France is rallying international support for Chad's president, Idriss Deby, after his forces apparently beat back rebels following street battles in the capital, N'Djamena. During a weekend in which fighting almost reached the gates of the presidential palace itself, Mr Deby must be feeling pretty relieved. Especially now Chad's former colonial masters have used the UN to state clearly they want him to survive.
For France to claim Mr Deby is the right man to lead Chad because he was "democratically elected" is only true up to a point. He seized power in a coup in 1990, and although he's won elections since, the most recent in 2006 was a controversial poll boycotted by the opposition. But France and everyone else should support him now anyway. If the rebels, backed by the odious regime in neighbouring Sudan, took power, Chad's future would not look good. Not that it looks too great as it is, not least because the rebels will surely be back. But a continuation of the Deby regime with international support at least offers something that resembles stability. With inflation now rising dramatically by the hour, stability is what Chad badly needs.
Showing posts with label Chad. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chad. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Saturday, February 02, 2008
A Coup On The Cards In Chad
Fighting between government forces and rebels is reported from the streets of the capital of Chad, N'Djamena. The rebels, who've made a stunning advance west across the country in recent days, say they will take the presidential palace within hours. President Deby, who himself seized power in a coup back in 1990, is said to still be inside the palace, although his time seems to be almost up.
What's going on in Chad is closely tied up with events in neighbouring Sudan, and its troubled western province of Darfur. Sudan accuses Chad of backing rebel forces in Darfur, while Chad in turn blames Sudan for supporting the rebels now bearing down on central N'Djamena. The hundreds of thousands of refugees of both nationalities forced into eastern Chad by the Darfur crisis, have added to the instability, and helped strengthen the rebels.
France is the colonial power in Chad, and has now reversed its advice to its citizens to get out. Instead, it's telling them all to stay indoors, as the street fighting continues. Deployment of an international force to Chad has been delayed by France's insistence that it look after its own people first, and seeing as France would supply most of the troops for any UN force, nobody else is really in a position to argue.
As for Chad, it's possible a change in government (albeit by military coup) could help ease the region's problems, as all sides find it easier to negotiate with someone new. But that's pretty unlikely. Instead, expect supporters of the apparently-soon-to-be-ousted President Deby to keep fighting, for months and years, until everyone's more or less forgotten what exactly it is they're fighting for.
What's going on in Chad is closely tied up with events in neighbouring Sudan, and its troubled western province of Darfur. Sudan accuses Chad of backing rebel forces in Darfur, while Chad in turn blames Sudan for supporting the rebels now bearing down on central N'Djamena. The hundreds of thousands of refugees of both nationalities forced into eastern Chad by the Darfur crisis, have added to the instability, and helped strengthen the rebels.
France is the colonial power in Chad, and has now reversed its advice to its citizens to get out. Instead, it's telling them all to stay indoors, as the street fighting continues. Deployment of an international force to Chad has been delayed by France's insistence that it look after its own people first, and seeing as France would supply most of the troops for any UN force, nobody else is really in a position to argue.
As for Chad, it's possible a change in government (albeit by military coup) could help ease the region's problems, as all sides find it easier to negotiate with someone new. But that's pretty unlikely. Instead, expect supporters of the apparently-soon-to-be-ousted President Deby to keep fighting, for months and years, until everyone's more or less forgotten what exactly it is they're fighting for.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
An Escalation
Oh dear. It looks as though the armies of Chad and Sudan have fought directly for the first time, in a remote bit of Sudan's western province of Darfur. The two governments have been accusing each other for quite a while of backing rebel forces in the other's country, and it seems this inevitable escalation has finally happened. Some people already refer to what's going on as the Central African War, and that seems a more accurate description as each month goes by.
The main immediate hope that things might get better is embodied by the not-always-particularly-effective UN. They've been trying to get into Darfur for ages to try to deal with the enormous humanitarian disaster, but the Sudanese government won't let them, because it's they who've pretty much caused it all. The African Union does have some people on the ground, but not enough, although it does claim it's close to finally getting Sudan to let those UN troops (somewhat laughably billed as 'peacekeepers') in to join them.
