on the anniversary of the 1389 Battle of Kosovo helped stoke anti-Muslim feeling among Serbs, which eventually led to the collapse of Yugoslavia and the wars of the mid-nineties. Later, he tried to kick all the Albanians out of Kosovo, which led to the war with NATO, which ironically looks like guaranteeing that Kosovo won't be part of Serbia anymore.

Losing Kosovo would make any Serb politician very unpopular indeed, especially as most of them were recently re-elected because of their firm opposition to exactly that. But the Serb politicians also know there's little chance of doing all the things needed to make their country better again (such as starting talks on EU entry) unless the Kosovo problem is sorted out. They're trying to stall things as long as they can, in the hope the UN agrees to an autonomous Kosovo that stops short of full independence.

This is where the Russians come in. They're already calling for more talks, and by threatening to wield their veto in the Security Council, they might make sure that happens. The Russians are doing this partly because they feel a sense of allegiance to their old friends in Belgrade, but mainly because President Putin is set on trying to keep Russia's sphere of influence in place. It's another example of the Kremlin setting itself up as a challenger to the west, rather than a friend.

The Balkans - A Warning From History

Here's something that could be a sign of much worse to come. The West has been treading incredibly carefully around Kosovo in the eight years since the war, desperate to avoid another Balkan mega-conflict. But eventually the polar opposites of an ethnic Albanian population keen on independence, and a Serbian people and its leaders who don't want to give the province away, are going to clash. And as the UN edges Kosovo towards independence, the weekend's violence shows that clash is starting to happen now.

The big reason to be worried is what hardline politicians in Serbia might decide to do. The strong performance of the hard-right Radicals in last month's elections can only embolden them as they negotiate with the West. They see keeping Kosovo part of Serbia as the main aim of their party - and many of their supporters believe it's the best way of continuing to fight the battles of (whisper it) Slobodan Milosevic. It was his suspension of autonomy for Kosovo and his blood-and-thunder rhetoric on the issue in 1989 that helped tear Yugoslavia into blood-soaked pieces. As the UN tries to play the midwife to an independent Kosovo, it must make sure it throws the hardline Serbs enough bones to keep violence off the streets. If that includes denying Kosovo some of the trappings of a sovereign state, then so be it. A bad misjudgement and things could get out of control very quickly.