It's been a good day for Kosovo. That's the little part of south-east Europe that used to be part of Yugoslavia and then Serbia, and was latterly run by the UN after the 1999 war waged by NATO to end Slobodan Milosevic's attempts at ethnic cleansing. Kosovo finally declared independence from Serbia in February, and since then nearly 50 other countries have recognised that independence. Today, two of the other bits of the old Yugoslavia, Montenegro and Macedonia, also did.
Serbia went through the motions of being angry about it, and expelling Montenegro's ambassador to Belgrade. The Serbian government has to do that, because there's still plenty of its citizens who believe Kosovo should always remain part of Serbia. That feeling's been central to the idea of Serb nationalism for more than six centuries, even though these days most of the people who live there are ethnic Albanians (the same Albanians Milosevic wanted to kick out back in 1999).
But even though Serbia also this week won a vote at the UN allowing it to challenge Kosovo's independence at the International Court of Justice, it's got no realistic chance of hanging on to its former province. It's already allowed back the ambassadors of western European countries which recognised Kosovo earlier in the year. The leaders in Belgrade know that if they want to continue to move their country closer to the rest of the world, and crucially the EU, they can't play games over Kosovo. When Serbia expresses disgust at the latest developments, it's really just keeping up appearances.
Showing posts with label Montenegro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Montenegro. Show all posts
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
The Trail's Gone Cold
Authorities in Montenegro spent the weekend talking to various members of the Karadzic family, amid rumours the fugitive Radovan Karadzic has been hiding out there lately. The former political leader of the Bosnian Serbs has been on the run for more than a decade, as has his military henchman Ratko Mladic. Despite being Europe's most wanted men, little's been heard of them in all that time.
It seems certain both are somewhere in either Serbia, Montenegro, or the Republika Srpska, which is the Serb bit of Bosnia. But a mixture of some of Europe's roughest terrain, fiercely loyal elements in the Serb military, and general incompetence and corruption among local officials, has made it easy for them to remain at large. But they'll be caught eventually, and it's the EU that holds the key to how quickly it'll happen.
The other Balkan countries are casting envious eyes at Slovenia, which was barely touched by the war and is firmly in the club these days. It's twice as prosperous as the rest of the former Yugoslavia, and proudly flies the EU flag from its embassies around the world. The other nations are still exhausted by the war, and need the prospect of EU entry to help them establish themselves. But Brussels rightly won't talk until all the war criminals are handed over. Croatia's government finally gave in 15 months ago, risking mass unpopularity with its people by giving up its most wanted fugitive, Ante Gotovina. A national hero for leading the Croats to victory over the Serbs in 1995, he's now answering questions about hundreds of dead Serb civilians. Croatia's reward is likely EU membership within two years, which will mean money, investment and lots more tourism on its Adriatic coast.
It's money and investment that's even more desperately needed in Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. But as long as politicians and police in each country think the capture of Karadzic and Mladic would make enough of the public angry, they won't try too hard to find them. That's why it's up to the EU to make a big show of twisting arms. It should do two things: first, set a deadline of later this year, and tell the three governments that if they're not in custody by then, talks on EU membership will be off the table for a generation; and also put up a much bigger cash reward for whoever hands them in, in the hope it'll persuade someone shielding them to finally betray them. Those two juicy carrots might just do the trick, but it's up to Brussels to make it happen.
It seems certain both are somewhere in either Serbia, Montenegro, or the Republika Srpska, which is the Serb bit of Bosnia. But a mixture of some of Europe's roughest terrain, fiercely loyal elements in the Serb military, and general incompetence and corruption among local officials, has made it easy for them to remain at large. But they'll be caught eventually, and it's the EU that holds the key to how quickly it'll happen.
The other Balkan countries are casting envious eyes at Slovenia, which was barely touched by the war and is firmly in the club these days. It's twice as prosperous as the rest of the former Yugoslavia, and proudly flies the EU flag from its embassies around the world. The other nations are still exhausted by the war, and need the prospect of EU entry to help them establish themselves. But Brussels rightly won't talk until all the war criminals are handed over. Croatia's government finally gave in 15 months ago, risking mass unpopularity with its people by giving up its most wanted fugitive, Ante Gotovina. A national hero for leading the Croats to victory over the Serbs in 1995, he's now answering questions about hundreds of dead Serb civilians. Croatia's reward is likely EU membership within two years, which will mean money, investment and lots more tourism on its Adriatic coast.
It's money and investment that's even more desperately needed in Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. But as long as politicians and police in each country think the capture of Karadzic and Mladic would make enough of the public angry, they won't try too hard to find them. That's why it's up to the EU to make a big show of twisting arms. It should do two things: first, set a deadline of later this year, and tell the three governments that if they're not in custody by then, talks on EU membership will be off the table for a generation; and also put up a much bigger cash reward for whoever hands them in, in the hope it'll persuade someone shielding them to finally betray them. Those two juicy carrots might just do the trick, but it's up to Brussels to make it happen.
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