China is Sudan's biggest economic supporter, and has frustrated efforts at the UN to sort things out more quickly. But the focus on Beijing's attitude only hides the fact the eventual solution here will be an African solution. The African Union is clearly not strong enough on its own yet to do much to bring it about, so it's up to South Africa's Thabo Mbeki and others to apply more of a squeeze on Sudan, before fighting between Chad and Sudan starts to happen every day.
The main immediate hope that things might get better is embodied by the not-always-particularly-effective UN. They've been trying to get into Darfur for ages to try to deal with the enormous humanitarian disaster, but the Sudanese government won't let them, because it's they who've pretty much caused it all. The African Union does have some people on the ground, but not enough, although it does claim it's close to finally getting Sudan to let those UN troops (somewhat laughably billed as 'peacekeepers') in to join them.
China is Sudan's biggest economic supporter, and has frustrated efforts at the UN to sort things out more quickly. But the focus on Beijing's attitude only hides the fact the eventual solution here will be an African solution. The African Union is clearly not strong enough on its own yet to do much to bring it about, so it's up to South Africa's Thabo Mbeki and others to apply more of a squeeze on Sudan, before fighting between Chad and Sudan starts to happen every day.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Losing Patience
The pressure's growing on Sudan to let an international peacekeeping force into its Darfur province, which has been devastated by mass slaughter over the last four years. The US, Britain and others are talking about extending sanctions and other measures including a no-fly zone, if Sudan continues to refuse to let the UN troops in.
Although Sudan will probably try to delay things a bit longer, it looks like the force will finally get on the ground sooner rather than later. The arrival of the troops won't guarantee the violence will finish, but it should mean the end of large-scale systematic killing. That should also prevent the fighting from spreading further into neighbouring Chad and the Central African Republic. But all of that will be just a preamble to the really important stuff - peace talks.
Last year's attempt at an agreement failed because not all the various factions in Darfur were on board. Once the UN's allowed in to make things a bit more stable though, discussions with a genuine chance of success should be possible. If the US, Britain and others are going to beat the Sudanese government with the stick of sanctions, they need to offer all sides the carrot of talks too. Otherwise not only will there be no chance of a deal, there'll be no chance of stopping the killing either.
Although Sudan will probably try to delay things a bit longer, it looks like the force will finally get on the ground sooner rather than later. The arrival of the troops won't guarantee the violence will finish, but it should mean the end of large-scale systematic killing. That should also prevent the fighting from spreading further into neighbouring Chad and the Central African Republic. But all of that will be just a preamble to the really important stuff - peace talks.
Last year's attempt at an agreement failed because not all the various factions in Darfur were on board. Once the UN's allowed in to make things a bit more stable though, discussions with a genuine chance of success should be possible. If the US, Britain and others are going to beat the Sudanese government with the stick of sanctions, they need to offer all sides the carrot of talks too. Otherwise not only will there be no chance of a deal, there'll be no chance of stopping the killing either.
Friday, February 16, 2007
French Lesson
The talks over the Darfur crisis - or Central African war if you prefer - seem to have gone ok. Sudan, Chad and the Central African Republic have agreed not to support the assortment of rebels attacking each other's countries. And the UN's given a timely warning of the spread of militia violence into the bits of eastern Chad flooded with Darfur refugees. Hopefully everyone will finally agree to let a UN-led force in to support the current weak deployment from the African Union. Equally hopefully, that would limit the spread of the violence. We've heard all this sort of thing before, but there's reason to be very cautiously optimistic, which is something.
The French can probably feel pretty pleased with themselves having knocked heads together at the summit in Cannes. But this interview with Rwanda's President Kagame offers a lesson in how the French style of diplomacy has failed in Africa in the recent past. As the leader of a Tutsi rebel army it was Kagame who led his people to victory in the 1994 civil war, but not before up to a million Tutsi and moderate Hutu civilians had been slaughtered by Hutu militia. Kagame hates the French for their arms shipments to the Hutus before the genocide began, and their continual attempts to blame him for kicking off the whole thing by assassinating the presidents of both Rwanda and Burundi. They won't let that allegation drop, so he's finally turning his back on them to join the Commonwealth.
One subtext of the French involvement in Rwanda before 1994, and in the Darfur crisis now, is an effort by Paris to retain its influence over French-speaking Africa. That led them to arm and support some of the world's most evil men in Rwanda, who went on to carry out a terrible genocide. If France is to play the honest broker now, it must leave such selfish ambitions aside.
The French can probably feel pretty pleased with themselves having knocked heads together at the summit in Cannes. But this interview with Rwanda's President Kagame offers a lesson in how the French style of diplomacy has failed in Africa in the recent past. As the leader of a Tutsi rebel army it was Kagame who led his people to victory in the 1994 civil war, but not before up to a million Tutsi and moderate Hutu civilians had been slaughtered by Hutu militia. Kagame hates the French for their arms shipments to the Hutus before the genocide began, and their continual attempts to blame him for kicking off the whole thing by assassinating the presidents of both Rwanda and Burundi. They won't let that allegation drop, so he's finally turning his back on them to join the Commonwealth.
One subtext of the French involvement in Rwanda before 1994, and in the Darfur crisis now, is an effort by Paris to retain its influence over French-speaking Africa. That led them to arm and support some of the world's most evil men in Rwanda, who went on to carry out a terrible genocide. If France is to play the honest broker now, it must leave such selfish ambitions aside.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
A Mess
Continuing his farewell tour before he finally buggers off into political retirement, President Chirac is hosting a Franco-African summit in Cannes. Among the guests is the foreign minister of Chad, who doesn't seem too optimistic of any progress on the question of his country's on-off-sort-of-war with Sudan next door. While the mass slaughter in Sudan's Darfur province has been pretty widely publicised (though not nearly widely enough - and next-to-sod-all has been done about it) over the last few years, the potential for the killing to extend elsewhere is something everyone in the West needs to keep much closer tabs on.
It goes like this. Darfur is the big bit in the west of Sudan that borders Chad. A Muslim militia force backed by the Sudanese government has been fighting black African anti-government rebels there. That's led to the deaths of a UN-estimated 400,000 civilians since 2003. Millions more have become refugees, many heading to Chad. And so the violence has followed, with Chad accusing Sudan of trying to invade to topple its government. Sudan claims Chad is supporting those rebels back in Darfur. In recent months, the fighting has absorbed the similar civil war in the Central African Republic, which as you'll guess by the name also neighbours this whole area.
The French know it's pretty much up to them to take the lead in preventing things getting even worse. The UN is predictably powerless, and, despite its plans to put more of its military in Africa, there's no appetite in the US for it to get involved. There's no strong regional power, so the French as the former colonial masters of Chad and the CAR are the best option. It's a pattern established by their own involvement in the civil war in the Ivory Coast, and the British operation in its former colony of Sierra Leone.
If the talks get nowhere, which is just about certain, France ought to deploy smallish forces to shore up the governments in Chad and the CAR. Although that won't stop the killing in Darfur, it would make the conflict much less likely to take a stronger grip in those countries. But with an election looming in France there's no way that'll happen for the time being, if at all. Hoping for the best hasn't proved an effective strategy so far. It still looks like the only strategy the West is prepared to follow.
It goes like this. Darfur is the big bit in the west of Sudan that borders Chad. A Muslim militia force backed by the Sudanese government has been fighting black African anti-government rebels there. That's led to the deaths of a UN-estimated 400,000 civilians since 2003. Millions more have become refugees, many heading to Chad. And so the violence has followed, with Chad accusing Sudan of trying to invade to topple its government. Sudan claims Chad is supporting those rebels back in Darfur. In recent months, the fighting has absorbed the similar civil war in the Central African Republic, which as you'll guess by the name also neighbours this whole area.
The French know it's pretty much up to them to take the lead in preventing things getting even worse. The UN is predictably powerless, and, despite its plans to put more of its military in Africa, there's no appetite in the US for it to get involved. There's no strong regional power, so the French as the former colonial masters of Chad and the CAR are the best option. It's a pattern established by their own involvement in the civil war in the Ivory Coast, and the British operation in its former colony of Sierra Leone.
If the talks get nowhere, which is just about certain, France ought to deploy smallish forces to shore up the governments in Chad and the CAR. Although that won't stop the killing in Darfur, it would make the conflict much less likely to take a stronger grip in those countries. But with an election looming in France there's no way that'll happen for the time being, if at all. Hoping for the best hasn't proved an effective strategy so far. It still looks like the only strategy the West is prepared to follow.
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